packfan98
Moderator
Did you know that practically all of Europe is further north than us in the SE? London has approximately the same Latitude as Saskatoon in Canada.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Boy that sure is trending the wrong way. Hard. Getting worse out in time.
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So, just to make sure @pcbjr is aware of this, once again nearly 20% of the EPS members (9) have snow in N FL! And note that whereas the mean dropped in coastal GA/SC/NC, it remained or even increased in NE FL! We know future runs will change, but wouldn't it be amazing if the only active member to get snow from this system would be Phil? And remember his prediction for a quick burst of unusual SE winter weather this month that he made months ago?! Hmmmm. If N FL ends up getting snow, I may ask him to buy me some lottery tickets. Just to reiterate, in the years since individual EPS members have been available, I don't recall anything like this near Phil's abode keeping in mind that 850s were above 0C in Jan of 2018 in Hogtown.
Meanwhile, today is an absolutely glorious winter day in the SE! It has been a long wait for me. Enjoy it while you can. I'll be out in it later.
CFS still looking really good for all of Feb and really March. Week by week, days 1-7 are ugly, and then it looks good every week after. Can't imagine it has even a shot at being right...but we'll see soon enough. Wonder how the JMA is doing?
NoSnowATL
Member
Very similar to the CFS. Going through 7 and low 8. It’s going to be a battle.
JMA-CFS - kangaroo vs everyone else. All 3 say cold comes in February.
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If we keep seeing euro trending, GFS trying.... there might be some crazy NAM runs. Someone please correct me, but the 2014 event, (I know different setup) wasn’t that like didn’t show up until 72 hours out?
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It was there but drastically came West inside 72 hours, yes.
ok, ty. 18z GFS is a bit west again early in the run.
GFS closing off the upper low over WC MO hour 78
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS definitely going in the right direction at least w/ our vort max over Missouri.
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Baby steps? Lol
BHS1975
Member
Not bad.
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BHS1975
Member
Euro still better.
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Shaggy
Member
Euro still better.
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Take a blend?
Yes, I do, it's possible it could get brutally cold!
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Webb, others....what do you think the possibility **IF** the euro continues the closed ULL it slows down a bit more?
snowlover91
Member
A blend is still dry for everyone except immediate coastal areas with a possible flurry or two. The 18z GFS is actually worse by the time it makes it to the SE, more positive tilt which won’t cut it.
IMO this one isn’t happening. Coastal sections MIGHT see a few flurries or showers but we have strong agreement from the EPS, GEFS, Euro, GFS, CMC and NAM on how this should play out. I see this being similar in impact to the coastal miss we tracked about this same time last year... that one shifted NW some but not enough. Not saying it can’t happen but imo chances are extremely low.
wow
Member
Big ol' nothing burger that also helps to squash any chance of the Jan 24-25 wave with it lingering back.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Do you mind explaining to me why we want this feature to tilt more negatively?
Rapid cyclogenesis closer to the coast, basically a negative tilt would help that low form closer to the coast and get precip further NW but more important is where that occurs, if it does occur. Offshore native tilt not gonna do any of us any good, for my backyard if it were to do that around Atlanta I'd be in good shape for you would have to be a little bit further South West I'm afraid.
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Its oh so close. This hurts, in a good winter someone gets a foot, this year just sadness
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It's also indicative of a very vigorous s/w, that's why some models are showing some precip with the ull itself
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Ideally, this is how I’d like to see our cold air arrive. But, within 5 days of course.
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Shaggy
Member
Same here, really want to see how consolidated the energy is in the northern plains around 12z Monday
Hopefully what is being modeled is more of a turn back to colder .. 12z euro came in cooler .. now the Gfs came in cooler and GEFS much colder .... trend must continue if we have any hope
Shaggy
Member
The 12z CFS shows that late week system winding up with some wrap around snow. Just to let the one's that don't know, the CFS has a much lower resolution (56km) so it's not going to be as accurate as some of the other models. To add to this, on the 18z GEFS mean, it's still showing that the low would remain in the southern stream. If that deeper cold air wraps in behind the low, we could see snow early as next weekend in the southeast lol. I'm also still watching the last week for this month and into February for a winter storm. Exciting times ahead I'd say!
You can see the 540 trying to dig down north and northwest of the low as the low is down in the Gulf on the GEFS mean. But, as the low tracks along the Eastern coast, the 540 is knocking on the TN state line.
850mb temps from the GEFS mean
You can see the 540 trying to dig down north and northwest of the low as the low is down in the Gulf on the GEFS mean. But, as the low tracks along the Eastern coast, the 540 is knocking on the TN state line.
850mb temps from the GEFS mean
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
That low will not producce snow
baroowoofr
Member
18z Euro:
Cad Wedge NC
Member
You are correct, not for us......Not as long as it is in that spot. Too much down-sloping.
Ummm this looks significantly interesting can we get some more precip type maps and the 18z eps qpf Shield ??
Some of the GEFS members were interesting wrapping it up so quickly the cold air swings in fast enough for NC and SC for some good thumping backside snow ... probably just noise but interesting
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Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Is this a good or bad look for snow
baroowoofr
Member
Unfortunately the weathermodels site lags on the precip type maps for the 6 and 18z Euro (it's still only out to hour 39), but here is the 3 hr total precip map and the 700mb RH:
The reason you aren't seeing more moisture until it digs to the coast and goes neutral/ negative, if that the Gulf is totally cut off.
I suspect if it went beyond 90 hours there might be a more westerly solution than 12z, but hard to say since it looks similar.
@LoganElliott40
depends on where you're at. I think Charlotte needs it to drop in and start to tilt further west.
The reason you aren't seeing more moisture until it digs to the coast and goes neutral/ negative, if that the Gulf is totally cut off.
I suspect if it went beyond 90 hours there might be a more westerly solution than 12z, but hard to say since it looks similar.
@LoganElliott40
depends on where you're at. I think Charlotte needs it to drop in and start to tilt further west.
It looks pretty, but it still needs to dig more and closing off about 4 contours wouldn't hurt either. As is, pretty, but no moisture return.
All indications tell me not to waste my time, but somehow I'm mildly interested. Maybe because I know predicting/forecasting ULLs can be tricky, it's usually never cut and paste.