Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

[KyloG]

Welp, not sure I have ever started a thread as I don’t have the best luck. But, we are staring down the worst possible pattern to start January and figured it can’t get any worse.

I am hoping this is Dec ph 6 and we transition to a January ph6 pattern as that is slightly better.

 

[Webberweather53]

Welp, not sure I have ever started a thread as I don’t have the best luck. But, we are staring down the worst possible pattern to start January and figured it can’t get any worse.

I am hoping this is Dec ph 6 and we transition to a January ph6 pattern as that is slightly better.

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You can clearly see the pattern is doing its best rendition of the phase 6 +ENSO composite, with the major, undeniable wrinkle being the TPV over Alaska that’s decided to screw everything up. In its absence, we’d probably see a -EPO attempting to go up in early Jan

 

[KyloG]

You can clearly see the pattern is doing its best rendition of the phase 6 +ENSO composite, with the major, undeniable wrinkle being the TPV over Alaska that’s decided to screw everything up. In its absence, we’d probably see a -EPO attempting to go up in early Jan

Thinking that is just bad luck...way the ball bounces sometimes?

 

[KyloG]

Latest CFS monthly. Would be welcome site. Yeah, cold is centered central/west but would give chances.

 

[Rain Cold]

Well, as you said, it's about as bad as it gets in terms of the progression over the last several days. Hopefully, we're at or close to peak badness. Hard to get a worse alignment of indexes, although it's possible, I guess.

 

[Webberweather53]

Thinking that is just bad luck...way the ball bounces sometimes?

Yes in many ways the variation of this TPV is random because it’s difficult to observe and constrain in NWP models

 

[Webberweather53]

Luckily we have an active southern stream this winter to carve thru the SE US ridge or things would be a lot worse in the longer range

 

[Webberweather53]

The one thing we’ve had going for Jan and Feb since 2012-13 (-EPO) is clearly abandoning us at least for the first week or so of January. The weenie side of me is truly frustrated

 

[Stormdoc]

Well at least the GFS is looking better. Maybe a start.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 28848
Well at least the GFS is looking better. Maybe a start.

ENC gets mauled by the 12z GFS..big fantasy coastal..pattern is ripening ?

 

[BHS1975]

ENC gets mauled by the 12z GFS..big fantasy coastal..pattern is ripening

NW trend baby


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[KyloG]

It’s a start

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s a start

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I think that PV is going to rotate through and to the north of Greenland before giving us sloppy seconds the third week in January..and even then the sun angle is similar to that of Memorial Day weekend

 

[Tarheel1]

Winters back on!

 

[RBR71]

I think that PV is going to rotate through and to the north of Greenland before giving us sloppy seconds the third week in January..and even then the sun angle is similar to that of Memorial Day weekend

I can't tell is this a legit post or same 'ol shtick post?

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS looks a lot better. Probably a blip, but you can't win 'em all if you don't win the first one.

 

[RBR71]

GFS looks a lot better. Probably a blip, but you can't win 'em all if you don't win the first one.

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Yeah probably a blip...

 

[RBR71]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

The king was trying..

 

[deltadog03]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

I was going to post that would be a setup that might really do something as well. Northern branch pushing the front through and a high building back in, with all that energy over the SW kicking east.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Some said wait for the Euro and the Euro has spoken. Maybe this one won't die by 0Z.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This could be our only shot this winter. Need a couple favorable bounces but I don’t super hate it

 

[pcbjr]

This could be our only shot this winter.

Hardly ... but then, I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night ...

 

[tennessee storm]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

It’s always day 10 or beyond

 

[KyloG]

A positive...just takes a couple of weeks, hopefully to get the PV away from Alaska to Baffin Bay.

 

[KyloG]

Positive trends with building a legit PDO. Clearly see trend to classic horseshoe sst's. Will be interesting to see what the Dec PDO index comes in at.




As we proceed later into winter the +PDO correlation is stronger with SE trough.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Positive trends with building a legit PDO. Clearly see trend to classic horseshoe sst's. Will be interesting to see what the Dec PDO index comes in at.

View attachment 28877


As we proceed later into winter the +PDO correlation is stronger with SE trough.

View attachment 28878

Certainly doesn’t hurt the chances of a -EPO in the future, that type of +PDO reminds me of 2014-2015 (I think that’s the correct year(s))

 

[KyloG]

If the Euro went beyond d10 it would be prepare for glory time....

For fun..control run is similar to GFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For fun..control run is similar to GFS.

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Hmm.. make that trough go negative tilt quicker or speed up that SW in the Southwest with a trough in the east that slows down than things get real interesting

 

[pcbjr]

Not even gonna post the pics (don't wanna ruin any little bit of Holiday cheer) ... but CPC has no thoughts of warming Alaska ...

 

[whatalife]

...

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

...

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Euro warm bias caveat at play here?

 

[Rain Cold]

Euro warm bias caveat at play here?

Not sure, but that is one ugly, ugly animation. Just hard to find anything to really like about that. Have to hope it's wrong.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

...

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Can you post the forecast gif of what the Euro weeklies we’re showing for this time last month?

 

[whatalife]

Can you post the forecast gif of what the Euro weeklies we’re showing for this time last month?

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[cd2play]

Not sure, but that is one ugly, ugly animation. Just hard to find anything to really like about that. Have to hope it's wrong.

I was hoping someone would come on here and say they accidentally pulled the 2011-12 animation.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

I was hoping someone would come on here and say they accidentally pulled the 2011-12 animation.

Ive heard several people on the other board mention the 11-12 winter. I wouldnt mind a repeat. At least no one would get their hopes up. I have fond memories of that winter.

 

[SD]

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This looks about right as we roll into feb, unless we get a -nao. Strangely even in the face of less than ideal models I'm concerned about January but not on the ledge like some

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[whatalife]

This looks about right as we roll into feb, unless we get a -nao. Strangely even in the face of less than ideal models I'm concerned about January but not on the ledge like some

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Yeah. I still think January averages out near normal with a threat or two as we come to the end of January.


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[Arcc]

I repeat, the 2018-2019 Winter broke people.