pcbjr
Member
Nothing worth witing home about, but since we're sans Wiki right now, this is a good model comparison site if anyone is interested ... http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/
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FWIW the cmc also has a similar type of look as the Gfs ... maybe there will really be a storm to track this time
*Fantasy* 1055 high on the Colorado/Wyoming border and this is what it translates to..i’m afraid the writing is on the wall for the first 2/3 of January. There’s just nothing there to work with, although I would expect a BIG marginal mountain snow event sometime just before mid January. View attachment 29005View attachment 29004
Not really worried about whether the models show cold or warm 4 weeks ahead, they will fluctuate daily and even run to run as we have seen so many times already. The models are having a terrible time trying to figure out where the cold should be place in the US and I expect this to continue. Moral of the story is, "don't worry, be happy" quit living run to run or even day to day on the modelsIf you haven't looked at any of the models overnight, don't bother, unless you just want to see what you already know. I'm hopeful that by the 3rd week or so in January, we'll start to see at least a few signs of winter coming back at some point.
We watch models. It's what we do. Otherwise, might as well just hold a finger up and see if your knees hurt. Models usually will start to agree on large scale pattern changes. Right now, they agree with a fairly non-wintry pattern for a good while. Eventually, that will change. Maybe. If and when it does, we'll be watching.Not really worried about whether the models show cold or warm 4 weeks ahead, they will fluctuate daily and even run to run as we have seen so many times already. The models are having a terrible time trying to figure out where the cold should be place in the US and I expect this to continue. Moral of the story is, "don't worry, be happy" quit living run to run or even day to day on the models
Not really worried about whether the models show cold or warm 4 weeks ahead, they will fluctuate daily and even run to run as we have seen so many times already. The models are having a terrible time trying to figure out where the cold should be place in the US and I expect this to continue. Moral of the story is, "don't worry, be happy" quit living run to run or even day to day on the models
According to @GaWx research, inside the COD in phase 8 (I believe) is when we get our best cold in the SE. But boy, the upcoming pattern portrayed doesn't seem to show much cold making it down here, other than a transient shot ot two.EPS MJO trends. Will be interesting to watch how this evolves...does it make the full trip and does it really evolve into high amp ph4/5. I'm weenie hoping it trends to low amp ph 4/5, or even better would be be follow what it did in Dec and dives back into COD before 4.
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Really. Just go outside enjoy the early spring we have ... getting a lot outside work done myselfNot really worried about whether the models show cold or warm 4 weeks ahead, they will fluctuate daily and even run to run as we have seen so many times already. The models are having a terrible time trying to figure out where the cold should be place in the US and I expect this to continue. Moral of the story is, "don't worry, be happy" quit living run to run or even day to day on the models
It's a beautiful day for pruning and mulching. Going to mow up the last of the leaves, so when we build a snowman later, it won't have leaves all in it. Then, it will be time to play some cornhole!Really. Just go outside enjoy the early spring we have ... getting a lot outside work done myself
I was thinking same thing ... get leaves mulched and up good for our snowIt's a beautiful day for pruning and mulching. Going to mow up the last of the leaves, so when we build a snowman later, it won't have leaves all in it. Then, it will be time to play some cornhole!
The EPS is far from infallible with the MJO especially when it’s being initialized over the West Pacific or Western Hemisphere. It usually has a low amplitude bias and most nwp also have a low amplitude bias that gets larger with range esp when the MJO is near the COD or has weak amplitude. A coherent convectively coupled kelvin wave is propagating from the central pacific into the Western Hemisphere right now.EPS MJO trends. Will be interesting to watch how this evolves...does it make the full trip and does it really evolve into high amp ph4/5. I'm weenie hoping it trends to low amp ph 4/5, or even better would be be follow what it did in Dec and dives back into COD before 4.
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There’s very little predictability with TPV lobes like the one over Alaska right now, for the moment both the EPS and GEFS drop a chunk of it down towards the Lakes and SE Canada and another piece later digs south along the spine of the Rockies. Perhaps we could squeeze something out in the Jan 5-10th timeframe if a piece of the TPV actually does drop towards the lakes. My original time frame a week or so ago was for us to potentially sneak a storm in sometime around Jan 5-15 could remain relevant if the MJO continues gaining amplitude in subsequent forecasts like it has the last few daysView attachment 29008
GEFS shows what could happen at least for a more favorable pattern with colder anomalies throughout most of North America if we can tip the arctic air a little further south. EPS keeps it bottled up north. From this range it can certainly go either way but there is not a whole lot of difference between a possible wintry pattern and continued stale pacific air
I was thinking same thing ... get leaves mulched and up good for our March Flizzard️
From Maxar this morning:
"Shifting Pattern; Eastern Cold Lacks Durability
Models are projecting the establishment of a colder Canadian source region during the 11-15 Day period, even having a round of below normal temperatures into the Midwest and East. The forecast follows suit but is lacking more durable cold air into the Eastern U.S. This lack of durable cooling is a result of the pattern, which gains –PNA characteristics. Historically, the –PNA correlates warm in the South and East this time of year, keeping colder air bottled up in central and western Canada per pattern correlations. The atmospheric –GLAAM has a role in producing this pattern. The MJO is also within the atmospheric background, with the tropical forcing projected to emerge in phase 4 in the 11-15 Day period and perhaps progress eastward into phase 5 in the 16-20 Day. These phases likewise argue against durable cooling into the Eastern Half, while adding warmer risk to the longer range model projections."
But the sun angle ... lolSo...February then.
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So...February then.
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If today’s GFS is right we won’t have to wait that long. Of course, that is a big “if”.No, I’d say: So, 2nd half of January then.
Piggybacking off that and ignoring the fact that this is a 384hr GFS map, a progression such as this would make sense. Vortex rotates away from AK and into Greenland allowing a ridge to creep into the Aleutians and build. Wouldn’t benefit us right away but it would throw enough turmoil into the arctic region to allow the pattern to break down and set us up for a strong finish. Just my couple penniesHaven’t really looked much at models past few days, but interesting evolution on the GEFS. All the cold over AK feeds a series of lows that traverse Canada and setup a transient 50/50 with HP filling in. This appears transient especially with big GOA ridge....that should lead to cold west warm east...-PNA. But, still a chance to theoretically time something perfectly.
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If we get that track through 7-8-1-2 we should have something to work with in the next couple of weeks. Big if though and a few years ago during a bad overall pattern we had an 8-1-2 trip that didn't help us at all.
Piggybacking off that and ignoring the fact that this is a 384hr GFS map, a progression such as this would make sense. Vortex rotates away from AK and into Greenland allowing a ridge to creep into the Aleutians and build. Wouldn’t benefit us right away but it would throw enough turmoil into the arctic region to allow the pattern to break down and set us up for a strong finish. Just my couple pennies View attachment 29013
Should be different seeming that we’re definitely not in a La Niña winterThat appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA/-AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
Should be different seeming that we’re definitely not in a La Niña winter
-AAM tends to favor -PNA/La Niña pattern.
Feels like we keep switching from a Nino to Nina pattern. Would that be because we are weak ENSO?
That appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA, and -AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
We watch models. It's what we do. Otherwise, might as well just hold a finger up and see if your knees hurt. Models usually will start to agree on large scale pattern changes. Right now, they agree with a fairly non-wintry pattern for a good while. Eventually, that will change. Maybe. If and when it does, we'll be watching.