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Pattern June 2022

Lunchtime obs 08D446B5-E819-43B4-9673-ED5D7167F016.png
 
NorthDFWwx said:
And lol at Metro Atlanta and the storms. Some things never change...
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LOL,,,Yes, the problem is the KATL forecast area is massive, almost half the state since GA got jipped off by two lesser states to the E and W with multiple NWS offices. Lets look at small South Carolina, they have NWS offices and Radars in GSP< CAE and CHS. Alabama three offices and radars, HSV, BHM, and MOB. Ga, a much bigger, (area), and population has one, at KATL, and don't give the the BS that the other offices do a good job at covering the portions of GA not by KATL, because they dont. BS
 
Got up to 92 around 1 before the dying storms moved in. Have since recovered and its up to 93 as of now.

Looks like tomorrow will have a shot at the warmest day of the year so far, but hopefully we can squeeze out a storm at some point.
 
I mean this won’t verify but the 12z GFS has Atlanta getting to 106 tomorrow? Why is it so bad
 
weatherfide said:
I don't know how accurate it is. 106 tomorrow in Atlanta? It won't get there if there is convection firing around the area again.
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For sure - I wasn’t saying it’s going to be accurate. I don’t think Atlanta will get over 100 tomorrow. I was more just observing that the GFS could be so far off on this particular run.
 
jrips27 said:
For sure - I wasn’t saying it’s going to be accurate. I don’t think Atlanta will get over 100 tomorrow. I was more just observing that the GFS could be so far off on this particular run.
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Is your thinking that Atlanta won't get above 100 tomorrow because of clouds ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
Is your thinking that Atlanta won't get above 100 tomorrow because of clouds ?
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Yeah. I think you might see 98-100 but I would surprised by anything higher before we get some clouds. But who knows! Will be fun to follow. Does seem like some of the shorter range guidance is trending warmer. NWS looks like they are going with 98-99 in the city tomorrow. Going to be miserable for sure.
 
SD said:
If the Euro is right with 25-28c 850s mid next week rdu should challenge or break the all time record of 105.

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Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t the Euro have the tendency of mixing out surface dewpoints too much at this range. I mean that is showing KCLT with a high of 110 when the All-time record high is 104.
 
Chazwin said:
Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t the Euro have the tendency of mixing out surface dewpoints too much at this range. I mean that is showing KCLT with a high of 110 when the All-time record high is 104.
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I mean we saw last year in the Pacific Northwest that the right setup can shatter all time records. 104 isn't really that high of an all-time record...Charlotte can definitely shatter that if the center of the ridge is positioned in the right way and enough heat can build at the surface.

EDIT: Not saying the Euro is right, but I wouldn't use the old all-time record as a limit for how hot it can potentially get.
 
I know you Raleigh folks thinking your temps busted, but it sure didn't here.

Seems like that leftover mcs and cloud deck only shaved 2-3 off the top. Still mid 90s.

Off to the pool I go!
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I mean we saw last year in the Pacific Northwest that the right setup can shatter all time records. 104 isn't really that high of an all-time record...Charlotte can definitely shatter that if the center of the ridge is positioned in the right way and enough heat can build at the surface.

EDIT: Not saying the Euro is right, but I wouldn't use the old all-time record as a limit for how hot it can potentially get.
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I understand and what happened last year in in Seattle and Portland certainly shows what can happen if a ridge is centered just perfectly for that location… obviously that something that an operational model is probably not gonna be perfect on 7 days out.
 
smast16 said:
I know you Raleigh folks thinking your temps busted, but it sure didn't here.

Seems like that leftover mcs and cloud deck only shaved 2-3 off the top. Still mid 90s.

Off to the pool I go!
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This is probably the nicest excessive heat warning day I've ever experienced. 91 for the high with a DP in the upper 60s to near 70.
 
It is interesting that GSP noted in their discussion Saturday afternoon that it was unusual to see the models putting out the kind of temperatures it was for today and even tomorrow without capping out the atmosphere much. This doesn’t look to be an issue next week at this time and certainly looks like some spots could make a run at All-time records.
 
Chazwin said:
I understand and what happened last year in in Seattle and Portland certainly shows what can happen if a ridge is centered just perfectly for that location… obviously that something that an operational model is probably not gonna be perfect on 7 days out.
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With the amped up pattern we have these days it much more likely.
 
Chazwin said:
Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t the Euro have the tendency of mixing out surface dewpoints too much at this range. I mean that is showing KCLT with a high of 110 when the All-time record high is 104.
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Typically yeah it gets too ridgy and mixed in the piedmont post D5 and has to correct to summer climo as we get closer to verification. It may still be too low on dews but what it's spitting out regarding temps makes sense. Airmass originating from the Mexican plateau making the trek around the ridge and into our area on the NW is how we typically go 100+. If we truly realize 25-28c 850s all time records will get beaten pretty handily, I never thought I would see 110 here in my life time but I'm honestly questioning that right now
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Environment remains favorable for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours, especially
for the I-20 corridor southward. 18Z sounding shows high surface
based CAPE values of 4000+ J/kg with DCAPE Values around 1200
J/Kg. Mid level lapse rates are more marginal and around 6 C/km.
Areas along and south of Macon to Columbus will be well worked
over, while areas just south of the ATL metro haven`t been worked
over yet. Models are progging a decrease in coverage and strength
of storms with the loss of heating late this evening.

The environment looks to be as good or better for storms tomorrow.
Mid level lapse rates are even steeper and CAPE values are 4000+
J/kg. There are some indications within the models of another MCS
type cluster of storms impacting the CWA during the afternoon and
evening. With similar conditions today, think storms should pop
first in the eastern/southern CWA around the periphery of the high
center in the mid levels.

Before good storm coverage in the east central portion of the CWA,
started to see some Heat Index values around 110 degrees. Expect
much the same tomorrow. Went ahead and issued an Excessive Heat
Watch for portions of east central GA. Later shifts can decide to
upgrade to either an Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory. Areas
outside of the Heat Watch will be in Heat Advisory, with mountains of
far NE GA the only exception.
 
Your high temps for tomorrow per the 18z GFS. If it's anything close to this tomorrow it'll be a major win as the National Blend of Models is running 5-8 degrees cooler for most locations.

gfs-deterministic-southapps-t2m_f-5323200.png
 
Interesting day today with the forecast vs actual. Many of us benefited from the MCS. For me personally, I had some clouds keeping me in the 70s until noon, then the clouds left and the temps soared to the lower 90s; no rain. Hight at GSP and CLT were 91 and 90. CAE was very interesting; in the 70s and 80s most of the day with rain and clouds, BUT managed to it 90 this am before the rain... at 9:13 am!

We may have all dodged a bullet today but we may be in for it tomorrow; though my forecast has dropped to 97 tomorrow, lol. If GSP manages to get through next week without hitting 100 I'll be very impressed. Stay cool friends!
 
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