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Pattern Mega March 2023

iGRXY said:
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Why could we not get this in Mid January.
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It rhymes with Na Liña.


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iGRXY said:
1678881600-dLjbDxO9R7k.png

1678881600-a00gCGL3puQ.png

1678881600-Z1rPpRGCNwU.png

Why could we not get this in Mid January.
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The core of the cold is still seems to be in the Midwest. However with those beautiful negative anomolies off the Canandian east coast, maybe we'd CAD into some nice cold rains.

We need those nice purples over us like the control showed yesterday. We get those in the means, maybe there's a chance.
 
iGRXY said:
This is the thing, March snow happens but most large storms have been within the first few days of March typically. We are getting about a good of an H5 pattern as you want to deliver really cold and well below average temps for a large junk of the month as it looks right now. But even with a large displacement of cold air in the eastern US and 15-20 degree below average temps, it's still going to be in the upper 30's and lower 40's more than likely outside of the mountains. So while yes we keep winter around, it's still not cold enough to snow in unless you get closer to record breaking type cold which is extremely tough to rely on.
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You’re not wrong in that it’s more rare, but there are exceptions. Certainly northern areas of the SE are more favored, though.

(Here’s a few examples of some nice very late storms…NC maps, sorry it’s all I have)

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Now maybe because of climate change it’s just not possible to get these anymore. Maybe. But we saw accumulating snowfall in the region in lowland areas in April as recently as 2019, so I’m not so sure. I still say if we get a good pattern in mid-March it’s game on. It’s a tougher hill to climb than in mid-January, obviously, though. More has to go right.

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superjames1992 said:
You’re not wrong in that it’s more rare, but there are exceptions. Certainly northern areas of the SE are more favored, though.

(Here’s a few examples of some nice very late storms…NC maps, sorry it’s all I have)

View attachment 133758

View attachment 133757

View attachment 133754

View attachment 133750

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Now maybe because of climate change it’s just not possible to get these anymore. Maybe. But we saw accumulating snowfall in the region in lowland areas in April as recently as 2019, so I’m not so sure. I still say if we get a good pattern in mid-March it’s game on. It’s a tougher hill to climb than in mid-January, obviously, though. More has to go right.

View attachment 133759
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Agreed and you forgot to put 3/12/2017 up which was more widespread that 4/2019
 
It's hard to stay below freezing in mid March unless you are snowing like crazy or it's a once per 25 year airmass. Looking at the eps plumes 8 members have below 35 highs here over the coldest 4 day stretch so you are looking at about a 4% chance right now. That said there is a high % of the eps members that drive 850s below 0 and keep them there through the 4 day period. This time of year you have to understand that you are going to be fighting warmth in the 925 to sfc layer but having something supportive above 925 at least puts you in the game
 
SD said:
It's hard to stay below freezing in mid March unless you are snowing like crazy or it's a once per 25 year airmass. Looking at the eps plumes 8 members have below 35 highs here over the coldest 4 day stretch so you are looking at about a 4% chance right now. That said there is a high % of the eps members that drive 850s below 0 and keep them there through the 4 day period. This time of year you have to understand that you are going to be fighting warmth in the 925 to sfc layer but having something supportive above 925 at least puts you in the game
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It’s certainly not a good situation for the snowpack sticking around as the chances are we’ll be back in the. 50s/60s after any potential storm within a day or two. And timing matters more. Nighttime is best to not have to deal with daytime heating and the harsh sun angle, which is approaching the levels of late September by then. Certainly not going to see extended cold or anything like that. March storms are less than ideal because of all of this, but we have to take what we can get.
 
SD said:
It's hard to stay below freezing in mid March unless you are snowing like crazy or it's a once per 25 year airmass. Looking at the eps plumes 8 members have below 35 highs here over the coldest 4 day stretch so you are looking at about a 4% chance right now. That said there is a high % of the eps members that drive 850s below 0 and keep them there through the 4 day period. This time of year you have to understand that you are going to be fighting warmth in the 925 to sfc layer but having something supportive above 925 at least puts you in the game
Click to expand...
Even with intense snowfall it’s hard to stay below freezing in mid to late March. The late March 1983 storm had 10.3” of daytime snow in CLT but the lowest temperature during that storm was 32… even when you look at the 1993 Superstorm, a lot of areas outside the mountains were in the low 30s during the heaviest snowfall.
 
Chazwin said:
Even with intense snowfall it’s hard to stay below freezing in mid to late March. The late March 1983 storm had 10.3” of daytime snow in CLT but the lowest temperature during that storm was 32… even when you look at the 1993 Superstorm, a lot of areas outside the mountains were in the low 30s during the heaviest snowfall.
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I was looking up the 1983 storm and came across this maps. Surely it can’t be right. Looks like it goes from 10” to nothing in like 30 or 40 miles. IMG_0751.jpg


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Snowlover87 said:
I was looking up the 1983 storm and came across this maps. Surely it can’t be right. Looks like it goes from 10” to nothing in like 30 or 40 miles. View attachment 133766


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As someone who’s lived in the CLT area my whole life, that is very believable. The Carolina Crusher had a very similar sharp cutoff on the NW side as well. Southeastern Cabarrus County had 12-14” while northwest parts of the county 30 miles away had 2-3” with another 10-12 miles had basically nothing
 
Snowlover87 said:
It's a little concerning that the warmest anomalies are in the southeast. Despite all the cold, parts of the southeast still above normal ? I would definitely like this look if I lived in Chicago or Pittsburgh.
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Well I think this is because the SER is still present for part of this time frame.


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superjames1992 said:
You’re not wrong in that it’s more rare, but there are exceptions. Certainly northern areas of the SE are more favored, though.

(Here’s a few examples of some nice very late storms…NC maps, sorry it’s all I have)

View attachment 133758

View attachment 133757

View attachment 133754

View attachment 133750

View attachment 133751

View attachment 133752

Now maybe because of climate change it’s just not possible to get these anymore. Maybe. But we saw accumulating snowfall in the region in lowland areas in April as recently as 2019, so I’m not so sure. I still say if we get a good pattern in mid-March it’s game on. It’s a tougher hill to climb than in mid-January, obviously, though. More has to go right.

View attachment 133759
Click to expand...
accum.19810323.gif


Another nice late March event.
 
Chazwin said:
Even with intense snowfall it’s hard to stay below freezing in mid to late March. The late March 1983 storm had 10.3” of daytime snow in CLT but the lowest temperature during that storm was 32… even when you look at the 1993 Superstorm, a lot of areas outside the mountains were in the low 30s during the heaviest snowfall.
Click to expand...
Same here. Woke up to 8” on the ground that year and it was gone by nightfall. I view March snows as bonus “enjoy the moment” events - you just aren’t going to get snowed-in barring a 100 year kind of thing. Even the ‘93 blizzard was basically a 1.5 day event around here.
 
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