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Pattern Mega March 2023

rburrel2 said:
GFS looks similar to the icon with the day 7 threat potential. Ukmet looks like it's setting up similar at hr 144. Maybe an outside chance materializing.
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Yeah seeing suppressed and within 7 days gives me false hope....... again lol
 
KyloG said:
Raleigh has had roughly 3" of snow total the past 4 winters. This is the worst 4 yr stretch since 2005-2008...the worst 5 yr stretch has been roughly 9.5" total. So to even meet that futitlity we would need 6-7" next winter...that seems insurmountable.
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What was rdus total the previous 4?
 
KyloG said:
Raleigh has had roughly 3" of snow total the past 4 winters. This is the worst 4 yr stretch since 2005-2008...the worst 5 yr stretch has been roughly 9.5" total. So to even meet that futitlity we would need 6-7" next winter...that seems insurmountable.
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I wonder what the total was for the 5 year stretch from 2000-2004 in Raleigh. That seemed to be an active period.
 
Our best chance to get a “storm” would probably be behind the initial storm that looks to be growing support for a NE coastal as seen on most models.. then that helps back up the flow and allows the next system to have a more suppressed Storm track .. question would be how much does the first system amplify.. stronger gives us a deeper cold injection .. and of course the track of the second storm is key as well. Again, I’m certainly not expecting winter weather but this will keep us in a cold pattern as CPC has highlighted for a while now
 
KyloG said:
Raleigh has had roughly 3" of snow total the past 4 winters. This is the worst 4 yr stretch since 2005-2008...the worst 5 yr stretch has been roughly 9.5" total. So to even meet that futitlity we would need 6-7" next winter...that seems insurmountable.
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I think RDU has 4-5” or so last year and a couple inches in the February 2020 slushstorm. I think we had 0.5-1” in the 2020-2021 disastrous winter, too. I suspect the 1990s probably had a worse stretch.
 
superjames1992 said:
I think RDU has 4-5” or so last year and a couple inches in the February 2020 slushstorm. I think we had 0.5-1” in the 2020-2021 disastrous winter, too. I suspect the 1990s probably had a worse stretch.
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1990-92 did not feature much winter precip outside of the mountains. 1 small snowstorm along I-20 in 1992 and an icestorm in some of the area just after Christmas 1992. 1996-97 and 1997-98 were not too good either for most of us.
 
EPS snow depth showing a little noise for the weekend for NE NC, anybody ahem @KyloG lol got maps. I'm desperate, is it one member or a few small members or nothing at all?
 
KyloG said:
Remember the fantasy epic cold/snow pattern the EPS was predicting....what a shocker to see it evaporate. ?‍♂️

Today's EPS run v/s 3 days ago. Big ole trough in the west now.

View attachment 134041
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An epic snow pattern was never being shown. A colder pattern was being shown and a colder pattern is still being shown
 
It really is amazing how we can get weeks and weeks of sustained west coast trough and then when things finally shift we plow right through the ridge pumping stage before one even has a chance to build.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
An epic snow pattern was never being shown. A colder pattern was being shown and a colder pattern is still being shown
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Pattern that was being modeled that had peoples interest has fallen apart. You can spin it by saying muted BN is still “colder” but that reaching.
 
1679140800-vLKYnpNVFc4.png

1679162400-ueVNAjcrdoc.png

Likely upper 40's and low 50's. Typical average January type day so it will still feel like winter going through the extended. Nobody should've ever expected snow in mid March and I don't think anyone was. Delaying heat and humidity through the extended are wins at this point in the year.
 
KyloG said:
Remember the fantasy epic cold/snow pattern the EPS was predicting....what a shocker to see it evaporate. ?‍♂️

Today's EPS run v/s 3 days ago. Big ole trough in the west now.

View attachment 134041
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I don't know what the big lovefest is with the EPS. I mean, you can roll out global model scores if you want, but in terms of being what I would call a good and reliable model/suite, it's far from it. Anecdotally, it seems to shift around way more than it used to.
 
