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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Below 900MB approaching S FL
 
The wobbles will continue with the OPs and ensembles east and west but idea hasn't changed. No significant changes from the 00z runs so far. Not staying up for the Euro

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I know a couple of folks in FL that are not evacuating that live in Orlando. If the hurricane is going right up the middlle of the state, is going to be a cat 4 when it hits, and is that large, it doesn't matter if you are that far inland. It's going to do a lot more damage than it did here when Fran came through, and that was scary enough.
 
Storm5 said:
00z GEFS with a slight east shift but same general idea.
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If it somehow misses FL it's going to be another long week of tracking this thing to GA or SC.
 
GEFS says "not so fast, South Carolina coast."

This thing is annoying. Both ensemble paths mean a big difference for FL and SC/GA.
 
The back and forth is annoying. As soon as it looks like there is a consensus today, now the models want to go back east some. It's like they can't handle big events anymore. I'm used to them being awful when it comes to winter storms around here.
 
I wouldn't say we are seeing huge jumps outside of the wonky NAM these wobbles are probably more of just fine details then on-going shift trends
 
malak05 said:
I wouldn't say we are seeing huge jumps outside of the wonky NAM these wobbles are probably more of just fine details then on-going shift trends
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The problem from the 00z GFS (slight but was there) and it's Ensemble run is that it puts areas like Charleston in a lot worse of a spot storm surge wise, etc.. and help Florida out. There's just enough of a split camp to cause more uncertainty.
 
The HWRF has it going just east of the spine of Florida all the way up to Georgia and maintaining a pretty significant strength that would be nuts
 
EPS: (the euro has spoken, and expect the worst case for FL)
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Looks like the Carolina coasts really lucked out with this one.
 
Shawn said:
Looks like the Carolina coasts really lucked out with this one.
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ATM, things look better for us here to in the central midlands. Esp. if it takes that more westerly track the Euro is depicting. The NHC has their track a little further to the right, as you well know. Do you think Euro is a bit too far west? Also, i'm not sure about it being that close to the northern Cuba coastline. I know the Ukie agreest to a certain extent though. I know some of the other guidance of 0z came in a little more eastward. I'm not sure the NHC will shift the track at 5 AM. Although it's hard to bet against the ESP as well, when it's showing what it is as of now.
 
Indeed, that is a 75 mile adjustment westward for the 0Z EPS vs the 12Z EPS mean along with very strong agreement (almost all members nearly identical). The mean now goes just inland of the west coast of the FL pen. Poor Phil won't like this at all but we can hope for the best for him. Regardless, I'm not going to lie and say I'm not relieved that the possibility of utter devastation in my area is decreasing rapidly. Only 3 of 50 0Z EPS members have a path coming off of FL and then coming back into GA.
 
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DLI4SCwx said:
ATM, things look better for us here to in the central midlands. Esp. if it takes that more westerly track the Euro is depicting. The NHC has their track a little further to the right, as you well know. Do you think Euro is a bit too far west? Also, i'm not sure about it being that close to the northern Cuba coastline. I know the Ukie agreest to a certain extent though. I know some of the other guidance of 0z came in a little more eastward. I'm not sure the NHC will shift the track at 5 AM. Although it's hard to bet against the ESP as well, when it's showing what it is as of now.
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I believe the Euro and the EPS because it has been the best model with less forecast errors with Irma's track so far and it's obviously handling 500mb better.
 
Shawn said:
I believe the Euro and the EPS because it has been the best model with less forecast errors with Irma's track so far and it's obviously handling 500mb better.
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The 0Z EPS actually suggests that IF there is going to be another shift for the Euro op, it would probably be westward again since the 0Z Euro op is a little to the east of the 0Z EPS mean.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS actually suggests that IF there is going to be another shift for the Euro op, it would probably be westward again.
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Even a chance to get into the Eastern Gulf and go for the panhandle.. which sure would be something considering certain mets told the public it wouldn't many days ago.
 
Since the 00z GEFS had a slight east shift, do you believe the NHC will play the middle ground between that and the EPS and the OP? So still, essentially a Miami hit or just slightly to the west?
 
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