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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
We’ve got low -60’s showing up in Greenland. This is an anonymously cold and tightly wound vortex that isn’t going anywhere for a long time. At this point it wouldn’t surprise me if the majority of North America ends up AN for the month of January. I think we just might need to accept it and look forward to February when this thing has more of a chance to weaken. The areas in and around the arctic were overdue for a brutal winter and they’re getting it.
I posted it in the wrong thread, but nice +PNA, that’s pretty much it tho 
Yeah idk cmc kinda straddles the fence euro releases the closes low in the west. Could go either way really
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Philstorm91
Member
12z GFS leaves me feeling really optimistic. We start to see the TPV start to inch across Nunavut and a +PNA taking shape. Take heart!
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GFS finally supports my thinking. Recognize the pattern first. Too far out to know the details of when but I think January will feature a winter storm west of the blue ridge.
Deeper into winter climo we get, the easier cold air will win the race esp for the areas who already saw 1-3” so far this winter in the Deep South. Favored position on the back side with a juicy southern stream, Mississippi/Alabama could see a sig. snowfall (3-6”+).
BillyMurrayWx
Member
That would be a big dog look for Birmingham to Chattanooga to Knoxville. Too bad it’s in fantasy land. I still think that cold air in Alaska eventually comes crashing into the Eastern US in January and Opens up potential for most on here.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What a wild GEFS run
For you guys, I wouldn’t won’t to change the pattern to overwhelming cold that would get the Carolinas in play. You would be shooting yourself in the foot while east of the Appalachian divide becomes overwhelmingly favored. Keep the same pattern going and west of the blue ridge is going to get smoked by one or two. See members 3, 12 and 14 above.
I like the GEFS in terms of most likely being right in this pattern. To the east into North Carolina needs to watch for CAD mix or cold rain. Both sides of the divide are not likely to be snowy together. I would be excited if I was in Tennessee back to the south-west. If your in Charlotte to Raleigh, all is not lost if the pattern changes in time for Feb/Mar that’s plenty of time to score.
If you get a steep trough to slow down and go negative tilt, than overrunning precip into colder air with a developing SFC low is somewhat possible, gefs hinting at that, gfs hinting at that, (with that trough in the 200hr range with the +PNA) much better chance that would work out for the western SE if a setup like that was to happen
RollTide18
Member
What a wild GEFS run
Member 8 looks like a nice NW flow Flizzard for a lot of the board and member 17 looks like a Feb 73 redux.
Some of the analogs I’m looking at had the first statewide snow for NC on the very last week of February with 3-10”. While areas to the west scored sooner but their winter ended earlier too. Really need CAD to save us for some MIX bagged events in the mean time is all I’m watching for in January.
Yeah a strong 50/50 “wavebreak” helps the ridge to flex, creating a strong west based -NAO, altho I would really don’t know if thats exact with lower heights around central/northern Greenland
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Personally, the NAO can do whatever. I really like seeing ridging build toward the pole from Asia. If we can get the low over AK to continue to build westward and flex the eastern Pacific ridge, a bridge across the pole would put us in the freezer.
pcbjr
Member
precisely
whatalife
Moderator
Looks like the 12z EPS is headed in that direction.
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