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Pattern June 2022

This is a good way to get a heat wave in the SE. Squeeze the SW/4 corners ridge east then expand the ridge center and lock it in over the SE. OofView attachment 118952
The last few frames would be rough for the Carolinas if it verifies. Downsloping would add 3-5 to the max temps in portions of both states.
 
Not liking the ridging on the GFS from day 10 onwards. Showing what could be the nastiest heat wave in years here with temps near or above 100 for multiple days.
It’s been 7 years since KCLT recorded a 100 degree high, so we’re definitely due for spell like that.
 
Not liking the ridging on the GFS from day 10 onwards. Showing what could be the nastiest heat wave in years here with temps near or above 100 for multiple days.
I’m willing to bet temps come off 10 degrees. At least back this way it just doesn’t get over a 100 anymore. We always get these types of model runs just for them to come back to reality. Like low to mid 90’s for most which is still hot but not 100-105 type hot.
 
I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit a concerned that ongoing MCS in OK will impact North Texas later today.

Upper level shear is kind of lacking and capping is pretty stout now (which should make it harder to maintain organization), but this complex is tied to a MCV which tend to do their own thing while both the corfidi vectors and instability gradient would support propagation into this region.
 
82/64
78F (currently)
Dew & Humidity are @ 63F & 63% respectively
Partly cloudy
Pressure 29.85 in

BLOWING NE at 27mph,, gust(s) too 33mph.
Small craft advisories are UP..
Not a great day for boating.. 652.JPG
 
I’m willing to bet temps come off 10 degrees. At least back this way it just doesn’t get over a 100 anymore. We always get these types of model runs just for them to come back to reality. Like low to mid 90’s for most which is still hot but not 100-105 type hot.
That's the wave I was talking about yesterday, looks really nasty. I too, would be willing to bet it moderates, but it seems to have potential unfortunately. I noticed the 12z yesterday backed off to the low to mid 90s but the 18z brought it back even hotter. Looks like this morning's 6z squashes most of it sw after a couple of hot days, which is a better look at least. We'll have to keep an eye on it.
 
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