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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Arcc said:
Personally, the NAO can do whatever. I really like seeing ridging build toward the pole from Asia. If we can get the low over AK to continue to build westward and flex the eastern Pacific ridge, a bridge across the pole would put us in the freezer.
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Reason why I like the -NAO is that while the process of a -EPO would destroy it, why it’s there temporarily with a building AK ridge it would slow things down, and we wouldn't have to worry about threading any needle Becuase even with a -EPO, Miller B Storm tracks are more favored, NAO block would help keep cold in longer and better MSLP over the US and a better storm track (-NAO favor miller A tracks), let’s just hope we can somehow get them together in the future, but yeah if we just get the -NAO by itself, meh
 
The 12Z EPS doesn't show that GFS 1/3-4 SE cold shot but it does show that any torching ends by 1/7 fwiw. It also has a short near normal period around New Year's.
We'll see as the models have not been reliable. But even if it wrong and the torch keeps going past 1/7, we'll survive as there are way worse things to worry about.
 
Looking through the 12z members, the only thing most of them have in common is a stout west coast ridge at 240hrs. By 360 hrs a good chunk of them still have the stout ridge with a smaller percentage showing the thing shooting into Alaska which would explain some of the bitter anomalies in the image above. Otherwise they are all over the place regarding other features so the Mean should be tossed except for the +PNA and perhaps a little for the -EPO.
 
The 12Z GEFS and EPS seem to have taken a step towards better. That's not really surprising considering it couldn't get any worse than what it was showing. With so many moving pieces its bound to change from run to run. I would suggest looking at the long range pattern like you would a 5 day snowstorm. Look at trends and look for model agreement and consistency. Hopefully the better trends continue. But it could easily go back to a dumpster fire since it seems to want to revert back to that look every few cycles. For every good day of trends we get 2 to 3 bad days. Bamwx and some others don't wait for trends. Instead after one or two cycles they're all in again and then if flips right back on them.
 
Here's the last panel on the 18z GEFS. I don't hate it.
500h_anom.na.png

sfct_anom.conus.png
 
packfan98 said:
Here's the last panel on the 18z GEFS. I don't hate it.
500h_anom.na.png

sfct_anom.conus.png
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if we can keep those lower heights off the SE coast we should be money for a seasonal January. Overall not a lot to work with here but I’ve seen worse in the past 10 years. Plus it doesn’t take crazy anoms to catch the tail end of a retreating high to score something east of the mountains.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Cross Creek? We need to get together for a round some day! Have fun and Merry Christmas!!! Can't believe this winter is looking and probably going to be horrible again. Will we ever have another great winter?
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We do. Farm right beside cross creek is my inlaws. Thurs is 1st time since knee surgery. Hopefully goes well. WE NEED THE PNA TO GET +++ AND STAY.
 
Freeze 1/6 to Gulf coast per 0Z GFS.
Flurries/light snow deep into the SE with the cold plunge. @pcbjr high only in 40s with upper 20s next morning! Winter’s revenge?

Edit: And note that the origins of this airmass are actually largely Pacific I think. This shows how with a deep enough quick plunge, the SE can still get pretty cold even when the airmass isn’t primarily Arctic in origin.

Edit: This is followed by a very cold pure Arctic airmass, but it isn’t as cold for most of the SE as the prior one because it is only a glancing blow though the upper Midwest and NE gets very cold.
 
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GaWx said:
Freeze 1/6 to Gulf coast per 0Z GFS.
Flurries/light snow deep into the SE with the cold plunge. @pcbjr high only in 40s with upper 20s next morning! Winter’s revenge?

Edit: And note that the origins of this airmass are actually largely Pacific I think. This shows how with a deep enough quick plunge, the SE can still get pretty cold even when the airmass isn’t primarily Arctic in origin.
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has something to do with Alaska being so cold maybe?
 
SETNwx said:
has something to do with Alaska being so cold maybe?
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Good thinking but looking again more closely, it appears the Alaskan bitter air comes down into the Midwest and NE with the follow up cold front, the one that cools the SE back down somewhat but only with a glancing blow.
 
GaWx said:
Good thinking but looking again more closely, it appears the Alaskan bitter air comes down into the Midwest and NE with the follow up cold front, the one that cools the SE back down somewhat but only with a glancing blow.
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Hopefully if that cold is coming into the NE, maybe a well timed high can help set up a CAD storm
 
Anchorage looks to get even colder into the first week of January anyway, so downstream effects won't occur until mid Jan or later anyway.
 
00z Euro, Eastern Alaska is around 50 degrees warmer at 144 than it was 3 days ago at 216. So operation thaw Alaska may not be quite as hard as it was looking a few days ago. New Years Day 00z temps were 55-70 across the entire South off that same 00z Sunday run. This run temps are low 40s to around 50. Much much improvement as far as torching in the New Year.
 
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