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Pattern Mega March 2023

Chazwin said:
Well these are definitely great weenie runs of the GFS overnight and this morning, but let’s remember this was a model that 2 days ago kept showing a strong SER despite high amp phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO combination.
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Lol yep. That said, this is mid range sampling and it just got slapped in the face by a high amp phase 8.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro being amped up is a big red flag imho. That has been the trend the last month
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I would honestly thing that sets us up even better for events down the road past 240… solid consensus from models of some sort of bigger developing storm whether it’s a late bloomer or super amped inland .. I would say a storm signal is there but we’re still a long ways out to figuring out where the ingredients try and set up
 
The models weren't right in the dead of winter, have my doubts they'll be right in middle of March lol. With that said, if we're going to kill off all vegetation that has popped up early let's at least dump some snow on top of it.... please.
 
metwannabe said:
The models weren't right in the dead of winter, have my doubts they'll be right in middle of March lol. With that said, if we're going to kill off all vegetation that has popped up early let's at least dump some snow on top of it.... please.
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This. If it's not going to snow I'd rather avoid the cold
 
Chazwin said:
Well these are definitely great weenie runs of the GFS overnight and this morning, but let’s remember this was a model that 2 days ago kept showing a strong SER despite high amp phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO combination.
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Kudos to you and others (BullCity / NickyB) who thought the GFS/GEFS were out of whack with the pattern. Yes, the Euro is historically best with retrograding Greenland block patterns, but we sometimes see the GFS be stubborn and correct with some of its ideas, especially with the Pac side and with this being La Nina.

Last night's GEFS run has, broadly speaking, my favorite type of pattern. Retrograding Greenland block, solid 50/50 low complex underneath that is getting fed and reinforced, and last but not least, the Pacific side isn't too steeply ridged...so, waves are moving more west to east into the eastern trough instead of it being a big Arctic blast. Do I think it is correct? No, probably not. The Euro is cold, but again, it has that big bang look with the one big storm which has warm risks out front

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NoSnowATL said:
Thanks Brick
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Being cold for the sake of being cold this year isn't a great venture. We are probably 30-45 days ahead on green up. Yay we are going to smoke everything dead and there's evidence that shows killing off initial green up = less dense leaf canopy less volume in turf grass & drought. Thrilling. At least if we are going to get cold and negatively impact ag might as well cash some snow checks
 
SD said:
Being cold for the sake of being cold this year isn't a great venture. We are probably 30-45 days ahead on green up. Yay we are going to smoke everything dead and there's evidence that shows killing off initial green up = less dense leaf canopy less volume in turf grass & drought. Thrilling. At least if we are going to get cold and negatively impact ag might as well cash some snow checks
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Honestly, I think some of this bell ringing might be a bit overdone wrt spring vegetation. Time will tell.
 
BullCityWx said:
If this was to come to pass next weekend, the ACC tournament will be in Greensboro simultaneously. I wonder when the last local ACC tournament happened where it also snowed. The only one I can ever remember is 1993 in Charlotte at the tyvola coliseum.
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I remember the power going out for a time that afternoon at the Coliseum and then looking out the windows of the concourse to see whiteout conditions.
 
SD said:
Being cold for the sake of being cold this year isn't a great venture. We are probably 30-45 days ahead on green up. Yay we are going to smoke everything dead and there's evidence that shows killing off initial green up = less dense leaf canopy less volume in turf grass & drought. Thrilling. At least if we are going to get cold and negatively impact ag might as well cash some snow checks
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Hopefully this is early enough to allow some recovery. 2007 happened so late when a lot of leaves were nearly full sized.
 
CaryWx said:
Honestly, I think some of this bell ringing might be a bit overdone wrt spring vegetation. Time will tell.
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Yeah there's a lot that goes into it and luckily we aren't at full leaf out but the next 7 days aren't exactly going to slow that process down. Hopefully we can avoid sub 28 readings and avoid any severe damage
 
rburrel2 said:
A night or two below freezing for a short time? Are you wishcasting? Or have you moved to Orlando or something?
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No. The GFS through its run gets ATL down to 31 and a few nights in the low 30’s (suburbs colder of course). Coldest in Orlando is low 40’s right now.


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ATLwxfan said:
No. The GFS through its run gets ATL down to 31 and a few nights in the low 30’s (suburbs colder of course). Coldest in Orlando is low 40’s right now.


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Are you in Alpharetta or downtown Atlanta?
 
ATLwxfan said:
No. The GFS through its run gets ATL down to 31 and a few nights in the low 30’s (suburbs colder of course). Coldest in Orlando is low 40’s right now.


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You should see the Euro then. Highs at or around freezing at the end of its run is a pretty bold statement as to how cold we might be looking at. Even knock it up 5 degrees and the nighttime is still mid 20s widespread.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm all for a nice insulating blanket of snow. Win, win.
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It's funny how the answer to protecting the early vegetation is actually to insulate it with a good snow pack. Nature may have been cruel to us during peak winter months but it can make up for it by providing a nice coat of snow lol.
 
ATLwxfan said:
No. The GFS through its run gets ATL down to 31 and a few nights in the low 30’s (suburbs colder of course). Coldest in Orlando is low 40’s right now.


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The latest EPS has Atlanta and north GA in the low 30's and highs near 50. I think all trees and most shrubs and flowers will survive those temps just fine. That's not out of the realm of normal, even for April, which is when the trees usually leaf out.
 
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