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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
You see where that 540 is?
Appreciate it, but it's probably a beach day ...
The GFS has reached an all time low
low pressure?
Low scores, crazy fantasy storms, insane troughs, insane ULLs in the southwest that never move, we have a terrible weather model, GFS before the new one was at least a little better
pcbjr
Member
i wish I could find Webb's post from around this time last year (maybe a week ot two earlier) when the GFS Happy Hour did the same thing ... classic Webb
The pattern progression is not a disaster on the 18z GFS. Looks a million times better than the Weeklies. I'd probably rate them both equally as bad.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I do believe that we had the GFS (this version even) give you fantasy snow at some point in December last year.
But anyway...the GFS...what a silly model. It's shown the possibility of a weather system happening around this time period but there's about no telling what it actually does. It's always had fantasy storms, but idk that it's ever been as terrible as this.
I would imagine in order for it to snow down at phils ,it would have to look something like this kind of set up?
pcbjr
Member
not necessarily
among others, look at 1899 and 1989 (unfortunately, until Wiki is back up, I can't point you to 1899 resources)
That's going to change, guarantee!
The GFS can be good at finding the storm signal time windows, but you're right, there's no telling what it does at this point. We've all seen this behavior many times from the GFS model. The models will get a better handle for that time window early next week. In the mean time, expect wild changing model runs.
A couple things to think about that I’ve noticed.. 1. When was the last time the euro weeklies were right .. and the euro weeklies if I do recall are always warmer and in some cases way warmer than what ends up happening. 2. It honestly looks like the euro and Gfs and even the Canadian at times want to try and do something with that system the wacky 18z Gfs shows .. it could be a legit signal of something we just don’t know details cause of volatile pattern
Exactly! Weeklies have be absolutely horrible for months. But saying that they will probably be close with the latest run!
Legit wintry pattern for the southeast is certainly delayed. Does that mean we can’t thread the needle on something in the meantime? Absolutely not
The more I look at the Euro/EPS toward the end of the run, the more interesting it appears. GEFS is also very interesting at H5.
Yeah I said it on a weird Twitter thread, but if you somehow get a transient Canada vortex/bombing low near SE Canada and a southern wave/cut off wave just in time, things can happen, but those setups are the definition of threading the needle
And I don’t even wanna walk into the “the upper level low will make its own cold air” department
John1122
Member
If the weeklies start warm they tend to stay warm for their entire run. If they start cold they sometimes flip to warm too fast. GFS definitely has a bias towards cold. Euro towards warm in the east. All the models tend to have false starts flipping a pattern. They ended the November cold way earlier than it verified ending and have been doing the same with the December warmth. You can usually add 10 days to any pattern shift that starts showing up in the day 14-16 range.
Just to pick up some of the broken hearts. As I said earlier I really like where the Euro is headed. Even though it is more or less Pacific air, it is seeded by very cold air over Alaska. The Euro and to a lesser extent the EPS shows this. To be honest, I feel this pattern will definitely be better suited for western portions. That said the big block that formed over the pole two weeks ago, formed just like the one north of AK forms on the Euro. If we can get a repeat, it will push the PV southward possibly putting more in the game.
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NCSNOW
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Calling the ole punter in for December. That leaves about a 8 to 10 week window for most outside the hilltop regions. Good Luck. Right now it looks like it's gonna take some type of freak accident in the hemisphere to get the carpet white. Just dont see anything concrete to be optimistic about LR. We stayed below normal first 2/3rds of December, so I want complain. Gonna go swing the old golf clubs Thurs an Fri so that will take the sting out expierencing spring time temps instead of a white Christmas. Ive learn to just throw it back at mother nature experiencing these constant warm winters the past few years. Growing immune to being disappointed with crap patterns. Almost expect nothing else .