Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Xtreme Weather]

Not much but if we keep giving up a 20nm jog W each run...well let's just see with the GIV data in the 0z run tonight

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Stayed on Shore longer instead of going back into the Atlantic!! I guess better news for Carolinas it will be a little weaker!!

 

[accu35]

To close to comfort. Each little west runs will be horrible even for are gulf coast peeps.

 

[pcbjr]

anyone got an extra chain saw ...

 

[Pessimistic1]

Yeah i know what you mean. I went through Ivan total nightmare

Yeah, I managed to weather Ivan in Gulf Shores in a split level on the Intracoastal...that was a real joy! First floor was under water.

 

[accu35]

Yeah, I managed to weather Ivan in Gulf Shores in a split level on the Intracoastal...that was a real joy! First floor was under water.

Dagum. It was bad

 

[Tarheel1]

Stayed on Shore longer instead of going back into the Atlantic!! I guess better news for Carolinas it will be a little weaker!!

Most likely flooding would be pretty devastating, even with a weak storm, due to oragraphic lift and SE flow, in the Carolinas and Virginias

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Georgia gets a ton of rain on this run...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

lol 971 L just passing by to the west of me, don't buy that but even making it a 1011ish L would be pretty intense.

 

[accu35]

Remember this is just the OP run. Ens are next. Fluctuation will happen

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Georgia gets a ton of rain on this run...

Eastern half of GA i'm assuming ?

 

[Arcc]

Recon data should be in these models for the first time on 0z, we'll see what it looks then.

I'm not expecting much change. The biggest player will be the ULL over the Midwest and that won't be sampled for a while.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Eastern half of GA i'm assuming ?

Pretty much all of Georgia

 

[Pessimistic1]

Dagum. It was bad

Opal, Ivan, Katrina, Frederic, etc., I'm beginning to think I'm a frickin' magnet for these things, that's why I'm watching Irma so closely. And then there's ANOTHER system firing up right behind Irma..oh joy,for joy!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

If this verifies there will be serious flooding issues in East Georgia where it's already rained a lot this summer, and I mean a lot.

 

[WeatherWatch]

lol 971 L just passing by to the west of me, don't buy that but even making it a 1011ish L would be pretty intense.

Well, it's possible that it could be a 971. Irma will be coming in like a wreaking ball.

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[pcbjr]

Well, it's possible that it could be a 971. Irma will be coming in like a wreaking ball.

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IF these runs were to verify (and at this point at 18Z several days out, there is extreme emphasis on IF)... more like a freaking wrecking ball ...

 

[SD]

Most likely flooding would be pretty devastating, even with a weak storm, due to oragraphic lift and SE flow, in the Carolinas and Virginias

Yep not to mention the initial surge of waa would be going atop a wedge at the surface which would have precip falling well ahead of the system itself

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[GeorgiaGirl]

If I were in South FL and saw that there wasn't much change in the model runs by 12z tomorrow, I'd prepare to leave and leave on Wednesday. As it is I'm not but the rain that's been shown is making me nervous...

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Not a hurricane expert, would this storm have tornadoes?