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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, EPS definitely seems to be honking the horn on this coastal possibility. I think 5 days is plenty of time for this to inch back to our area but I'm still getting flashbacks to the last time we were rooting for a coastal to come back NW and it didn't.

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Yeap this has got coastal scrapper written all over it. The last one we had my folks in Cape Carteret got a few inches.


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Webberweather53 said:
There’s more than enough time and wiggle room for the US 1 and 95 corridors to score the middle of next week. Worth reminding everyone, even though every model shows this as a coast only threat, this is still 5 days out & this is the kind of setup that can turn favorably or unfavorably in a heartbeat and quite wildly at that.
I’d definitely keep an eye on this in areas like RDU, Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc
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I’d even keep an eye on this in the Columbia to Augusta to Macon corridor based on how much SW the EPS trended since 12Z yesterday. I mean even further west can’t be ruled out. On the same token, there could conceivably even be too much of a good thing and some of or even most of the coastal areas POSSIBLY end up warmer than 0C at 850 mb (I.e., mainly rain instead of snow). Still lots of possibilities with this one!
 
Jon said:
Same here, note I just said Jan. Still a believer that we get a snowy pattern at some point. I don’t cancel winter until it’s mid March and nothing looks good in the 10-15 day. Lol


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Well, I had snow in Elizabeth City on March 12, 2018. That’s the last time we had any measurable snow here (with the exception of the trace amount the November 12, 2019).
 
That's a robust wave. It's just too positive tilted and too progressive. Closing off sooner would help, as was said earlier. Would be so helpful if the ridge axis wasn't running from Dallas through Bismark.
 
I don't know if you all remember, but do you all remember how lost the GFS was during the Jan 3rd 2018 event? I mean we basically quit even paying attention to it. The Euro basically led the way. And the GFS didn't really correct it self until like 24 to 36 hours out.
 
A rare coastal Wintry treat still looks like a real possibility as we get closer. I've been keeping my eye on this for a while now, and still feel comfortable with moisture likely making it. The main question I still have is the cold air.
 
Shawn said:
A rare coastal Wintry treat still looks like a real possibility as we get closer. I've been keeping my eye on this for a while now, and still feel comfortable with moisture likely making it. The main question I still have is the cold air.
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What do you mean? For the most part the south East has already been inundated with lots of cold air more than we usually would have with any storm
 
If I remember correctly the coastal last year was brought back by the models from much further offshore. It corrected west and towards the end it corrected back east for an epic fish storm. Let’s see if this one corrects back eastward closer to verification as well. I would think a scenario such as this is how the OBX gets their best snowstorms though
 
From Tim Buckley (speaking of GSO).

“Looking at the data, the last time we had back to back Januarys without measurable snow was 1992/1993 - almost 30 years ago.”

not surprising that we are on par now with the early 90s. If it snows here before the end of January I will be shocked.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If I remember correctly the coastal last year was brought back by the models from much further offshore. It corrected west and towards the end it corrected back east for an epic fish storm. Let’s see if this one corrects back eastward closer to verification as well. I would think a scenario such as this is how the OBX gets their best snowstorms though
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This is what I remember as well. Little by little, it ticks west, and then the last 48 hours or so starts ticking east. This is the kind of setup for that to happen. That said, how many storms have we seen make significant NW "shifts" vs. E or SE? The percentage has to be 70% or better, I'd think. Hopefully, this one pulls that stunt too.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is what I remember as well. Little by little, it ticks west, and then the last 48 hours or so starts ticking east. This is the kind of setup for that to happen. That said, how many storms have we seen make significant NW "shifts" vs. E or SE? The percentage has to be 70% or better, I'd think. Hopefully, this one pulls that stunt too.
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My coastal rule is that they are immune to the NW shift to a degree. Especially in a progressive pattern such as this. But what do I know? Im just a guy who likes snow way too much
 
FYI from ILM AFD. "As mid to upper trough digs down and swings across the
Carolinas Mon night, would not be surprised to see some passing
clouds with maybe a flurry or two around. The ECMWF is more
aggressive with a cutoff low developing as it shifts off the
coast Tues into Wed with pcp close enough to possibly affect the
coast or nearby coastal waters. For now will keep with the dry
and chilly air mass and no pcp through mid week. Air mass will
begin to modify Wed night into Thurs as ridge builds over the
Southeast and high shifts slowly eastward."
 
