Our Miller a paste bomb from the other day is now an Ottawa Canada gutter runner. Soaking rain into southern Ontario
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
ajr
Member
There's a pretty good signal for a costal around the 300 hr mark -- modeled temps are sketchy, but could be worse.
A little more digging on the gefs with the longwave trof, can tell by the 552/546 dm shade, I’m pretty sure more separation of that big cold vortex in Canada helps, but there was a few members with light snow, barely tho, but it was a step in the right direction
CMC/GFS is slowly improving aswell, more digging, getting into a range where big changes are less likely 
I also think the euro is possibly showing the sfc low OTS too much. I would think that it should be closer to the coast near the upper energy.
Honestly “double barrel” low pressures would be possible if it was cut off like this at H5, especially if it slows down a little bit
EPS looks better ? actually has a cutoff now, I bet the snow mean is higher 
UK has been improving 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nice to see we are headed in the right direction with this storm next week, still 5 days left for favorable adjustments to continue. There’s more than enough time for this to come much further inland into the coastal plain and even piedmont of the SE US. Definitely want to see this upper trough tick stronger and tilt negative sooner for more of us to get into the game
Winter Weather Advisories out for Wilkes-Surry. Doubt much of anything lol.
Six Mile Wx
Member
If the TPV gets coupled to SPV then all of our cold may be headed towards Russia
Downeastnc
Member
Baby steps...….this setup is close to perfect for a central/eastern hit if we can tease this thing back west 100 miles or so moving more NNE...….good solid cold air in place, heck even .30-.40" of QPF would be enough for a solid 3-6" thump.....this is one of the few times me being on the eastern side of Pitt Co is a good thing.
GFS also ticked west a little more. My biggest concern for this to trend further west to our favor is that kicker to the west that is so close behind. If this flow was not so darn progressive I would be very excited right now. Someone can tell me if I am off base with that assessment. No doubt coastal cyclogenesis here is going to happen, but how far west can it go?
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Anyone have the euro EPS for 240-360 hr range ?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I don't, but the day 10 EURO doesn't offer much hope of wintry weather--no cold to speak of anywhere near the lower 48, much less the SE.
Keep hoping we see some positive changes but this ain’t it. Right over the pole with low heights over Alaska. It’s not a super torch so we got that...seasonal, especially with the rain.
It’s a beaut Clark.
It’s a beaut Clark.
Jon
Member
Yeah. I’ve thrown in the towel for Jan for my area. You can’t ignore the trends here...it’s amazing what 2 days can do. The boards were exploding with excitement, 3 GFS snows in a row, Euro EPS starting to pick up on the threat and BOOM. Gone.
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Shaggy
Member
Any other time a NW trend would definitely happen but that kicker like you said is just not our friend. Where I defer to the smarter people on the board is how much that kicker has to change to bring this back west. Is it a slowdown of 12 hours that's the difference? Little changes can go a long way with this system IMO.
Make this neutral/negative over Atlanta. The idea of having a 2 contour closed low pass to our west then south and getting nothing but a few clouds makes me want to punch puppies.
Six Mile Wx
Member
GEFS stratospheric polar vortex. We’re gonna need to get this back on our side if the SPV and TPV are coupled.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Triplets
Six Mile Wx
Member
TPV looks to come back to our side, but hopefully with a different orientation than this
The 384 GEFS has had the PV in or near that spot for days and days and days. It ends up not being there at verification. I posted about that yesterday morning. It's some sort of PV bias.
Yeah, there are some flat jet out front issues too. We will see, all we really need to do is put more energy into the cut off and get it to separate from the parent trough in the NE once that happens all bets are off.
Seems like the GEFS wants to trend toward climo post D10
Jon
Member
Same here, note I just said Jan. Still a believer that we get a snowy pattern at some point. I don’t cancel winter until it’s mid March and nothing looks good in the 10-15 day. Lol
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i'd be cautiously optimistic if i was on the sc/nc coast, eps trends are what you want to see this far out. wont take much to have a nice event. if i was still living in chs i'd be excited.
This is going to be brutal watching the radar Tuesday night and Wednesday... hope the coastal crew scores though.
Further to @KyloG post of EPS precip trend, check out the continuing SW trend of 500 mb hts since 12Z run (I wish I knew how to animate this): focus on the 2nd green line (552 dm) in GA, which moves from just SW of the SC border near Augusta on the 12Z run to the AL border south of Columbus on the 6Z run or a whopping 150 miles SW or 50 miles per run...so, this is still trending SW markedly.....this could even trend so much SW that it could conceivably even end up being too warm at game time for near the coast at least:
12Z:
18Z:
0Z:
6Z:
12Z:
18Z:
0Z:
6Z:
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Shaggy
Member
Hoping as we get closer the models will beef up the precip shield. Theres little things that give me hope but I would like to see that sharo precip gradient expand some to the west.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There’s more than enough time and wiggle room for the US 1 and 95 corridors to score the middle of next week. Worth reminding everyone, even though every model shows this as a coast only threat, this is still 5 days out & this is the kind of setup that can turn favorably or unfavorably in a heartbeat and quite wildly at that.
I’d definitely keep an eye on this in areas like RDU, Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc
I’d definitely keep an eye on this in areas like RDU, Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc
How about the far eastern Midlands to Florence, SC area? Do you think those areas stand a chance at seeing snow? I know it's way too early to tell, but I'm definitely interested.
Yeah, EPS definitely seems to be honking the horn on this coastal possibility. I think 5 days is plenty of time for this to inch back to our area but I'm still getting flashbacks to the last time we were rooting for a coastal to come back NW and it didn't.
