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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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06z gefs shifted back west
d89ee2253ced1ccfd30d670c5d20fd72.jpg


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If it keeps going further west that could just keep it in the water longer and make it stronger.
 
Just talked to a friend that was in Miami on vacation. He left Miami yesterday at lunchtime and he just called me from warner Robbins Ga. 75 dead stopped. I looked up directions to get him off interstate and some back roads.
 
Snow_chaser said:
Just talked to a friend that was in Miami on vacation. He left Miami yesterday at lunchtime and he just called me from warner Robbins Ga. 75 dead stopped. I looked up directions to get him off interstate and some back roads.
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Ya tell him to take hwy 41
 
If the entire eye of Irma makes it into the gulf, wouldn't we be in for rapid intensification? I keep seeing a west shift and this is my biggest concern. How far west will she go? Don't get me wrong, it's concerning regardless of Irma's path, I just would think tapping into the gulf would make matters much worse.
 
I do think there will be widespread power issues especially south of Atlanta but even in Atlanta. Euro has some areas of 70-90mph wind gusts. Ummmm with 2-4” of rain maybe more. We shall see I guess right?
 
To me one of the worse things about a hurricane becoming a monster Cat 5 with 185 mph winds as Irma did, aside from the damage obviously, is when it weakens to a still very dangerous and powerful Cat 4 or even a 3 there seems to be this collective sigh of relief. Almost an well it's weakened so it won't be that bad type of thinking..... this is dangerous thinking.
 
Irma may bend west here shortly but if it doesn't in a couple of hours it will pass just north of NHC forecast point, nothing major I know but it's been mentioned numerous times any shift in path 50 miles or so is big deal
 
DadOfJax said:
I think a worse case scenario is the eyewall stays just offshore in the eastern Gulf headed due north. I know, I know...zero chance...lol
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Hell the way it keeps trending west it may happen. I'd be shocked but anythings possible at this point honestly.


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metwannabe said:
To me one of the worse things about a hurricane becoming a monster Cat 5 with 185 mph winds as Irma did, aside from the damage obviously, is when it weakens to a still very dangerous and powerful Cat 4 or even a 3 there seems to be this collective sigh of relief. Almost an well it's weakened so it won't be that bad type of thinking..... this is dangerous thinking.
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I agree. Irma is giving off this flasr sense of hope by weakening so fast over the last 12 to 24 hours, but in reality, the hurricane models had this happen, and Irma will gain or at least maintain intensity until landfall. It also still means a cat 4 minimum at landfall, or basically hurricane Andrew intensity hitting Miami and/or South Florida.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I agree. Irma is giving off this flasr sense of hope by weakening so fast over the last 12 to 24 hours, but in reality, the hurricane models had this happen, and Irma will gain or at least maintain intensity until landfall. It also still means a cat 4 minimum at landfall, or basically hurricane Andrew intensity hitting Miami and/or South Florida.
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I think that the weakening its gone through the last 24 hrs, from 185 to 150 is going to make a lot of people decide to stay.
 
Sure looks like Irma is approaching the western edge of the WAR.... also when you look at wv loop there is a lot going on at H5 to still work out, that ec trough and those 2 very noticeable sw's diving across Nebraska and the Dakota's. Still a long way to go with this one I'm afraid

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

wg8dlm6.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
I agree. Irma is giving off this flasr sense of hope by weakening so fast over the last 12 to 24 hours, but in reality, the hurricane models had this happen, and Irma will gain or at least maintain intensity until landfall. It also still means a cat 4 minimum at landfall, or basically hurricane Andrew intensity hitting Miami and/or South Florida.
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We saw this with Harvey, odds are this thing will be strengthening at landfall with the new eyewall.
 
I could see this going into the eastern GOM and riding up the west side of Florida with the model trends. We will see here soon if it stays on the current NHC track or goes farther west of the anticipated bend to the north. Nothing is off the table at this point, just my opinion.
 
metwannabe said:
Sure looks like Irma is approaching the western edge of the WAR.... also when you look at wv loop there is a lot going on at H5 to still work out, that ec trough and those 2 very noticeable sw's diving across Nebraska and the Dakota's. Still a long way to go with this one I'm afraid

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

wg8dlm6.GIF
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It was interesting seeing the ensembles tick west again but I still believe we see an east trend . Nothing major like the NAM showed last night . But every little shift has big impacts for Georgia and SC and parts of NC

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Storm5 said:
It was interesting seeing the ensembles tick west again but I still believe we see an east trend . Nothing major like the NAM showed last night . But every little shift has big impacts for Georgia and SC and parts of NC

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Yeah I'm not sure of anything anymore Lol.... when you look at the wind map and see that massive trough and WAR getting beat back you wonder why it's still heading west. I saw one of your post the other night that asked a very good question, why isn't it gonna feel that weakness? (not that I want it, I rather the trough had picked it up and shot out to sea) I guess the trough is lifting and it's missing it but the weakness is still there so I'm about 90% in on the Euro but we know how these go sometimes

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../winkel3=270.81,35.76,1383/loc=-82.813,27.896
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm not sure of anything anymore Lol.... when you look at the wind map and see that massive trough and WAR getting beat back you wonder why it's still heading west. I saw one of your post the other night that asked a very good question, why isn't it gonna feel that weakness? (not that I want it, I rather the trough had picked it up and shot out to sea) I guess the trough is lifting and it's missing it but the weakness is still there so I'm about 90% in on the Euro but we know how these go sometimes

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../winkel3=270.81,35.76,1383/loc=-82.813,27.896
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That is a great map. Thanks
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm not sure of anything anymore Lol.... when you look at the wind map and see that massive trough and WAR getting beat back you wonder why it's still heading west. I saw one of your post the other night that asked a very good question, why isn't it gonna feel that weakness? (not that I want it, I rather the trough had picked it up and shot out to sea) I guess the trough is lifting and it's missing it but the weakness is still there so I'm about 90% in on the Euro but we know how these go sometimes

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../winkel3=270.81,35.76,1383/loc=-82.813,27.896
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Still never got a response lol. Thats a huge weakness, and I still don't get with such a powerful storm why we don't end up with a more northerly track sooner. Then Larry said most storms in the past located at a similar location as Irma almost never turn to the north .

Complicated , yet fun to watch
 
Storm5 said:
It was interesting seeing the ensembles tick west again but I still believe we see an east trend . Nothing major like the NAM showed last night . But every little shift has big impacts for Georgia and SC and parts of NC

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What makes you think this?
 
Probably because the trough is due north of Irma and would have to be more to the west of it to change the flow that it's embedded in.


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Flo said:
What makes you think this?
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As met pointed out if Irma does not take on a more west track over the next few hours it's going to stay a little North of the NHC track. Add to the fact the models have trended ever so slightly stronger with the trough I just think we see a small east correction, nothing major . Ive been wrong before plenty of times.
 
Storm5 said:
Looks like the NHC has Irma as a 45 mph tropical storm around Macon Georgia . That would be really good news for out Georgia friends. The weaker the better

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That would be good, but maybe I’m stubborn. LOL, I am. LOL I think it’ll be pretty close to a minimal hurricanes at that point. yes, it’s going to weekend. But pressures are very low, even well inland. And the models have pretty high sustained winds at certainly higher gusts
 
I think one of the reasons why we might not see this Tran east by the Nam had is because the weakness is a good bit of ways away from Irma right now off to the northeast if it was a little bit deeper it absolutely would pick this up and bring it out
 
The current ERC still isn't complete . We won't see Irma strengthen until it's complete

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