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Pattern June 2022

Today's high at DFW was 94*F. It could potentially be the last time we see highs in the 90s for a while.

Had some low clouds this morning, but those mixed out fairly quickly after sunrise into a SCT-BKN CU field.
 
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Here's GSPs thoughts on the next few days

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.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 2016 67 1955 67 2018 41 1903
1933 2004
1907 1958
KCLT 99 1958 66 1906 76 1958 49 2019
1921 1881
KGSP 98 1885 60 1906 74 2010 46 1903
1921

RECORDS FOR 06-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1952 63 1917 68 2004 42 1933
1969
1958
KCLT 99 2015 60 1884 75 1998 51 1933
1981
KGSP 97 1981 69 1965 74 1918 51 1904
1885 1906

RECORDS FOR 06-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1934 62 1961 69 1939 43 1933
KCLT 99 2015 62 1965 75 1998 52 1961
KGSP 98 1981 65 1979 73 1914 50 1917

I hate this kind of weather with a passion, but there's naught to be done about it. Hopefully we can avoid the 100+ and we can get a breakdown the following week, at least back to "normal temps" but I am a bit afraid this could be long term. Given how early this is starting, I hope we aren't looking at another 2016 with mid 90s for months on end.
 
metwannabe said:
So 3k NAM completely dried up for tomorrow, shocked I tell you just shocked

nam3km_apcpn_seus_20.png
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Tomorrow is painful. The whole premise for the heavy rain was the strong incoming shortwave and the mcv interacting with the westward moving warm front giving us sfc development and a heavy rain event. Now the mcv is headed for the gulf and the shortwave is meh so we are depending on meager upper level support and some weak sfc convergence from the warm front. I think any model showing 0 for tomorrow is probably a little underdone but we certainly missed a good chance at a drought denter
 
SD said:
Tomorrow is painful. The whole premise for the heavy rain was the strong incoming shortwave and the mcv interacting with the westward moving warm front giving us sfc development and a heavy rain event. Now the mcv is headed for the gulf and the shortwave is meh so we are depending on meager upper level support and some weak sfc convergence from the warm front. I think any model showing 0 for tomorrow is probably a little underdone but we certainly missed a good chance at a drought denter
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I go on vacation next week so won't be here to continue to water the grass, plus with this starting to be a long term issue and ground water getting low plus I have a well (although a deep well and should be fine for some time) I'll probably sacrifice the lawn. Sprinklers will go silent after Sunday
 
metwannabe said:
I go on vacation next week so won't be here to continue to water the grass, plus with this starting to be a long term issue and ground water getting low plus I have a well (although a deep well and should be fine for some time) I'll probably sacrifice the lawn. Sprinklers will go silent after Sunday
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Nice! Yeah man don't sweat it while on vacation. Good thing is convective chances look decent all week next week hard to imagine a shutout
 
Sigh..been a very nice week overall, decent humidity levels, nice evenings and mornings with a breeze. Down to 58 this morning for me, very nice. I wish we could put that on repeat for the summer but... ?

Actually, just looking at this morning's runs the suite seems to have backed off a hair on the heat, the GFS is actually quite different, the 6z went sub 100 for Tues and the 12 actually shows rain with some significantly lower temps for Tues, BUT it brings the big heat still for the 20th.. However, it breaks that down with tropical system thereafter.

I mean, we're still talking a lot of 90s here, but if we can avoid the upper 90s and 100s...
 
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That drought is going to expand like wildfire across much of TX (not so much OK or the Panhandle because of this week's MCS train) these next 2 weeks if the GFS is right.
 
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