Shaggy
Member
It'll happen. I'll be at Disney that week and was hoping for 70s and 80s but will have 50s and 60s
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Mega March 2023
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
This is just a slap in the face at this point. You get this look even just 2-3 weeks ago and we likely would be talking about how 2023 winter wasn't too bad of a winter after all.
It’s gonna be hilarious when we get the biggest one day snow event since December 2018 this March.
ATLwxfan
Member
This is just a slap in the face at this point. You get this look even just 2-3 weeks ago and we likely would be talking about how 2023 winter wasn't too bad of a winter after all.
Pretty solidly BN. The GFS op is still on the struggle bus. It is just resistant to fully suppressing the SER for some reason. Seems to be slowly trending in the direction of the Euro.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
Never underestimate the strength of a SER and how long it could hold on. I'd be hard pressed to bet against it to be honest with you.
I could quote a million of my posts and say I told you so but there’s no need .. it’s been written on the wall for weeks and high amp phase 8 plus blocking is going to get cold to shift to the east week 2 of march through probably the entirety of March will be below average a good amount. Will we see snow? Who knows. It’s harder to get snow in March but it truly is a great pattern for at the very least cold. Cold is for sure. Will have to wait to see if anything wintry shows up in modeling. Cheers 
ATLwxfan
Member
Normally I’m with you but the PNA really projected to go neutral.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Honestly with the amount of blocking up too it’s more than likely the SER gets absolute muted .. same thing happened in December and it’ll probably happen here too as it’s what all model ensembles are now predicting
Shaggy
Member
All model ensembles had me getting a big snow around Xmas too in the long range.
Seasonal trends have been for a stronger SER. It may very well get muted but I'll only believe it when I see it
Actually back in December, the SER trended weaker the closer you got because of the strong blocking up top. That’s why the potential right after Christmas didn’t work out because everything ended up getting too suppressed. History has shown me that whenever we’re getting stronger periods of high latitude blocking, the Euro suite typically handles the overall pattern really well.
I'm just not sure that look is correct. It's never cold Coast to Coast 99% of the time.
Shaggy
Member
Would be quite the feat for December let alone March. Don't get me wrong I see us transitioning to a cooler pattern but call me skeptical on a ridge crushing pattern change. I may be wrong hopefully I am wrong but the models have stunk so bad this season.
NoSnowATL
Member
300hrs away. Lets go...
ATLwxfan
Member
As much as we would like to think that the ridge is this autonomous phenomenon, it’s not. It’s just that we have lived in a Nina for four years.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tbh mid-March isn’t too late for us to be talking about how the 2023 winter wasn’t too bad of a winter, either. It’s harder and more on the edge, for sure, but let’s not write it off. There have been huge storms in mid- to late-March.
This is just a slap in the face at this point. You get this look even just 2-3 weeks ago and we likely would be talking about how 2023 winter wasn't too bad of a winter after all.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
It's been 30 years since many of us have seen a huge storm in Mid to Late March, so I guess we are due.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah I remember the one in 1983 that was over 6" here in late March....
The majority of the SE will go without even a trace of snow, I don't remember the last time Raleigh hasn't even seen a trace....maybe the 90's. Doesn't breed optimism for next winter. Soon just getting below freezing will be a win for us.
iGRXY
Member
This is the thing, March snow happens but most large storms have been within the first few days of March typically. We are getting about a good of an H5 pattern as you want to deliver really cold and well below average temps for a large junk of the month as it looks right now. But even with a large displacement of cold air in the eastern US and 15-20 degree below average temps, it's still going to be in the upper 30's and lower 40's more than likely outside of the mountains. So while yes we keep winter around, it's still not cold enough to snow in unless you get closer to record breaking type cold which is extremely tough to rely on.
Broken024
Member
Union county is the NC jackpot outside of the mountains. Winning!