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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1) (2 Viewers)

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#1
The GFS and the Euro has been developing this wave and has been mentioned by the NHC.
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions may
be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while
the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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#4
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward about 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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#5
The Euro's consistency with this wave has been nothing short of remarkable. For at least the past 15 runs in a row (if not more) the Euro has developed this AEW into a TC in some, way, shape or form this week in the east-central Atlantic, with more recent runs obviously becoming more aggressive with its future in the western Atlantic.
 
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#6
NHC raising the odds of development to 40% in the next 5 days...
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 

GaWx

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#9
^ I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike V. earlier in August say that he thought early Sept would be quiet due to MJO and/or the lack of a CCKW?
Like Brent, I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.
 
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#10
The eastern MDR SSTs have caught fire thanks to prolonged anomalous westerly winds in the wake of an MJO pulse now over the IO which is evolving into a quasi-stationary wave...

cdas-sflux_ssta_atltropics_1.png
 
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#13
Chances for development in the next 5 days up to 50%
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
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#16
NHC has raised the chances of TCG to 70% in the next 5 days
1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just
offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days
over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
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#22
NHC continues to raise the odds of development for 93L... Now up to 80% in the next 5 days....

1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few
hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast
to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during
the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
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#24
HWRF and HMON really liking fast formation.
Yeah, I think they're developing this unrealistically too fast, it may be best for us to wait until an actual center forms before we place much credence into the higher resolution hurricane models like the HWRF & HMON... It's a large, broad AEW that will take at least 2-3 days to consolidate into a tropical depression/minimal TS, however conditions appear at least marginally conducive for some gradual development in the eastern Atlantic before they become even more favorable as it nears the longitude of the Antilles.
 

ForsythSnow

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#30
Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC but dang.....
All 3 of those features are strong per that frame. We have a powerful fall trough with a strong high and a strong hurricane there. It is a bit far out, but I feel confident in that trough existing at a relative time to that. What I lack confidence in is of course the storm. It could be sent further south, into the Caribbean and result in the trough missing it and it going elsewhere, or it could get picked up elsewhere dependent on the high size. Too far out but interesting to look at.
 
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