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Pattern Mega March 2023

So, I am trying to figure out if this is the least snowiest winter in Roanoke. As you can see below, somehow, we had a trace each month Nov.-Feb. but I never even sniffed white ground although I did have one day with a slight glaze in trees in Dec. 19-20 was the worst year in the last 23 and this year would be worse with 0 measurable events so far. Ill also point out 06-09 was a bad 3 years. And last but not least for the first graphic look at the 7.3 for April 71. The Ts for June must be hail?
1677633076260.png
Going back a little farther, 90-91 was another crapper at 1.2 total and 2.3 75-76. 56-57 at was another bad year at 3.7. our airport data only goes back to 47, but there is some interesting area data from before then. 1918-1919 and 1919-1920 look like this year so far with nothing measurable. Then 1926-1930 look like they only had 3" total for the 4 winters and all of that was in the first year. In the earlier data I am assuming M=Missing but is missing because it was 0.

1677634240776.png

Bottom line, as bad as this feels now, it sure looks like it has happened before, and it also looks like sometimes it happens in blocks. Hopping this is the last year of this block of bad winters.

PS If I was more of a weenie and had more time I would try to figure out if those bad years were cold and dry or warm. maybe ENSO data too. But too little time.

 
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ATLwxfan said:
Wow. They must be seeing something we are
missing in terms of indices? The GFS op clearly on to something.


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Week 1-2.5 of March will be warm. That last 7-10 day or so will be cool to cold depending on your location. Overall March will be above avg and April will come and tell the cold to get lost for good.
 
ATLwxfan said:
But we’ve known it was starting out warm for a long while.


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Yeah, but like I said, that map is for the entire month, the WPC is still going with below average likely for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the month for at least the northern parts of the SE…. Even if that pans out which I think it will, the months as a whole could still be above average in the areas it’s showing.
 
@Nomanslandva -

M means no data was recorded
T in summer is for hail

20-21 thru 22-23, 73-74 thru 75-76, and 54-55 thru 56-57 were all 3-year La Niña / Cool ENSO periods within multi-year -PDO regimes which tend to be detrimental to the Mid Atlantic for snowfall compared to normal (even moreso than in the southeast)
 
NoSnowATL said:
A few days later….
Click to expand...
This is showing temperatures for the whole month of March while the first graphic shows from march 11-24th .. the first week of March is going to be very much above average so that fact that we even get back to average for the entire month shows how impressive our cold pattern will be. Cheers
 
griteater said:
@Nomanslandva -

M means no data was recorded
T in summer is for hail

20-21 thru 22-23, 73-74 thru 75-76, and 54-55 thru 56-57 were all 3-year La Niña / Cool ENSO periods within multi-year -PDO regimes which tend to be detrimental to the Mid Atlantic for snowfall compared to normal (even moreso than in the southeast)
Click to expand...
Thank you!
 
ATLwxfan said:
Oddly we’re still pretty ridgy at times


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GFS Suite = meh
GFS Suite / Euro Suite Blend = meh
Euro Suite gives us a shot down the line

Need to see the GFS Suite move boldly to the Euro Suite solution. Kind of doubting that will happen, but we’ll see

One other side observation - I haven’t studied this in detail, but it seems like whenever we get a nice retrograding Greenland block, it tends to be a fairly quick hitter when the full Arctic isn’t blocked up. The more prolonged blocking episodes tend to be when both the AO and NAO domains are blocked up nicely
 
Nomanslandva said:
So, I am trying to figure out if this is the least snowiest winter in Roanoke. As you can see below, somehow, we had a trace each month Nov.-Feb. but I never even sniffed white ground although I did have one day with a slight glaze in trees in Dec. 19-20 was the worst year in the last 23 and this year would be worse with 0 measurable events so far. Ill also point out 06-09 was a bad 3 years. And last but not least for the first graphic look at the 7.3 for April 71. The Ts for June must be hail?
View attachment 133773
Going back a little farther, 90-91 was another crapper at 1.2 total and 2.3 75-76. 56-57 at was another bad year at 3.7. our airport data only goes back to 47, but there is some interesting area data from before then. 1918-1919 and 1919-1920 look like this year so far with nothing measurable. Then 1926-1930 look like they only had 3" total for the 4 winters and all of that was in the first year. In the earlier data I am assuming M=Missing but is missing because it was 0.

View attachment 133774

Bottom line, as bad as this feels now, it sure looks like it has happened before, and it also looks like sometimes it happens in blocks. Hopping this is the last year of this block of bad winters.

PS If I was more of a weenie and had more time I would try to figure out if those bad years were cold and dry or warm. maybe ENSO data too. But too little time.

Click to expand...
Love that you put some time into this, I’ve been wanting to do the same but it’s just too depressing.
 
ATLwxfan said:
But we’ve known it was starting out warm for a long while.


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The prior graphic with colder than average was for the later part of March, not the whole month. It’s apples to oranges.
 
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