Burrrrrrrrrrrr: 
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s also because we started from one of the lowest points on record and have a strong +AO. This one year of seemingly amazing growth in arctic sea ice during the fall and winter when the preceding summer was exceptionally low doesn’t mean climate change is a hoax
I also wouldn’t consider tony heller a reliable unbiased source of information on this matter
Ilovesnow28
Member
Our first happy hour of Christmas ? ... Gfs provides the goods .. especially in how the pattern looks down the road .. looks like we’re heavily entrenched in winter by the 10th
tennessee storm
Member
We are goin put our eggs in a basket on 6z gfs long range ... trust it? Wait for ensemble support than o my get aroused bit
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS looks like it’s trending towards a big -PNA in early January with the chunk of the TPV over Alaska sinking south towards the Pacific NW and Canadian Rockies
It appears that even BAMwx in a very un-JB manner (kudos for not being stubborn) is more or less already throwing in the towel for January as a whole averaged out with a leaning toward warm in the E US. Also, they are getting rid of daily updates on Twitter if I’m interpreting a recent tweet correctly, which would also be unlike JB.
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Thanks for posting this it's good to see, but your comment about CNN and others (especially) NPR is absolute nonsense. Of course you won't hear about it because it's not newsworthy. The Arctic sea ice grows every winter. When we get to the height of the cold season extent in, I think, April it will almost certainly be below the mean again and I'm sure you won't be around to comment on that.
This is one of the reasons BAMwx has warmed their first half of January forecast, a forecasted +4 or so AO with +AO remaining thereafter through the end of the 14 day GEFS:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
Let’s see how much the Arctic cools by 1/1/20.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
Let’s see how much the Arctic cools by 1/1/20.
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Lol they’ll always comments on when ice is at its low point but never want to comment when it’s normal and at a high point ... that’s the issue
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s likely because the long term trend doesn’t show any increase or even a quasi-steady conditions. Not to mention, sea ice is still about 2 standard deviations below average, I wouldn’t consider than normal or a “high point”.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah because singular long range operational model runs are something we should put a lot of faith in. Only thing you should be looking at beyond day 6-7 are continental and hemispheric scale circulation patterns and other forms of lower frequency variability that influence broader scale standing planetary waves.
cd2play
Member
Oh I know not to put faith in it I’m just saying it was nice to see THATS all ... would rather see a cold pattern than a big south east ridge in the long range it’s more fun to look at
Don’t wish for a pattern change if your west of the blue ridge as the 2nd winter event is in the making. This is a very favored area over the Carolinas..and this type of pattern has a history of producing snow in Atlanta when areas further north-east see cold rain.
Storm5
Member
They need to get rid of daily updates cause the flip as much as the GFS. If they are going warm January then prepare for vodka cold
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ATLwxfan
Member
I have seen more 180° forecast flips in December as I have ever seen. In a span of 5 days Glen Burns went from “very cold Christmas” to “very warm Christmas”. Pretty pathetic. Why not be honest and say, “unfortunately we cannot trust our models and cannot predict the weather accurately beyond 5-7 days.”
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Sure looks like EPS is following MJO analog for high amp ph5.
Ph6 is similar to ph5 but ph7, as we have talked about, is much better. My hope is by mid/end of January we can develop into a more opportunistic pattern.
Ph6 is similar to ph5 but ph7, as we have talked about, is much better. My hope is by mid/end of January we can develop into a more opportunistic pattern.
It hasn't been on the right of the circle all winter and when we get to mid winter it makes a hard loop right for the warm phases.