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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Stormdoc

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for anyone tracking the storm in the 160-180 range this is what we need to happen.
Currently our western ridge is just too far east. That forces our storm and trough to be too far east as well and ends up OTS.

Red is obviously the current euro solution. But we need more of a blue solution too occur. Then the timing of the negative tilt will determine more. But we HAVE to see this whole pattern come west. We have plenty of time and rule number 1 is never be in the bullseye this far out.

You can see we really are close to something special. Give it a few more days and see what we have by Thursday.
View attachment 30795
Good visual there. Euro also moves the trough east too rapidly, so we need the trough to be both west and/or slower which would tilt the trough more negative.
 

packfan98

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It's pretty amazing how close the ensemble means are with the 500mb setup and cold temperatures in the longer range. They pretty much have the SE going below average with the temperatures and staying that way through the end of the run, with even colder anomalies at the end of the period. Trying to determine the outcome of of any winter weather threats right now is not advisable. The models are not going to be able to get the northern stream energy correct. If you look at the operational 500mb maps, they are all over the place.

The moral of the story is:

-The temperatures are going below normal for the 6-16 day period, with all indications this will continue into at least the following week.
-The moisture feed looks to continue even though it may be shunted very far south for a period if current modeling is correct (giving the Deep South a chance at winter weather), but it's been known to correct north as the lead time closes in.
-The 500mb pattern for winter weather looks to improve and possibly become stable for a considerable period of time, even going into February.
-This doesn't appear to be a transitory 4-5 day window of opportunity. There are definitely a couple of chances for winter weather in the SE over the next 16 days, but this doesn't appear to be the end of the opportunities. At least early February could offer more chances. Par for the course has been precip chances every 5 days or so. Take it one system at a time.

Winter is coming, and could stay a while. It won't snow in everyone's back yard, but this kind of look is what we've been wanting and waiting for. We didn't get it last winter. Enjoy the journey!
 

Ilovesnow28

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Snippet from James Spank this morning....
NEXT WEEK: The weather will be considerably colder thanks to a pattern change. Monday and Tuesday will be sunny and cold with highs only in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s… some of the normally colder spots over North Alabama could easily drop into the teens. For now most of the week looks dry; some could be a few showers toward the end of the week.
ecmwf-operational-KBHM-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-8960000-768x381.png
 

ForsythSnow

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Snippet from James Spank this morning....
NEXT WEEK: The weather will be considerably colder thanks to a pattern change. Monday and Tuesday will be sunny and cold with highs only in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s… some of the normally colder spots over North Alabama could easily drop into the teens. For now most of the week looks dry; some could be a few showers toward the end of the week.
View attachment 30805
Talk about a complete 180. I checked my area and it seems on the 21st we stay below 30 all day from what I can tell.
 

SnowNiner

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Next week we leave the shutout pattern. However if I'm looking at the models and hoping/wishing I'm really liking what Kylo posted in regard to the CFS. The long range GEFS and GEPS seem to agree with that general thought toward the very end of January. What looks so good to me is the TPV and the coldest air on the planet looks to migrate to our side of the globe, toward SE Canada. With a western ridge, that cold spills right in to the eastern US.

Just hope it verifies cause it's way out there. Just keep waiting I guess.


1579011512918.png
 

KyloG

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Looks like the GEFS is going to kick the EPS butt in the MJO forecast. Moved to higher amp ph7 and collapse into COD. Looking at the EPS chi200 from the 0z run it looks like it wants to start something back up in ph6-7...albeit weakly. I saw Mike V's tweet that SnowNiner posted in the Whamby thread about the MJO collapse, which GEFS/EPS agree on. What the EPS is showing below looks pretty good to me, better than a high amp drag race around 8-1-2 back to our beloved warm phases.

Edit: I am definitely a noob when it comes to the MJO...hopefully Webber/GaWx/Jon pipe in if they disagree.


ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2020011400_MEAN.png
 

SnowNiner

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Hmm, If I'm being honest the ensemble means are still not very impressive to me. Way too many blank members. If I had to guess, the closer we get to the time the TPV drifts back to our side of the globe the end of the month, the higher the mean snow numbers will go up. Probably next week.
 

ForsythSnow

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Something like that is definitely headed for glory. With the energy coming down in the right place as shown, it would have the potential to phase perfectly and produce a major storm.
Yeah. Both pieces were already starting to interact over north central TX..still looked a little squished but this is what needs to happen to take the late bloomer solution off the table 730C4092-1172-4B3D-8742-F2E79192ED1B.gif
 
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This setup reminds me of January 2011. Arctic high comes down from Canada, sets up over the Ohio Valley which provides the cold air source. This also creates a boundary in the northern gulf which pops a weak low pressure.

Ofc, this high was only a 1030-1032 high.



I’d be all in for a repeat of that one. Like you said though that was a weak wave, which is ideal for those in the deeper parts of the south, and I haven’t seen a weak wave come through here in 3 months. They’re all juiced up
 

Ilovesnow28

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This setup reminds me of January 2011. Arctic high comes down from Canada, sets up over the Ohio Valley which provides the cold air source. This also creates a boundary in the northern gulf which pops a weak low pressure.

Ofc, this high was only a 1030-1032 high.



I wonder does anybody have the snow maps from that storm
 
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I wonder does anybody have the snow maps from that storm
There are snow amounts for invidivual states(widespread amounts of 4-10 inches occured in Northern GA).

Here's a satellite view of the areas that had snowcover on January 11th, 2011.



I'm not saying this storm will be exactly like that one...it just reminds me of this storm.
 
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