Like this overall trend with the upper level low 
Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
-
- Tags
- winter
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
About the same, better for the upstate, worse for the northern edge.
Know we have had some posters asking for a better zoomed in version of our area so here's the final total for WNC, the Upstate, and NE GA.
Been said for a few days but that much blocking to the north, no where for it to go but south.
This is the StormVista precip map courtesy of Griteater. Looks about right IMHO, snow in the mountains, with snow showers mixed in further east.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah it wouldn't surprise me of NC stays mostly dry. Drastic shifts to the south run to run
These soundings still make me uneasy, but you lose the intense SW flow in them as you get towards the more backside part of the system 
I wouldn’t worry about precip, I’d expect it to be heavier considering that usually with more WAA (warm nose), there’s more frotogenesis (heavy precip bands). Thermals are the main issue.
Man, that's close to something pretty good here and I haven't held out too much hope of this system, at all.
The cold aloft isn't the most impressive thing you have ever seen but there's enough to get the job done especially with it trending slightly colder. The Track of the ULL is the biggest reason I am extremely cautiously optimistic. The track takes it 30 - 40 miles south of I20 which is a perfect track for the upstate to have a chance in this setup. Still need to see the trend of colder mid and lower levels though.
The v16 GFS has a ripping deform band in the Piedmont of NC with nice soundings 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
And just to think that will be our new GFS. That would be a classic storm for NC though
Our soundings aren't that terrible. We ride the line between snow/rain the entire event with the middle part a solid rain sounding. Given the potential for this to be a banded event someone in the right spot probably walks away with a white ground or small accumulation while the rest of us count the mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain. I'd feel more confident if I lived in the GSO to HKY to the mountains area
Wow. 5 inches in Pittsboro. LOL. Evidently Mix 101.5 is getting in on the action. They said NW mountains could see some wet snow out of this.
What happened to the Deformation Band? It lays down a good stipe of snow from Charlotte to Greensboro and then It seems to just fizzle out once it hits the Eastern half of NC.
Definitely got to watch the FGEN here. The 6z was pretty stout but backed off a decent amount on the 12z. One thing to note is the new GFS has precip starting in the evening where most others do not have it rolling through until after midnight and closer to 4 am. And that deform band is a beaut on the backend and over the years those always seem to roll through the I85 corridor.
This event somewhat reminds me of this one (not an identical synoptic setup but from a thermal structure and potential ptype distribution). Could be a narrow zone where rates and timing meet up to produce some slushy accumulations, especially if the slower timing of some of the other guidance is correct. FWIW - winter storm warnings for this event were issued along the NC border counties and it trended way south in the last 24 hours...
CMC is about to be absolute garbage, it has less confluence/slightly larger heights ahead of the system so it heads NE
