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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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What's the wind probability for birmi than area?? With that euro

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Thats some incredible weakening, from 155 to 130 in 3 hours. Can we expect another 25 mph drop from 8am to 11am?
 
This may throw somewhat of a wrench in the intensity forecast, but I fully expect it to restrengthen as the eye moves farther off the coast of Cuba. But how much will it restrengthen? At any rate, it is still a category 4 and nothing to mess with.

Of course, according to Spann, the hurricane is still 155 mph right now and behaving just as expected!
 
champal3003 said:
This will put Irma at least top 3, pretty historic storm.
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Storm5 said:
Looking a bit ragged this morning Cuba doing a number

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Yeah, I know 130 is still strong, but Cuba did put a dent in Irma! It'll be a watch and see , if she can regain strength to a cat 4 or 5, sometimes they just don't recover as expected or modeled
 
South AL Wx said:
This may throw somewhat of a wrench in the intensity forecast, but I fully expect it to restrengthen as the eye moves farther off the coast of Cuba. But how much will it restrengthen? At any rate, it is still a category 4 and nothing to mess with.

Of course, according to Spann, the hurricane is still 155 mph right now and behaving just as expected!
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Spann also says AL is on the good side. Despite the track going right through AL and leaving parts of AL on the right side.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, I know 130 is still strong, but Cuba did put a dent in Irma! It'll be a watch and see , if she can regain strength to a cat 4 or 5, sometimes they just don't recover as expected or modeled
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Harvey landfalled around the strength of Irma now. Just some perspective


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Im not sure how much longer she will continue this rate of weakening but assuming she continues to decrease by 25 mph every 3 hours that would leave her at 80 mph by 2pm.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Spann also says AL is on the good side. Despite the track going right through AL and leaving parts of AL on the right side.
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Bad thing is, this storm is bad all around with how big she is. I know the right side is normally the worst but dang she a powerhouse all around.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Im not sure how much longer she will continue this rate of weakening but assuming she continues to decrease by 25 mph every 3 hours that would leave her at 80 mph by 2pm.
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Yeah, it's a dud, your forecast for Monday and Tuesday partly cloudy , winds 10-15 mph! :(
 
It surprises me that they didnt take into account land interaction when forecasting intensity. I was watching last night and puzzled as to how she would stay so strong despite being over or near land for so long.
 
To be honest tho, short term movement on I think all models had her making more of a “landfall” and actually getting into a Cuba a little ways. I don’t see that happening right now. More of “skirting” Cuba at the moment.
 
I was reading the comments from another forum and someone said large storms often have a harder time recovering. So i think it would be highly unlikely that Irma would hit the US as anything stronger than a Cat 3.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was reading the comments from another forum and someone said large storms often have a harder time recovering. So i think it would be highly unlikely that Irma would hit the US as anything stronger than a Cat 3.
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Even thats bad LOL!! I know one, if she keeps moving west through cuba, then she could ride the guld all the way. Give her time to strengthen even more
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was reading the comments from another forum and someone said large storms often have a harder time recovering. So i think it would be highly unlikely that Irma would hit the US as anything stronger than a Cat 3.
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still has great chance to recover nicely...soon its off cuba shore... she should redevelop nicely and rather quikly.... especially the enviroment she is headinig towards... cat 4 is still very much plausable when us landfall occurs.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I was reading the comments from another forum and someone said large storms often have a harder time recovering. So i think it would be highly unlikely that Irma would hit the US as anything stronger than a Cat 3.
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Even if Irma was to lose a good deal of strength and say only hit the Keys or the rest of FL as only a 110-115MPH storm (Irma would likely recover a bit more than that but we will use that speed as an example) she would still likely contain a CAT 4 level surge because of her size and the amount of energy she was able to create from all the way to where she was east of the Leeward Islands. Remember Ike in 2008 produced a high-end CAT 4 surge across SE TX/SW LA as a 110MPH storm.

