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Pattern June 2022

LovingGulfLows said:
Ugh, I was telling you all I didn't like what I was seeing on the GFS. Looks like the death ridge is real. Looking at weather.com forcast, mid-high 90s through the entire forecast. We need a bermuda ridge to set up off shore so we can get some southerly flow back into the SE....yes it will increase humidity, but it'll also give us higher daily rain chances with pop up convection.

That being said, as @Iceagewhereartthou posted above, 6z does push the death ridge back towards the west and we started getting some eastern troughing which could save the SE. Ofc, the central and western US bake in this regime.
Click to expand...

The saving grace for you all further east may be a persistent -NAO block, which would keep any ridging and heat releases to the east fairly transient.

At the same time though, that outcome would only enhance the temperatures out this way because of compressional heating under the NW flow and further drying out of soils.
 
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LovingGulfLows said:
Ugh, I was telling you all I didn't like what I was seeing on the GFS. Looks like the death ridge is real. Looking at weather.com forcast, mid-high 90s through the entire forecast. We need a bermuda ridge to set up off shore so we can get some southerly flow back into the SE....yes it will increase humidity, but it'll also give us higher daily rain chances with pop up convection.

That being said, as @Iceagewhereartthou posted above, 6z does push the death ridge back towards the west and we started getting some eastern troughing which could save the SE. Ofc, the central and western US bake in this regime.
Click to expand...
Yep once we establish these big continental us heat ridges it often takes fall to get rid of them. My earlier post about the heat won't last long was more of a joke than reality. The current version of the heat ridge should slowly retrograde in time to the central SW us but the next 10 days will be warm with the centered so close. Once it retrograde we will temper back closer to average with better chances at rain. That said with that ridge lurking and the ability to squeeze it east at times we will at minimum have bouts of extreme heat (highs 95-105) through the next 30-45 days
 
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NorthDFWwx said:
The saving grace for you all further east may be a persistent -NAO block, which would keep any ridging and heat releases to the east fairly transient.

At the same time though, that outcome would only enhance the temperatures out this way because of compressional heating under the NW flow and further drying out of soils.
Click to expand...
That -NAO block and how persistent it remains is why I think you guys will bake all summer and into fall and us in the east I think will see good periods set up with daily storm chances. We even see that later this week after KCLT has a 4 days 98-102, we start seeing storm chances ramp back up on the back side
 
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