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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Too many folks worried about the snow mean expecting it to hold . We are still a good ways out .......


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As long as it’s showing snow output you know the pattern for said time frame is likely conducive of frozen precipitation. That’s about all they’re good for as far as I’m concerned
 
Too many folks worried about the snow mean expecting it to hold . We are still a good ways out .......


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Agree completely! Let's just figure out if we are actually going to verify this pattern flip to cold before even giving more than a thought on Winter weather.
 
If the forecast is right ( and it is cause it is for a torch ) my overnight low Sat night will be 15 warmer than my average high for that date and a staggering +33 above the average low.....in fact for the next week the NWS does not forecast a single period where the temp is lower than my average daily high for this week.....so if that is right MBY will spend a entire week without ever getting colder than what the average HIGH is for this time of year. However if the payoff is 2-4 weeks of legit winter with snow I say bring it.

Somewhat similarly but not as extreme, ATL is not forecasted for its lows to get below the average highs for the next 6 or so days with an average anomaly near +20 for the 6 days averaged out! This would place Jan 1-15 at a super torch of +11! And then 1/16-19 are expected to still be AN per model consensus and still leave ATL at about +10 for 1/1-19. Absent an historic cold snap late month, Jan will end up AN by at least several degrees. Maxar has them ending up at a whopping +8 (~51.3) as of now because they don't see cold making it down into the SE until at least the last few days of the month due to a +AO/+NAO/strong MJO phase 7 combo before then though they acknowledge the risk of a weaker MJO like the Euro bringing cold in earlier. They are taking a huge risk in fading the colder models in the SE but they realize there are cold biases that can be faded.
 
As long as it’s showing snow output you know the pattern for said time frame is likely conducive of frozen precipitation. That’s about all they’re good for as far as I’m concerned
I learned the hard way last year not to take the ensembles at face value. If I had half the snow they modeled last year it would have been a historic season.
 
Can't worry about every run. Careless if it shows snow yet or not. Temps is as always the key and models have been every where this year. Next week was supposed to be cold now its next weekend. Still a ways out to believe either way or be concerned if snow or not. Pattern change is key and looks like models are on it so far
 
Unless there's consistent convergence across virtually all model/ensemble suites around a storm 5-7 days out, then it's a low probability event and there shouldn't be be a lot of angst around pretty snow maps that pop up and go away. Anything beyond D7 is complete speculation, in terms of specific storm details.

Overall, the ensemble pattern still looks good and supports winter returning. It's good that some of the models are actually showing winter weather. That's the first order of business. So, mission accomplished there.

As the pattern begins to change, that should pick up, and we should see bona fide individual threats emerge that have some consistency inside of the 5-7 day mark. That's the second item on the list, and right now, it carries a status of Pending.

After that, storm detail analysis can begin. Right now, that's in the queue. As long as the pattern change is not a mirage or one-hopper to the second baseman, we'll get there. Then we'll see what we've got. Sometimes we get a base hit. Sometimes we hit a tater.

ETA:

12z GEFS on 1/7, valid 12z 1/23. Crap as far as the eye could see 3 days ago:

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12z GEFS today, valid 12z 1/23. Little bit of a difference:

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And 384 GEFS today:

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Given where we were 3 days ago, I'll take it.
 
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Most of this is within the 10-15 day time frame, that period is looking amazing no doubt.... but it's 10+ days out and there will no doubt be some huge swings. But post, share, discuss all you want, heck I don't care if you get all chill running down your leg over it, not my place to tell you how to react, just sit back and enjoy the roller coaster ride

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Mean is the highest I’ve seen the entire winter! Member 6 Lol.
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Wow, that's an impressive ensemble mean. GEFS seems to be on board with the -EPO pattern change and so far it doesn't look like it dries up when the Alaskan ridge establishes. Still a good ways out, but very nice to see at least a colder change up ahead.
 
Well this should produce our thunder... that then means in 10 days we see snow .. let’s see how it verifies

Not sure if you're serious, but according to Brad Panovich, that old wive's tale has been accurate (I'm going off memory) like 1 out of 8 times in the past decade. So, very little correlation, if any.
 
Brief warm-up after D10 on the eps, that wasn't there yesterday (I don't think) but looks like pattern reload after that.... delayed but not denied.
 
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