If you take the nhem view of 500mb heights on tidbits and loop the entire run of the gefs and geps you can see a lot of fun stuff happening. The main area of interest to me is in east asia to the western north America coast. Watch how initially the okhotsk low tries to get going and force a taller Pacific ridge, that construct gets interfered with but the fracturing ridge eventually leads to smog troughing to beat the SE ridge back, it also ruins the stability of the entire Pacific pattern. Now as you progress out toward d5 we do it again, okhotsk low, ridge into AK. This time as the trough drops into the PNW the high has been shoved far enough north the PNW trough splits with part retrograding under the ridge and part progressing into the US. After that the okhotsk low extends into the aleutians big ridge goes into AK, you start to impinge on the tpv.
There are going to be a lot of iterations of this development over the next 5 days especially on the operational models since its not exactly a clean evolution. Once we get the 2nd surge of ridging into AK we will probably see less wild swings and have a better idea of what's coming up.
Now if you want to really hypothesize this pattern could go full bore freeze for the central and eastern us. It could also develop and be under cut and we lose the AK ridge or we start getting the center of the AK ridge too far north and energy starts retrograding under it and you have the ugly -pna again.
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