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Pattern Mega March 2023
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,899
- Reaction score
- 12,300
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Well now...
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,899
- Reaction score
- 12,300
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Whoa!
iGRXY
Member
Well I think we got our timeframe if we are going to score.
Here comes the sun
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
Close to a 6 inch mean at my house is pretty ridiculous
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I know the CMC usually has a cold bias but check it out!
Come to daddy!
Come to daddy!
Euro takes a big step back from the cold. Maybe delayed. We'll see.
Got a biblical 50/50, huge block and still nothing but cutters. Not sure what the excitement would be about this pattern...maybe we can get a couple of cooler days after the cutter swings through. That would be a win.
Otherwise...yawn....
Otherwise...yawn....
Avalanche
Member
Tarheel1 wins again!!
Yeah the models routinely overdo long range cold. Maybe it's just been so long that we've seen it show up that we just forgot. If we even have a night or two at or just below freezing, I'd be somewhat surprised.
ATLwxfan
Member
The Euro going to trend towards the GFS of two days ago. This place will melt down.
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Not unusual to see a severe weather set up before a major pattern change like the one we’re dealing with. I wouldn’t say it’s models “delaying cold” it’s still coming I am willing to bet we will have many nights below freezing.. biblical cold into the middle teens? Probably not but the damage will be done with this pattern change.
rburrel2
Member
The troll posts are getting old. Every ensemble mean has well below average temps for over a week straight. It’s looking like the coldest and most conducive pattern stretch we’ve had since Christmas. If you want to crap on it, take it to banter.
You said it...troll posts are getting old. That goes both ways.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
My question is why do the models always seem to overdo long range cold ?
Avalanche
Member
I think the cold everyone is talking about is more Mid Atlantic New England regions. Doubt the southeast is in the game.
Nope this is a cold for everyone game.
tazaroo
Member
Looks like it was just doing the usual delayed a day or 2. Look at your high at the end Monday.
No doubt we will see home highs in the low 50's and lows tickling 30F for a night or two, maybe. That would be -10F departures. So yeah, all on board for that and it will be nice to have some cool nights. But sunny and highs in the low 50's still feel rather good, shorts and light jacket weather.
Those are mean highs 10 days out in the upper 40s with mean highs average to below average for the heart of winter. That will be extremely cold weather for march in the south. If you’re from buffaloe I could see it being light jacket weather.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
With a high March sun angle, 50s would feel a lot warmer than it does in January.
ATLwxfan
Member
I think this fits the bill. Folks wanted BN temps and we can universally agree the models give us BN temps like you’ve shown. The Canadian is unrealistic in my opinion as others have stated.
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You've got some pretty dramatic r2r changes in the pacific, arctic, and NW can that extended out are making chaotic large changes across the SE with timing and magnitude of cold. The end result hasn't changed a ton
I got a dusting ❄
If there was still ever a doubt. Professionals say you are going to be hard pressed to find warmth in March.
There's a banter thread, please use it for banter.... also I'd ask you all to stop with the warm/cold back and forth crap. It's making this place miserable to read to be honest.
ATLwxfan
Member
I’d like to think we all agree it’s going to be BN though the verdict might be out on how much and if the off chance for wintery precip. It’s as good of a pattern we’ve seen for something wintery. Let’s see what the 18z GFS spits out. I would not be shocked to see the goods.
Mid 40’s tonight is going to feel frigid after this stretch.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Well…the 18z GFS is…different. Low temps next weekend up about 20° with the core of the cold out west. It’s delayed but not denied…vodka cold coming down the pipe.
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Anybody talking about the fact that it's in the upper 40s in Northern Iredell and in the low 70s in Southern Iredell County?? Is that CAD? It's astonishing the difference in just a very short drive today
Nomanslandva
Member
42 and cold rain here today. Super fun day. On next weekends system. It is unreal how we get the looks we had over night for a few runs with multi model support just to have them all cut this year. There is still a glimmer of hope in the EPS, but I would like to see things trend a little better.
Happy hour GFS did throw a nice looking bone late in the run. Don't look, it will hurt your eyes.
Happy hour GFS did throw a nice looking bone late in the run. Don't look, it will hurt your eyes.
Again this why you can’t ever take any operational models seriously more than a week out and probably more than 4 days on the GFS. We’ve seen the GFS struggle for months since its upgrade… even to the point that the WPC has stopped using it.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Y
ep, because it will be 100 miles SE of this by then! It’s how it be sometimes!
That didn’t take long at all 
SWVAwxfan
Member
Was 40 here and rain at 4pm. Meanwhile, Wilmington NC was sunny and 81.
SWVAwxfan
Member
GFS is garbage.