• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

12z GEFS, 500mb and jet stream winds in 10 days. Jet stream winds west to east, this would mean more of a calm pattern. 500mb, no eastern ridge, weak +PNA, blocking in Alaska (-EPO) this is a colder pattern over the east. If any storm system, it would probably be a southern slider if this is to be correct. I have doubts that there will be a storm system. For now, best bet, cold and dry.
9dbcf96fbed5bf5fa71c5cfd8bb5dbad.jpg
36f6bb03e934d08c1fdbea34a17afc31.jpg


Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
I noticed that too, but at the same time looks like flatter Pac ridge... can't we get the +PNA, -AO, -NAO trifecta
Click to expand...

I wish we could get some arctic blocking but I have no hope for a -AO/-NAO....this will probably all be -EPO/+PNA driven.

I imagine the dispersed EPS has members with different locations of the pac low and how fast that builds. GEFS probably to quick but this looks really good.

GEFS-EPS.gif
 
Would love to see the higher amounts further south on the EPS mean, but this isn't bad and can get better pending no large changes in the overall wx pattern upcoming.
5dd9fd517580d142dbe1b59f9cae94b2.jpg


Sent from my SM-J727U using Tapatalk
 
KyloG said:
That looks cold to me, especially for an ensemble mean. It's been pretty steady around the 20th.

View attachment 30172
Click to expand...

Yes, it looks real good, but per what @metwannabe was referring to, the period 1/19-21 was warmer on this EPS vs the prior one due to more of a warmup in between the two Arctic highs. But afterward (1/23-4), it was colder than the 0Z with the 2nd Arctic high due to higher pressure getting down into the SE.
 
GaWx said:
Yes, it looks real good, but per what @metwannabe was referring to, the period 1/19-21 was warmer on this EPS vs the prior one due to more of a warmup in between the two Arctic highs. But afterward (1/23-4), it was colder than the 0Z with the 2nd Arctic high due to higher pressure getting down into the SE.
Click to expand...

Non blocking pattern we will have to deal with cutters even in -EPO driven pattern. But, majority of members looks BN to me during that time. But yeah, I get it, we've had enough warmth especially with the next 7-10 days.

I know we all know this...the GEFS is probably over doing the cold but I think the blend of the patterns of the GEPS/EPS/GEFS looks pretty good.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-9521600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-9521600.png
 
pcbjr said:
This is not meant to be negative in any way ... parts of the SE are forecasted to be cold, but that is not a present tense or any sort of guaranteed thing ... it is indeed nice to see a model show what the 18z suggests, and some consistent later runs by it and other models would lend credence, but until it happens, please Folks, enjoy the movie, but remember that it's only a movie (for now) ...
Click to expand...
Agreed, I especially don’t trust the gfs when it shows cold like this since it’s new upgrade. I’m one of the more optimistic posters when it comes to winter weather and think posts of winter cancel in early January are just silly. That said I feel the same when the models are showing bone crushing cold in what has been a very warm start to winter. I am very happy to see changes towards cold but I’m not getting overly excited yet because after all we live in the south and most in here from the Deep South. It is a Lot more likely to have 2-3 cruddy winters then it is to have 2-3 good ones in a row. Hopefully we are on our way to a great 2nd half comeback!!!
 
John1122 said:
Same event I'm talking about I'm sure. Here in Tennessee it turned cold on Christmas day December 2017 and stayed cold to very cold into January. It was cold and dry for the first 8 days of the month highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. We had lows of 1, 0 and 3 nights below 0 in that time frame. We had a trace of snow in the 15 day period from December 25th to Jan 8th. 14 of the 15 days
saw 0.00 precip.

If finally got to 33 on January 9th and to add insult to injury, it rained.
Click to expand...
Up here on the highland rim we got two 3 plus inch snows in less then a week. The elevation up here helps so much as I always talk about. It’s the reason I’m much more optimistic then most other middle Tennessee posters who live near the city of Nashville.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top