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Pattern Mega March 2023

ATLwxfan said:
GFS op shows a lot of our cooling will be CAD driven and doesn’t quite suppress the ridge as much as you might want. We get almost a zonal look. Overnight lows stay above freezing which bodes well for the early blooms.


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Plants sure do like to roll the dice.


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SnowNiner said:
I'd need some barney purple departures over the Carolinas to make me think there's a chance for a legit threat. And being around so long, I know how this goes.
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Euro Control has entered the chat room

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Long range definitely supports overrunning depending on how much better we trend out west. Get a better pacific and stop dumping out west so much and we could potentially get driven into the icebox one more time and that doesn't typically trend well for snow as we get cold and dry most of the time. If we keep the subtropical ridge nearby where you get squished SER from the blocking overtop in the Atlantic, then yeah we can trend to some type of overrunning/CAD. Especially as we hold -NAO and the 50/50, but again you're getting into mid March with moderating air masses and a Pacific jet that is on the edge between a lot of cold and more zonal/west dumping.
 
iGRXY said:
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It sucks that we couldn't get this in January. We certainly can score especially in the CAD areas with this look but it's mid March and it's desperation time if you want frozen.
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Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
 
ForsythSnow said:
My real question is that if it's showing this, are there huge storms skewing the mean or are we seeing most of them showing slight/moderate events? Really depends to know if we are headed toward some kind of overrunning setup or just 360 hour nonsense.
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About 40% if the members have something here. There's not a big one that is really skewing
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
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That looks really nice, and I'd be excited if that look started showing up 30 days ago. With that said I bet the northeast is going to have a nice event or two. I'm going to keep an eye on it because I think the mountains could certainly get a nice hit. I'll run up last minute if I need to get snow this year.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
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March 1960 repeat getting a late start.
 
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