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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

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Rain Cold said:
I honestly don't think there's any way to answer this question. My guess is it will do a low amp loop into 5/6/7 and then probably get into 8. No evidence to support that other than it seems to want to do that the last year or two late in the season.
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Yeah, watch it head into 8/1/2 into the indian Ocean as we head into April/may, and by that time those phases support torching vs cold
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's light but I'll take it. Not too far off from here.
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If it cuts off, as it has been trending, and comes in stronger, wouldn't be surprised to see that increase with the ull. I just need it to tilt sooner to pull that slp back NW. Wouldn't it be something if y'all could score from the ull and coastal folks from the slp?

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It's literally squeezing flurries out of the atmosphere, I'd call it dragon fodder for now, but sure, these upper level cut offs can definitely make it happen.
 
To go with the above post, I'd be willing to bet verbatim, the dendritic growth zone wouldn't have adequate saturation to make flakes with that dry air wrapping in. Could change.
 
Euro not as hot as 12z yesterday out to 174 throughout Canada but hotter than 00z..gonna be another dumpster fire run either way
 
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Shawn said:
To go with the above post, I'd be willing to bet verbatim, the dendritic growth zone wouldn't have adequate saturation to make flakes with that dry air wrapping in. Could change.
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Well at least we have soundings from the euro on pivotal now! Here's a spot from west GA around Rome.
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Now compare this with the last run same location and time
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It's much wetter than my area, which has the DGZ completely unsaturated at the moment, but it's a noticeable trend.
 
deltadog03 said:
If this continues to trend a little bit stronger, a little slower, and little further SW.,..I wouldn't be surprised if we see a strip of snow coming in.
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Let's just hope it's not showing it's hand too early, don't want it to end up in Canada Lol

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Storm5 said:
The day 8/9 system on the euro could be close for some especially on the onset if timed right
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Another one of those favored high northern tiers of NC deals. None of which have worked out so far this year, so color me skeptical
 
Sounding across GA now show, at least for this run, good moisture up in the snow growth region. Still a bit dry in low levels, but that has increased as well. Let’s see if this trend continues.
 
12z EPS mean continues the prior runs' trend of SW movement of that darker green 500 mb ht line though only slight vs the prior run. Precip mean still inching ever so slowly toward the coast.

I expect a good number of members to once again show snow near the SE coast and some into N FL. We'll see.
 
Next week late system would probably stay in the southern stream, per 12z Euro OP and the GEFS mean. I'd expect this low pressure to trend south on the GFS OP. I wouldn't be surprised to see some ice with this at the on set for parts of NC and maybe far northern parts of SC. I'd say there even could be some sleet mixing in with the rain as well at the on set for CAD regions of GA/into upstate SC. If any frozen precip, it won't last long. GEFSUS_prec_meanprec_174.png
 
GaWx said:
12z EPS mean continues the prior runs' trend of SW movement of that darker green 500 mb ht line though only slight vs the prior run. Precip mean still inching ever so slowly toward the coast.

I expect a good number of members to once again show snow near the SE coast and some into N FL. We'll see.
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whatalife said:
WOMP! Days 5-10 and 10-15...This sucks.
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Geez...I though that mega GOA ridge to start off January was bad....but consolidated PV over the pole and trough over AK can suck just the same.

I think what has become evident is the -EPO fail. That sure does seem that isn't going to happen this winter.
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KyloG said:
Geez...I though that mega GOA ridge to start off January was bad....but consolidated PV over the pole and trough over AK can suck just the same.

I think what has become evident is the -EPO fail. That sure does seem that isn't going to happen this winter.
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-EPO has failed us and with that there is very little hope for winter at this present time. Can it change I guess but it doesn’t look good.


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Does anyone have the EPS mjo from a week ago I’m interested to see how it’s been doing with mjo compared to the CFS/GFS?
 
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