Pattern Mega March 2023

[NickyBGuarantee]

I really have never thought early to mid March is THAT bad for us to be able to get snow in the upper SE regions. Given a solid pattern there is still plenty of cold air we can tap into and wave lengths aren’t too funky. When was the last high amp phase 8 in March? I would like to see some of those historical maps

 

[ATLwxfan]

The Euro may even be underestimating how cold we could get as a result of the SSWE. Could still get interesting.

In the meantime we have two legit shots to hit 80°in ATL tomorrow and Wednesday and with lower dew points!!!


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[griteater]

The eps is an icebox from 240hrs until the end of the run. Weenie stuff. It’s probably too late but it’ll still be before March 15th so worth watching.

I really have never thought early to mid March is THAT bad for us to be able to get snow in the upper SE regions. Given a solid pattern there is still plenty of cold air we can tap into and wave lengths aren’t too funky. When was the last high amp phase 8 in March? I would like to see some of those historical maps

Really I think it just comes down to getting that elusive favorable pattern as much as anything, which is what we struggle to get regardless of month.

Put together these charts for CLT back in 2017. Climo snowfall in Dec and March mimics each other. Early Dec = Late Mar. Late Dec = Early Mar

 

[griteater]

From NOAA's Weekly MJO Update

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Really I think it just comes down to getting that elusive favorable pattern as much as anything, which is what we struggle to get regardless of month.

Put together these charts for CLT back in 2017. Climo snowfall in Dec and March mimics each other. Early Dec = Late Mar. Late Dec = Early Mar

What this tells me is that December and March are basically the same in terms of snow climo for Charlotte. Yet i've heard over and over how March is so much better for snow than December.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

What type of tree is that? I don’t have the first leaf on anything up here. Maples and tulip magnolia have bloomed but that’s it.

I'm not totally sure. It's a tree at work. I'm not very good with my plants species.

 

[KyloG]

March 1960 repeat getting a late start.

Need a lot of work to get anywhere close to the temp anomalies of March 1960.

 

[rburrel2]

The problem with March is everything can go right and you get an excellent 30-31 degree snowstorm, but it happens at the wrong time of day and nothing sticks.

 

[rburrel2]

What this tells me is that December and March are basically the same in terms of snow climo for Charlotte. Yet i've heard over and over how March is so much better for snow than December.

If you just look at the last 15-20 years December has been way better than March.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

The problem with March is everything can go right and you get an excellent 30-31 degree snowstorm, but it happens at the wrong time of day and nothing sticks.

Yeah its very difficult to get much accumulation during the middle of the day in March, unless you are getting some insane rates.

 

[Tarheel1]

Are we buying

View attachment 133712

Yea! Awwwww in!

 

[Tarheel1]

Euro Control has entered the chat room

Looks like coldest air on the planet is over the East and SE! Better late than never!

 

[iGRXY]

Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us

To me if I’m in the Northeast or MA my ears would be perked up to get something pretty decent as we close the season. CAD areas of NC/SC/NEGA can score but you’re looking at grasping straws to get even 30-32 BL temps even with this look because it’s mid March. I mean we will be below average and it certainly will still feel like winter for most of March but it’s still not cold enough IMO for us to score a legit winter storm at this point

 

[gawxnative]

Well noticed my first Fire Ant Mound of the season... earliest I have seen in the area , as usual is near to Easter /Tax Day...

 

[Itryatgolf]

Strongly negative epo/wpo and some semblance of a -nao and ao. If we can't score in that setup, even though it's beginning to mid march, we need to focus on other things lol.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Looks like coldest air on the planet is over the East and SE! Better late than never!

I mean these are anomalies not absolute temps.

But yeah it won’t be what it is right now that’s for sure. The bathtub will slosh.


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[Itryatgolf]

I mean these are anomalies not absolute temps.

But yeah it won’t be what it is right now that’s for sure. The bathtub will slosh.


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[Itryatgolf]

That is the coldest epo eps map I've seen in a long time. In all seriousness, if we can't score with this, we will never score lol. ?‍

 

[ATLwxfan]

That is the coldest epo eps map I've seen in a long time. In all seriousness, if we can't score with this, we will never score lol.

There’s a difference between being cold and scoring. I agree though the constellation of EPO/NAO/PNA/MJO checks the boxes. I would lose hope if we didn’t score in climo winter in this scenario but not Mid March.


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[Chazwin]

There’s a difference between being cold and scoring. I agree though the constellation of EPO/NAO/PNA/MJO checks the boxes. I would lose hope if we didn’t score in climo winter in this scenario but not Mid March.


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Yeah, so much has to go right for you to score outside the mountains the deeper we go into March. While I’m very confident we’ll have at least a 10-14 stretch of below average, possibly well below average, temperatures, I just simply have no confidence of anyone scoring a late season snow outside of the mountains, adjacent foothills, and areas north of I-40 up into VA.