KyloG said:
Pattern that was being modeled that had peoples interest has fallen apart. You can spin it by saying muted BN is still “colder” but that reaching.
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I suppose. Before it was a mainly cold and dry pattern which would’ve been hard to get snow regardless but very below normal.. now it’s just below normal and some periods of precip but we would need either more cold air or weird phasing/ amplifications to be able to get some snow in the upper SE regions which fight now isn’t being modeled. But we are going to say goodbye to the 70-80s and see frost and freeze potentials coming back into the picture for a bit.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know what the big lovefest is with the EPS. I mean, you can roll out global model scores if you want, but in terms of being what I would call a good and reliable model/suite, it's far from it. Anecdotally, it seems to shift around way more than it used to.
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Compared to its counterparts? It's the best one we have available.
 
iGRXY said:
Compared to its counterparts? It's the best one we have available.
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If you're comparing rabbit poop to horse poop, I guess I would go with rabbit poop. But at the end of the day, they're both poop. But calling it a good model is just plain bull poop.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know what the big lovefest is with the EPS. I mean, you can roll out global model scores if you want, but in terms of being what I would call a good and reliable model/suite, it's far from it. Anecdotally, it seems to shift around way more than it used to.
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This pretty bad…they were all bad though, I think.

5EC8E7DA-88E0-4925-86F1-96DE0EBFA79F.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
If you're comparing rabbit poop to horse poop, I guess I would go with rabbit poop. But at the end of the day, they're both poop. But calling it a good model is just plain bull poop.
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Disagree 100%. Using the mean temps and smoothed anomalies past D5 as the data point of truth is the poop. It's obvious the eps is going to bust to a degree here but when 70% of the members are going to fall within 5 degrees of where we probably verify it looks good to me
 
Nice. Tons of +AAM set to go poleward and too much +EAMT. How to get the pacific jet in California. Not ideal for extended cold at all. Even with shortened wavelengths. Favors a fast and progressive pattern and shuts off any legit cold source. Wouldn’t shock me if we trend warm to end the month with a stronger than modeled extended pacific jet. It being in Cali already by day 8-9, is not ideal for cold. AD77FB6A-1A06-456F-A95F-3A6BC243139D.gif00146A2B-A0F8-45A7-8E1E-84F3021A9FDD.gifC9797600-9349-4D26-B082-12E59020B898.png8FB5200A-DBAF-416B-87E2-134FC653DA1D.png13B16113-3EF1-43FF-ACB0-1957F0D9E25A.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nice. Tons of +AAM set to go poleward and too much +EAMT. How to get the pacific jet in California. Not ideal for extended cold at all. Even with shortened wavelengths. Favors a fast and progressive pattern and shuts off any legit cold source. Wouldn’t shock me if we trend warm to end the month with a stronger than modeled extended pacific jet. It being in Cali already by day 8-9, is not ideal for cold. View attachment 134057View attachment 134058View attachment 134056View attachment 134055View attachment 134054
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Yep, not that cold pattern I’ve seen posted the past 6 weeks.
 
iGRXY said:
1679140800-vLKYnpNVFc4.png

1679162400-ueVNAjcrdoc.png

Likely upper 40's and low 50's. Typical average January type day so it will still feel like winter going through the extended. Nobody should've ever expected snow in mid March and I don't think anyone was. Delaying heat and humidity through the extended are wins at this point in the year.
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With March snowstorms you’re likely going to sneak a snowstorm into a string of weather like this (most likely at the beginning or end of it). I’ve seen late March light accumulating snowfall a day after temperatures were in the 70s. You’re not going to get extended cold this time of year, it’s not really possible with how strong the sun is in mid-March, but that doesn’t mean we can’t sneak a nighttime snowstorm in, even if it’s in the upper 50s with a river of melting 24 hours later.

I remember with the February 25, 2015 snowstorm it was in the mid-50s during the day and sunny and then it was pouring snow by late evening with temperatures around freezing. Give us cold mid levels and good rates and good things can happen. More of an uphill battle than in January, of course.

As a disclaimer, I think the chances that we make anything of this pattern are fairly small (and let’s be real, we can blow a good pattern and come up empty even in January sometimes), but people also shouldn’t write it off as impossible.
 
SD said:
Disagree 100%. Using the mean temps and smoothed anomalies past D5 as the data point of truth is the poop. It's obvious the eps is going to bust to a degree here but when 70% of the members are going to fall within 5 degrees of where we probably verify it looks good to me
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Ok
 
JHS said:
1990-92 did not feature much winter precip outside of the mountains. 1 small snowstorm along I-20 in 1992 and an icestorm in some of the area just after Christmas 1992. 1996-97 and 1997-98 were not too good either for most of us.
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The 90s were the worst decade for snow here. But guess what? This decade is worse so far. By mid March 93 we had 14.9 inches for the decade. This decade 9.2 inches. Could the 20s become the least snowiest decade? Most likely with how it's started out and the fact it seems way harder to get cold and snow anymore.
 
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