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Pattern June 2022

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Interesting day today with the forecast vs actual. Many of us benefited from the MCS. For me personally, I had some clouds keeping me in the 70s until noon, then the clouds left and the temps soared to the lower 90s; no rain. Hight at GSP and CLT were 91 and 90. CAE was very interesting; in the 70s and 80s most of the day with rain and clouds, BUT managed to it 90 this am before the rain... at 9:13 am!

We may have all dodged a bullet today but we may be in for it tomorrow; though my forecast has dropped to 97 tomorrow, lol. If GSP manages to get through next week without hitting 100 I'll be very impressed. Stay cool friends!
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I think we might be safe from 100 from GSP over to CLT metro the rest of this week, but I’m growing more convinced that next week is gonna be the real deal. I still think that Euro run from earlier today showing widespread 110-112 was over doing it a bit, but I think widespread 102-108 east of the mountains is certainly doable.
 
generally i'm a little skeptical of the modeled heat next week, as we all should be, but at the same time- every dog has its day. ask somebody in seattle or portland how "oh that's ridiculous, it won't be that hot" turned out last year

and I'm not going to lie you can't really script a better heatwave. blob of ultra-high 850s rotating around the ridge into our neck of the woods, some downsloping, no precip risk, low surface dews from the stale canadian air mass that hasn't really had any chance to advect any moisture over. sun angle? literally can't be higher in the sky. next wednesday is the literal longest day of the year. it's pretty devious. next week is really gonna suck
 
ILMRoss said:
generally i'm a little skeptical of the modeled heat next week, as we all should be, but at the same time- every dog has its day. ask somebody in seattle or portland how "oh that's ridiculous, it won't be that hot" turned out last year

and I'm not going to lie you can't really script a better heatwave. blob of ultra-high 850s rotating around the ridge into our neck of the woods, some downsloping, no precip risk, low surface dews from the stale canadian air mass that hasn't really had any chance to advect any moisture over. sun angle? literally can't be higher in the sky. next wednesday is the literal longest day of the year. it's pretty devious. next week is really gonna suck
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0z GFS continued the theme next week... in fact, some near 110 Temps in SC with crazy low dewpoint readings... crazy, it's catching up to close to what the crazy EURO Temps popped up on last night's 0z run.

Today in CHS, no benefits from the MCS as it soared to 98 (111+ heat index). Crazy, a 106 from the GFS with DP's mixing out into the low 50s would result in lower heat index values... (it would also shatter the June monthly record of 103 and the all time record of 105 in CHS (August 1st, 1992)
 
My goodness the 3k NAM is a sbCAPE bomb, 5500+ for some areas of western Carolinas
 
0z Eps mean has back to back 100s here that's impressive especially at this lead. The op has backed off the roughly 28c 850s it was showing down to around 26c which is still incredible for our area but might keep the 110s from happening and many locations in the 102-106range (small victories I guess). The only bugaboo to getting extreme heat will be the potential for some debris clouds directed in from the west and maybe a decaying MCS (see yesterday for how that can impact heat, 100 is hard to do around here much like 6+ inches of snow any limiting factor and it won't happen)

If I had to throw some numbers out I would go 103 Tuesday at RDU 105 Wednesday and 98 Thursday. I think someone in the Goldsboro to Fayetteville to Maxton heat corridor in NC pushes close to 108-109 Wednesday
 
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SD said:
0z Eps mean has back to back 100s here that's impressive especially at this lead. The op has backed off the roughly 28c 850s it was showing down to around 26c which is still incredible for our area but might keep the 110s from happening and many locations in the 102-106range (small victories I guess). The only bugaboo to getting extreme heat will be the potential for some debris clouds directed in from the west and maybe a decaying MCS (see yesterday for how that can impact heat, 100 is hard to do around here much like 6+ inches of snow any limiting factor and it won't happen)

If I had to throw some numbers out I would go 103 Tuesday at RDU 105 Wednesday and 98 Thursday. I think someone in the Goldsboro to Fayetteville to Maxton heat corridor in NC pushes close to 108-109 Wednesday
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It's also worth noting that 26-28°C 850 hPa temps would smash record highs per sounding climatology.

IOILQJz.png
 
StormDrain said:
It's also worth noting that 26-28°C 850 hPa temps would smash record highs per sounding climatology.

IOILQJz.png
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Yeah the 12z gfs falls into a more realistic scenario of 850s 23-25c which is typical of our 100-105 heat waves. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro is doing what the euro has a tendency to do in the warm season and overheating
 
SD said:
Yeah the 12z gfs falls into a more realistic scenario of 850s 23-25c which is typical of our 100-105 heat waves. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro is doing what the euro has a tendency to do in the warm season and overheating
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Yep, all weather models also have a tendency to forecast too low dew points by several °F too (a mixing bias)

Either way though, Imma hope for the first >=100°F high in years here next Wednesday.
 
2PM Georgia Obs. Atlanta getting to 100 today might be a coin flip.

Atlanta 96/71
Macon 100/73
Rome 97/71
Augusta 98/73
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Not liking the ridging on the GFS from day 10 onwards. Showing what could be the nastiest heat wave in years here with temps near or above 100 for multiple days.
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GFS warned us back in early June and we all thought it was off it's rocker lol.

EDIT: The good news is that the GFS is starting to consistently show this ridging pattern break down in the long range.
 
jrips27 said:
99 was the high in Atlanta.

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 99 WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1943.
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The airport and surrounding areas probably allowed for that 3 degrees of extra heat. 1943 had a lot less pavement and more trees in the area.
 
weatherfide said:
The airport and surrounding areas probably allowed for that 3 degrees of extra heat. 1943 had a lot less pavement and more trees in the area.
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I dont understand why they cant have the official station at a different location to better represent the weather accurately.
 
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