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Pattern June 2022

Hmmm, 98°F at DFW now. Might still have a shot at 100°F after all.

It's the warmest day of the year to-date, BTW.
 
For the first time this event, the 00z EURO is even hotter than the GFS in the long range.

While the GFS didn't have any significant changes with the pattern, it does show the ridge taking much more of a beating from tropical disturbances than before.
 
As one last weak shortwave track around the peripheru of the ridge, some convection has developed this morning in SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas along with mid-level cloud cover, moving SSE

Although it shouldn't have a huge impact on the overall forecast, it may help to keep temps a bit cooler than expected in areas affected by the cloud debris & outflow boundaries depending on how widespread the activity becomes.
 
SD said:
Pattern coming up should be ok for rain chances but yeah any widespread drought relief doesn't look as good as it might have yesterday.
Click to expand...
Looking at the 6z gfs the concern of the old "drought begets drought" fear starts to enter the back of my mind. Is it a coincidence the precip minimum overlays the severe drought zone? This is the entire runs total.
 

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6z GFS is intersting. It's been advertising the heatwave after the 20th to be even hotter than next weeks, but the 6z brings through a front from almost due North and shows a couple of very pleasant days and nights, with a general return to seasonal or below average temps for the duration of the run. Who knows what will happen at this lead but its a way better look than its been showing.

gfs_T2m_us_51.png


gfs_T2m_us_53.png
 
Ugh, I was telling you all I didn't like what I was seeing on the GFS. Looks like the death ridge is real. Looking at weather.com forcast, mid-high 90s through the entire forecast. We need a bermuda ridge to set up off shore so we can get some southerly flow back into the SE....yes it will increase humidity, but it'll also give us higher daily rain chances with pop up convection.

That being said, as @Iceagewhereartthou posted above, 6z does push the death ridge back towards the west and we started getting some eastern troughing which could save the SE. Ofc, the central and western US bake in this regime.
 
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