GaWx said:
Further to @KyloG post of EPS precip trend, check out the continuing SW trend of 500 mb hts since 12Z run (I wish I knew how to animate this): focus on the 2nd green line (552 dm) in GA, which moves from just SW of the SC border near Augusta on the 12Z run to the AL border south of Columbus on the 6Z run or a whopping 150 miles SW or 50 miles per run...so, this is still trending SW markedly.....this could even trend so much SW that it could conceivably even end up being too warm at game time for near the coast at least:

12Z:
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18Z:
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0Z:
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6Z:
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Keep coming back SW.
 
GaWx said:
Further to @KyloG post of EPS precip trend, check out the continuing SW trend of 500 mb hts since 12Z run (I wish I knew how to animate this): focus on the 2nd green line (552 dm) in GA, which moves from just SW of the SC border near Augusta on the 12Z run to the AL border south of Columbus on the 6Z run or a whopping 150 miles SW or 50 miles per run...so, this is still trending SW markedly.....this could even trend so much SW that it could conceivably even end up being too warm at game time for near the coast at least:

12Z:
View attachment 31300


18Z:
View attachment 31301


0Z:
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6Z:
View attachment 31303
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To animate images like these just google search “gif maker”, one of the top links should give you what you want
 
Rain Cold said:
This is what I remember as well. Little by little, it ticks west, and then the last 48 hours or so starts ticking east. This is the kind of setup for that to happen. That said, how many storms have we seen make significant NW "shifts" vs. E or SE? The percentage has to be 70% or better, I'd think. Hopefully, this one pulls that stunt too.
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My memory this far back is iffy but I remember in 1989 watching TWC blue screen local forecast and them calling for flurries or light snow with no accumulation. Of course it ended up tracking closer and we got crushed. Likewise in 2003 Cantore was in Raleigh with flurries as we got a foot + after an eastward shift at the last minute.
 
Webberweather53 said:
To animate images like these just google search “gif maker”, one of the top links should give you what you want
Click to expand...

Just as an example, here's the last 2 runs of the ECMWF z500 vort valid this Tuesday.

Using the gif maker from this site:
https://gifmaker.me/

The 6z ECMWF is definitely an improvement over the 0z with our wave over St Louis digging deeper into the eastern flank of the ridge over the Rockies and being considerably stronger. The northern stream waves near the Hudson Bay are also favorable for this s/w to dig, amplify, and cut-off more later in the forecast which favors a deeper coastal low & precipitation further west in the Carolinas.

Webp.net-gifmaker (4).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
To animate images like these just google search “gif maker”, one of the top links should give you what you want
Click to expand...

Thanks to Webb, I just created my first animated GIF showing those 4 maps I previously posted. Note the 150 mile SW trend of the darker green line on the last 4 EPS (50 miles per run) as it moved from just SW of Augusta (near SC border) to south of Columbus (AL border):

011720CoastThreatEPStrend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just as an example, here's the last 2 runs of the ECMWF z500 vort valid this Tuesday.

Using the gif maker from this site:
https://gifmaker.me/

The 6z ECMWF is definitely an improvement over the 0z with our wave over St Louis digging deeper into the eastern flank of the ridge over the Rockies and being considerably stronger. The northern stream waves near the Hudson Bay are also favorable for this s/w to dig, amplify, and cut-off more later in the forecast which favors a deeper coastal low & precipitation further west in the Carolinas.

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If*** that can dig further SW I wouldn’t be surprised if some inland areas of GA,SC, and NC could see QPF. Last nights euro has some pretty good moisture @H7, but dry in other levels.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Any hope we do a loop into 6 then proceed into 7 and 8? Or will it just beat us down into 4 or 5?
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I honestly don't think there's any way to answer this question. My guess is it will do a low amp loop into 5/6/7 and then probably get into 8. No evidence to support that other than it seems to want to do that the last year or two late in the season.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What do you mean? For the most part the south East has already been inundated with lots of cold air more than we usually would have with any storm
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Cold air situated on the coast with a potential system not far offshore tend to not work out. Right now, I notice many are watching the moisture to come further inland, but the closer that moisture gets, the more chances that temperatures may not work out for the coast with it.

I'm not focused on inland areas at all for now.
 
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