It isn't all about the winds.
 
tennessee storm said:
say starting at 70 plus be good measure to do that...
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Would we want to have boards up on all sides of house or just the N/E sides? What thickness is generally recommended? I am not boarding up anything till a GOM solution verifies. I can use plywood for other things if not for this. Want to make sure I have some on hand though.
 
tennessee storm said:
still has great chance to recover nicely...soon its off cuba shore... she should redevelop nicely and rather quikly.... especially the enviroment she is headinig towards... cat 4 is still very much plausable when us landfall occurs.
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Yes it is. Looking at the HMON is a good example of what could happen. Irma sits at 130 mph and could jump back to 150 or 155 before hitting land per that model. No matter what, Irma staying on land is only going to make things worse for more I feel due to longer Gulf times. Her making the jump from Cuba to Florida in a short distance seems unlikely, so a cat 4 is likely I think.
 
tractor girl said:
Would we want to have boards up on all sides of house or just the N/E sides? What thickness is generally recommended? I am not boarding up anything till a GOM solution verifies. I can use plywood for other things if not for this. Want to make sure I have some on hand though.
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deep down think you are going to be ok tractor girl... but like you said gom solution... then game changes... your nne side wold catch brunt... like your thinking... half inch thick should be plenty... i like your preparing plans... sounds like your thinking ahead.... good idea
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yes it is. Looking at the HMON is a good example of what could happen. Irma sits at 130 mph and could jump back to 150 or 155 before hitting land per that model. No matter what, Irma staying on land is only going to make things worse for more I feel due to longer Gulf times. Her making the jump from Cuba to Florida in a short distance seems unlikely, so a cat 4 is likely I think.
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It's looking like it's gonna ride the Cuban coastline for a good while! It may be moving WNW, but that's the trajectory of Cuba also
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yes it is. Looking at the HMON is a good example of what could happen. Irma sits at 130 mph and could jump back to 150 or 155 before hitting land per that model. No matter what, Irma staying on land is only going to make things worse for more I feel due to longer Gulf times. Her making the jump from Cuba to Florida in a short distance seems unlikely, so a cat 4 is likely I think.
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Is it true that storms that this big a Irma creates there own steering pattern? I've heard that for many years
 
Someone on another forum said he urged someone to evacuate and got a text from her this morning saying "Thanks for nothing".
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Someone on another forum said he urged someone to evacuate and got a text from her this morning saying "Thanks for nothing".
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Now it's too late to evacuate. There's basically no gas in the southern half of Florida and traffic jams are so bad, you could try to leave and get stranded on the road as hurricane is raging
 
Cuba is continuing to suck Irma to the coast like a magnet, which land can often do in these storms. I am not at all sure if this thing doesn't turn until well past 81 degrees longitude and then it could turn and hit the panhandle area or Alabama but thankfully as a much degraded storm, possibly a cat 2. Nobody should let their guard down yet but this next 12+ hours of staying near/on the Cuba coast could save the US mainland
 
MichaelJ said:
Cuba is continuing to suck Irma to the coast like a magnet, which land can often do in these storms. I am not at all sure if this thing doesn't turn until well past 81 degrees longitude and then it could turn and hit the panhandle area or Alabama but thankfully as a much degraded storm, possibly a cat 2. Nobody should let their guard down yet but this next 12+ hours of staying near/on the Cuba coast could save the US mainland
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NHC has a lot of explaining to do. Just last night they basically said interaction with Cuba wouldnt have much impact on Cuba, despite knowing full well it would be interacting with Cuba for a fairly long time.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Someone on another forum said he urged someone to evacuate and got a text from her this morning saying "Thanks for nothing".
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If people here cared what another forum had to say, we would be there reading. You have the best of the best right here. Read more here, post more over there....it might help them out.
 
MichaelJ said:
Cuba is continuing to suck Irma to the coast like a magnet, which land can often do in these storms. I am not at all sure if this thing doesn't turn until well past 81 degrees longitude and then it could turn and hit the panhandle area or Alabama but thankfully as a much degraded storm, possibly a cat 2. Nobody should let their guard down yet but this next 12+ hours of staying near/on the Cuba coast could save the US mainland
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The longer it's stays on Cuba coast the longer it will have in the gulf to intensify once it turns north
 
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