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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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metwannabe said:
Just one run but yeah gfs up the east coast of Fl into SC..

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The surge up through the GA/SC coasts would be unimaginable in that run. Not only do you have a high presource producing onshore gradient wind, but that northern eyewall would rake the coast. While it wouldn't strengthen much when it moved offshore, the winds would definitely respond to much less friction.

That was a horrible run, but luckily the 6z GFS is known to be a little different and I think it was east of 0z yesterday as well.
 
she is massive.. look at that eye


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Arcc said:
The surge up through the GA/SC coasts would be unimaginable in that run. Not only do you have a high presource producing onshore gradient wind, but that northern eyewall would rake the coast. While it wouldn't strengthen much when it moved offshore, the winds would definitely respond to much less friction.

That was a horrible run, but luckily the 6z GFS is known to be a little different and I think it was east of 0z yesterday as well.
Click to expand...

One can only hope that was a bad run


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Arcc said:
The surge up through the GA/SC coasts would be unimaginable in that run. Not only do you have a high presource producing onshore gradient wind, but that northern eyewall would rake the coast. While it wouldn't strengthen much when it moved offshore, the winds would definitely respond to much less friction.

That was a horrible run, but luckily the 6z GFS is known to be a little different and I think it was east of 0z yesterday as well.
Click to expand...
I agree especially since the EPS actually shifted a little west last night so I doubt this run has merit but I thought someone said the UKmet was a little east also... if there are going to be any adjustments back east in the models I think today would be the day to see it so we shall see

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Eps goes west , GEFS goes east and here are the Canadian ensembles that went west
4c5e16f5b24f0483cbff958f378d7584.jpg


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This is absolutely insane!!! Irma is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic wrt wind since Hurricanes Dean & Felix in 2007 and is on a very prestigious and unfortunately, deadly list of past hurricanes that reached this intensity...
7:45 AM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 16.7°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph
 
One thing I want to see and watch today is does it gain latitude for 1, and that 2nd shortwave has been dropping in further west On the models for when it does make the turn
 
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