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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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DLI4SCwx said:
Since the 00z GEFS had a slight east shift, do you believe the NHC will play the middle ground between that and the EPS and the OP? So still, essentially a Miami hit or just slightly to the west?
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I think after looking at that EPS run, they will keep all of the FL penninsula in the cone and taper it off slightly into our back yards. The cone is just supposed to show where the center of circulation could track, not all the effects.
 
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Looks like she is trying to get her act back together. Convection starting to get going again South and East sides.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Florida is lit up like a Rainbow statewide essentially. That is one consolidated look.
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Yeah, i think there underestimating the wind speed to drop so quick. I think Irma could be a hurricane still for central Ga.
 
I've heard in the past that Florida's low elevation doesn't affect the Hurricanes as much as it would say Cuba. With water on both sides of Florida, how likely is it for it to really weaken as quickly as being projected?
 
GFS is West! Wrecks FL, almost up the spine! Not good for them! :(
 
Bad for GA too! Going up the center of GA, very Euro like!
 
Over ATL @ 96! Very Euro-like track now!
 
6z GFS is definitely west...I fear this is going to be completely devastating after looking at photos of the damage so far from Irma. I feel this thing could shift west, even a little further. Also, another system looks to be forming behind Jose off of Africa. Man, those islands that have already been hit by Irma, now about to be hit by Jose. :(
 
Arcc said:
That is the strongest landfall shown by the Euro so far I think.
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There was an 893 mb shown on the 6z GFS today, just off the coast or over the keys! JB says he thinks lowest pressures of the storm still to come!
 
deltadog03 said:
Larry, do you think Irma will still be a cane once it potentially visits GA?
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Based on King of 1950 as a likely weaker analog, I'd say that would probably be the case in S GA...probably cat 1 though outside chance it is still cat 2 far S GA. It almost definitely would go down to a TS well before ATL and maybe even below MCN a good ways. I think you'd probably be looking at a rare for MCN formidable TS.
 
Only concern ref Georgia, would be for Irma to "rabbit" once it is firmly over land.. Historicly this is a factor as it occured with Eloise and Opal (GOM's) but also with Hugo, and in these cases due to forward speed the systems did not "spin down" quickly in regards to distance traveled inland. IMO "spin down" is more of a time inland as much if not more than distance.
 
GaWx said:
Based on King of 1950 as a likely weaker analog, I'd say that would probably be the case in S GA...probably cat 1 though outside chance it is still cat 2 far S GA. It almost definitely would go down to a TS well before ATL and maybe even below MCN a good ways. I think you'd probably be looking at a rare for MCN formidable TS.
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Gotcha. I agree. I do think cat 1 very possible for GA. Sub 980mb pressures. Pretty rare for us
 
That's going to be like a strong tornado across the whole state of Florida. I don't know why anyone would stay there.
 
Judging by the models I can't think of a much worst case scenario for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina then what is being shown right now.


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This is probably the most extreme member of the EPS for GA. If that were to verify, lights out for almost the whole state. Not going to but damn.

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WXinCanton said:
This is probably the most extreme member of the EPS for GA. If that were to verify, lights out for almost the whole state. Not going to but damn.

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Wow. Never say never....this is Irma. But would think that'a a low low chance. Did this model keep it over water instead of riding central FL??


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MBell said:
Wow. Never say never....this is Irma. But would think that'a a low low chance. Did this model keep it over water instead of riding central FL??


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Just looked it's not that extreme, it just took the center around or just into AL by I20. So if this thing ends in the west side of the cone then could be possible. :/
 
ForsythSnow said:
He's been under a rock. Either that or his brain is a big rock. It's impossible Georgia won't have power outages, and it is also looking like the Gulf is more poasible this morning.
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Why do you say that? That would be a game changer!


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DustinWX said:
Why do you say that? That would be a game changer!


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Irma seems way too big to not cause some form of power outages over the southern 2/3 of Georgia. I doubt there won't be outages around Atlanta or just south of. He was wrong about Harvey from what I have heard, and it sounds like he may be about Irma. For all we know, Irma could go into the Gulf and head right for Alabama. I would like to hear what he would have to say if it does.
 
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