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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

KyloG

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Welp, not sure I have ever started a thread as I don’t have the best luck. But, we are staring down the worst possible pattern to start January and figured it can’t get any worse.

I am hoping this is Dec ph 6 and we transition to a January ph6 pattern as that is slightly better.

0695D674-DBDC-4B2E-B10E-C3E2E6F4AF45.png 41FAE4B5-541F-42BC-8856-EE9DF9B16F77.png B2A84F73-62D5-4B90-BCEE-DFFD79B171BE.png
 

Webberweather53

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Welp, not sure I have ever started a thread as I don’t have the best luck. But, we are staring down the worst possible pattern to start January and figured it can’t get any worse.

I am hoping this is Dec ph 6 and we transition to a January ph6 pattern as that is slightly better.

View attachment 28840View attachment 28841View attachment 28842
You can clearly see the pattern is doing its best rendition of the phase 6 +ENSO composite, with the major, undeniable wrinkle being the TPV over Alaska that’s decided to screw everything up. In its absence, we’d probably see a -EPO attempting to go up in early Jan
 

KyloG

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You can clearly see the pattern is doing its best rendition of the phase 6 +ENSO composite, with the major, undeniable wrinkle being the TPV over Alaska that’s decided to screw everything up. In its absence, we’d probably see a -EPO attempting to go up in early Jan
Thinking that is just bad luck...way the ball bounces sometimes?
 

Rain Cold

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Well, as you said, it's about as bad as it gets in terms of the progression over the last several days. Hopefully, we're at or close to peak badness. Hard to get a worse alignment of indexes, although it's possible, I guess.

Indexes.jpg

Indexes 2.jpg
 

metwannabe

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I think that PV is going to rotate through and to the north of Greenland before giving us sloppy seconds the third week in January..and even then the sun angle is similar to that of Memorial Day weekend
I can't tell is this a legit post or same 'ol shtick post?
 

KyloG

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Positive trends with building a legit PDO. Clearly see trend to classic horseshoe sst's. Will be interesting to see what the Dec PDO index comes in at.

PDO-trends.gif


As we proceed later into winter the +PDO correlation is stronger with SE trough.

PDO-correlation.gif
 

Myfrotho704_

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Positive trends with building a legit PDO. Clearly see trend to classic horseshoe sst's. Will be interesting to see what the Dec PDO index comes in at.

View attachment 28877


As we proceed later into winter the +PDO correlation is stronger with SE trough.

View attachment 28878
Certainly doesn’t hurt the chances of a -EPO in the future, that type of +PDO reminds me of 2014-2015 (I think that’s the correct year(s))
 
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pcbjr

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Not even gonna post the pics (don't wanna ruin any little bit of Holiday cheer) ... but CPC has no thoughts of warming Alaska ...
 
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