Unless there's consistent convergence across virtually all model/ensemble suites around a storm 5-7 days out, then it's a low probability event and there shouldn't be be a lot of angst around pretty snow maps that pop up and go away. Anything beyond D7 is complete speculation, in terms of specific storm details.
Overall, the ensemble pattern still looks good and supports winter returning. It's good that some of the models are actually showing winter weather. That's the first order of business. So, mission accomplished there.
As the pattern begins to change, that should pick up, and we should see bona fide individual threats emerge that have some consistency inside of the 5-7 day mark. That's the second item on the list, and right now, it carries a status of Pending.
After that, storm detail analysis can begin. Right now, that's in the queue. As long as the pattern change is not a mirage or one-hopper to the second baseman, we'll get there. Then we'll see what we've got. Sometimes we get a base hit. Sometimes we hit a tater.
ETA:
12z GEFS on 1/7, valid 12z 1/23. Crap as far as the eye could see 3 days ago:
12z GEFS today, valid 12z 1/23. Little bit of a difference:
And 384 GEFS today:
Given where we were 3 days ago, I'll take it.