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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

for NE GA and the upstate, a lot of times it is the track of the storm, and this one looks pretty decent at this point. if we can get the right track then there should be a decent chance of seeing some flakes. of course mixing is usually a concern at some point. These details show up on various model runs but it is still too far for the models to really nail it down.

that being said, if the track is good and with the time of year, this looks to be lining up as a decent chance of snow for a lot of us
 
Chattownsnow said:
View attachment 62466
this is the 00z UKIE loop for those interested. Pulled this from someone who posted it on another forum so creditgoes over there.
Click to expand...

That's sort of the storm evolution on radar I would expect with a 3 contoured ULL moving that far south. The problem seems to be a lack of cold air near the surface so that modeled reflectivity is probably a bit over optimistic for GA.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Man, that's close to something pretty good here and I haven't held out too much hope of this system, at all.
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It's pretty close down here as well. Recent run-to-run soundings have been getting colder at the surface degree by degree. Prior runs had it iffy at 925 but the newer runs have been closing that gap.
12Z today

gfs_2021010412_090_34.25--84.0.png


Vs 12Z yesterday

gfs_2021010312_114_34.25--84.0.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's pretty close down here as well. Recent run-to-run soundings have been getting colder at the surface degree by degree. Prior runs had it iffy at 925 but the newer runs have been closing that gap.
12Z today

gfs_2021010412_090_34.25--84.0.png


Vs 12Z yesterday

gfs_2021010312_114_34.25--84.0.png
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That sounding is like 1 or 2 degrees off in the lower levels from a wet snow. It's no wonder the GEFS has trended better for portions of NGA. I'm curious when NAM/RGEM gets into range.
 
superjames1992 said:
17.8” for GSO and 0.7” for RDU. LOL. What a crazy solution. Not gonna happen, though.
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You get crazy lollipops with ULLs. Feb 28 ,2004 prime example. Not saying,pointing out 17 to 20 inch accums. But trying to illustrate you get these swaths where someone gets jackpotted in a narrow strip, while everyone else gets crumbs comparatively speaking.
What you see on these clown maps will happen.
However keep in mind for this storm a jackpot is a few wet inches in the grass verse a few miles up an down the road only expierencing white rain.
 
If the deform band becomes a common persistent feature on high res models and we haven’t handed this threat off to the mid Atlantic in 2-3 days, I will 100% bite on this threat and gladly eat as much crow as you’d like to throw at me. Snow on Xmas morning then on my birthday (Jan 9) in the same winter would be my dream punishment for looking like a total clown thinking this storm wouldn’t do much in the days leading up to it outside the mtns
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's pretty close down here as well. Recent run-to-run soundings have been getting colder at the surface degree by degree. Prior runs had it iffy at 925 but the newer runs have been closing that gap.
12Z today

gfs_2021010412_090_34.25--84.0.png


Vs 12Z yesterday

gfs_2021010312_114_34.25--84.0.png
Click to expand...
I think GA just needs better rates. Just too warm at the surface even with a semi-conducive atmosphere.
 
I'm going to go with the 12Z UKMET snow accumulation map on this storm. I think this is the typical climo hit that we will get from it. I hope I am wrong with respect to my area, but it's just too hard to beat climo most of the time.

UKMET_TotalSnow10-1_MA_2021-04-21_12Z_FHr120_PW.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the deform band becomes a common persistent feature on high res models and we haven’t handed this threat off to the mid Atlantic in 2-3 days, I will 100% bite on this threat and gladly eat as much crow as you’d like to throw at me. Snow on Xmas morning then on my birthday (Jan 9) in the same winter would be my dream punishment for looking like a total clown thinking this storm wouldn’t do much in the days leading up to it outside the mtns
Click to expand...
I think overall you were right the temps are definitely marginal but I think what models are picking up .. with the deformation band that will be making someone very very happy.. those rates will cool the Atmosphere and bring some heavy snow down on where ever it sets up... and we all know the location of it won’t be known really until it actually forms on radar but we will have a good idea about it once it’s a day or two away ... cmon wake county don’t F this up we are like perfectly in the center of the state let this thing line up!!
 
UKMET also shows some upper level energy after the system that’s close to some snow,
74A02B31-8D97-4453-A23C-0056C5C8B31A.jpegA2618D96-0985-4A1C-ACA0-793B1A15A53D.png
also here’s the difference vs last night and today
00z4EEF6430-A58E-49F4-BD7B-3D8EC08E131A.jpeg
12z0DB2A2E6-C242-47B3-91F2-6F5CB171D528.jpeg
 
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