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Pattern Mega March 2023

ATLwxfan said:
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GFS this morning.


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Lol yeah it’s starting to get a handle on things like the euro and CMC but it’s still a bit lost in the medium.. it’s catching up though I’m sure today the models will get on a better page hopefully for around the 10th
 
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Now this is interesting. If we can spike the ridge out west and get some digging here we could score as there is no SER to speak and very cold air in place already.
 
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You get the cold with no moisture, typical stuff
 
LukeBarrette said:
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You get the cold with no moisture, typical stuff
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GFS shows exactly why expecting anything besides well below average temps is fools gold more than likely. We had an East coast trough already in place with a spiked western ridge and the S/W coming out of the Northwest still didn't dig enough and we pushed WAA out ahead of the storm just to get a cold rain with big cold air sliding in behind it. So rinse and repeat.
 
No one should be expecting snow out of any winter pattern .. especially in the SE in march .. but you can guarantee it will feel like winter in this cold pattern setting up for march! I’m a lover for cold at heart .. snow would just be a bonus but I’m not expecting it.
 
The AO drop is impressive since it started near +3 in late February and is now showing it going to the -2 range before mid month. That is also a lower number than yesterday when it was showing it near -1.5. The question of course is will it mean just a cold period or one with a storm in the picture. March is usually a juiced up month on precip compared to December so we will see.
 
CaryWx said:
meh. Those are Sat morning lows. Barely below freezing for mby. For mid-March cold? Yes. For January? Not so much
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This is Sunday morning lows, better? Lol Of course this is 10 days out, but BUT, if the Euro was correct with DPs in low teens, clear skies and light winds (although it looks like they may be up around 5-10 mph), globals don't generally handle radiational cooling that well..... you could be talking low 20s, easily.

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metwannabe said:
This is Sunday morning lows, better? Lol Of course this is 10 days out, but BUT, if the Euro was correct with DPs in low teens, clear skies and light winds (although it looks like they may be up around 5-10 mph), globals don't generally handle radiational cooling that well..... you could be talking low 20s, easily.

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Yep. We know globals often overshoot lows in radiational cooling situations minus the cmc with the euro being notoriously high. There's a good amount of support for the cold euro within the eps plumes but you still have 25% or so that are 60+ so it's not a slam dunk. What sucks is if we drive a deep trough into the east you can kiss and snow chance goodbye until the pattern relaxes but it looks like this might fairly quickly moderate on the back. The gfs run from a few days ago and the 12z euro run from a few days ago had it right on how to get snow here in March and this op Euro run today is very reminiscent of the Christmas cold shot where we get left with not much to show but cold and dead plants
 
SD said:
Yep. We know globals often overshoot lows in radiational cooling situations minus the cmc with the euro being notoriously high. There's a good amount of support for the cold euro within the eps plumes but you still have 25% or so that are 60+ so it's not a slam dunk. What sucks is if we drive a deep trough into the east you can kiss and snow chance goodbye until the pattern relaxes but it looks like this might fairly quickly moderate on the back. The gfs run from a few days ago and the 12z euro run from a few days ago had it right on how to get snow here in March and this op Euro run today is very reminiscent of the Christmas cold shot where we get left with not much to show but cold and dead plants
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No doubt, no snow with this and just worse case scenario imho.... extended warmup before a late season arctic blast (if it materializes, as you say not a slam dunk for sure) and no freaking wintry precip to show for it. Are the plumes available free somewhere and I just don't know how to find them? lol

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metwannabe said:
No doubt, no snow with this and just worse case scenario imho.... extended warmup before a late season arctic blast (if it materializes, as you say not a slam dunk for sure) and no freaking wintry precip to show for it. Are the plumes available free somewhere and I just don't know how to find them? lol

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weather.us

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Chalybeate Springs

Chalybeate Springs, Harnett County, North Carolina, United States - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct comparison for several parameters.
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Here is a link to mine you can navigate around and change the location to your house
 
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