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Pattern June 2022

Up to .85 here from a strong storm and light to moderate rain since then. Thankfully not as much wind as I expected with it.
 
Awesome T-Storms here on the immediate Coast w/the front moving through.. Plenty of rain that we needed..
72F currenty~T-storms
 
Way out there but sustained high heat showing up towards the middle of the month on the GFS the past couple of runs. I really hope this is overdone or folds completely!

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Iceagewhereartthou said:
Way out there but sustained high heat showing up towards the middle of the month on the GFS the past couple of runs. I really hope this is overdone or folds completely!

gfs_T2m_us_39.png


gfs_T2m_us_43.png


gfs_T2m_us_51.png


gfs_T2m_us_47.png


gfs_T2m_us_55.png


View attachment 118942
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The op may be over heating at 2m which it has a tendency to do. That said the 12z gefs so far and the 0z eps means support a hotter pattern after D10 with the west to east elongated ridge axis and warm 850s being directed into the region.
 
Also that's a respectable look on Friday and Saturday for a real late season severe event Friday and Saturday. We might be a little low on shear but man it doesn't look bad
 
Will have to watch that Wednesday - Friday period here. Could get some ridge-riding MCS.
 
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DFW made it to 83*F yesterday.

The Fort Worth side of the Metroplex and the far southern suburbs actually saw flash flooding with several inches of rain yesterday as nearly stationary thunderstorms blew up with the remnant MCV moving through. We only got light stratiform rain from it here
 
SD said:
This is a good way to get a heat wave in the SE. Squeeze the SW/4 corners ridge east then expand the ridge center and lock it in over the SE. OofView attachment 118952
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The last few frames would be rough for the Carolinas if it verifies. Downsloping would add 3-5 to the max temps in portions of both states.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Not liking the ridging on the GFS from day 10 onwards. Showing what could be the nastiest heat wave in years here with temps near or above 100 for multiple days.
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It’s been 7 years since KCLT recorded a 100 degree high, so we’re definitely due for spell like that.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Not liking the ridging on the GFS from day 10 onwards. Showing what could be the nastiest heat wave in years here with temps near or above 100 for multiple days.
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I’m willing to bet temps come off 10 degrees. At least back this way it just doesn’t get over a 100 anymore. We always get these types of model runs just for them to come back to reality. Like low to mid 90’s for most which is still hot but not 100-105 type hot.
 
I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit a concerned that ongoing MCS in OK will impact North Texas later today.

Upper level shear is kind of lacking and capping is pretty stout now (which should make it harder to maintain organization), but this complex is tied to a MCV which tend to do their own thing while both the corfidi vectors and instability gradient would support propagation into this region.
 
82/64
78F (currently)
Dew & Humidity are @ 63F & 63% respectively
Partly cloudy
Pressure 29.85 in

BLOWING NE at 27mph,, gust(s) too 33mph.
Small craft advisories are UP..
Not a great day for boating.. 652.JPG
 
iGRXY said:
I’m willing to bet temps come off 10 degrees. At least back this way it just doesn’t get over a 100 anymore. We always get these types of model runs just for them to come back to reality. Like low to mid 90’s for most which is still hot but not 100-105 type hot.
Click to expand...
That's the wave I was talking about yesterday, looks really nasty. I too, would be willing to bet it moderates, but it seems to have potential unfortunately. I noticed the 12z yesterday backed off to the low to mid 90s but the 18z brought it back even hotter. Looks like this morning's 6z squashes most of it sw after a couple of hot days, which is a better look at least. We'll have to keep an eye on it.
 
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