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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Color me silly but I just don’t understand the mass panic already. Every model, including the ensembles are all over the place. I’m just saying who the hell knows what’s going to happen for January but I think the panic is just silly right now.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Oh I know not to put faith in it I’m just saying it was nice to see THATS all ... would rather see a cold pattern than a big south east ridge in the long range it’s more fun to look at
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No you’re missing the entire point of my previous post, it’s not nice to see a good or atrocious solution at 300+ hrs in a singular operational model run especially when the pattern doesn’t really support it to begin with. It’s fun to look at but literally means absolutely nothing and you should garner no feelings of sorrow or joy in looking at 15 day model runs. Ensembles are another story of course
 
deltadog03 said:
Color me silly but I just don’t understand the mass panic already. Every model, including the ensembles are all over the place. I’m just saying who the hell knows what’s going to happen for January but I think the panic is just silly right now.
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Not sure anyone is in panic mode...save for the playful banter/sarcasm. The pattern won't be favorable for the next couple of weeks, atleast. I guess I see the arguement that the ensembles haven't been great in the extended but that's really only the ensemble runs that have shown favorable patterns...none of those runs have rolled forward. Those runs have all been wrong.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No you’re missing the entire point of my previous post, it’s not nice to see a good or atrocious solution at 300+ hrs in a singular operational model run especially when the pattern doesn’t really support it to begin with. It’s fun to look at but literally means absolutely nothing and you should garner no feelings of sorrow or joy in looking at 15 day model runs. Ensembles are another story of course
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I enjoy seeing extended panels that show cold and snowy solutions. Personally, I think it's ok to feel good about that, as long as you understand that it's very probable it won't end up like that. Also, when you're seeing run after run of bad, it's hopeful to see some changes being shown in the LR. That's usually how it starts...a few good solutions, followed by a few more and then a few more, and now things are rolling forward you have some support for a change. It sure worked that way this time with the upcoming crap.

And yeah @KyloG, agreed on the panicking. There has been some bantering, but I don't recall seeing a ton of panic out there yet.
 
Merry Christmas guys. My friend Dr. Roundy from University of Albany told me yesterday that he believes phase 6 and then into COD and then back to phase 6. He said two areas of convection. One in the western IO and one in the western Pacific. The western Pacific should take over and be dominant. He didn't mention anything about the maritime continent. He may be wrong or correct.
 
For now, i still believe it's a matter of when not if. I would take a favorable Pacific over a favorable Atlantic anytime. It probably don't matter and hasnt got much attention but so far the soi has dropped pretty good lately. -27.97 fwiw
 
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Mr. Golf said:
Merry Christmas guys. My friend Dr. Roundy from University of Albany told me yesterday that he believes phase 6 and then into COD and then back to phase 6. He said two areas of convection. One in the western IO and one in the western Pacific. The western Pacific should take over and be dominant. He didn't mention anything about the maritime continent. He may be wrong or correct.
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So other words. Let me get this straight ... he maybe right,he May be wrong... sounds like a 50 50 at best then lol
 
The GFS can't decide if it wants a cold blast and possible storm around the 5th or nothing. Too far out to really look at anything else. I am liking the recurring +PNA though and cold blast. The EPS looks to be moving toward a western ridge but wants to buff the SER up too, so we shall see.
 
deltadog03 said:
Color me silly but I just don’t understand the mass panic already. Every model, including the ensembles are all over the place. I’m just saying who the hell knows what’s going to happen for January but I think the panic is just silly right now.
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I wouldn't say anyone is hitting the panic button overall. But the ensembles have been pretty consistent saying we're in a bad pattern throughout the long range. If the first week of Jan rolls around the tPV is still strong and we have no blocking up top and the MJO is in a strong phase 5 how would that not be a cause for concern though? I don't put much faith in Feb anymore. Its been warm for years and this year's pattern seems to be following all the recent years past of warmth. So I doubt Feb will be good either.

At this point we should just hope we can catch a break like Jan 2000 and get a 2 weeks stretch of goods. I'd say the chances of getting a pattern change to sustained cold is a long shot.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I wouldn't say anyone is hitting the panic button overall. But the ensembles have been pretty consistent saying we're in a bad pattern throughout the long range. If the first week of Jan rolls around the tPV is still strong and we have no blocking up top and the MJO is in a strong phase 5 how would that not be a cause for concern though? I don't put much faith in Feb anymore. Its been warm for years and this year's pattern seems to be following all the recent years past of warmth. So I doubt Feb will be good either.

At this point we should just hope we can catch a break like Jan 2000 and get a 2 weeks stretch of goods. I'd say the chances of getting a pattern change to sustained cold is a long shot.
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Yeah another Jan 2000 would be epic and just torch the rest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
KyloG said:
Sure looks like EPS is following MJO analog for high amp ph5.



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Ph6 is similar to ph5 but ph7, as we have talked about, is much better. My hope is by mid/end of January we can develop into a more opportunistic pattern.

View attachment 28975
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The mean is garbage as the members are all over the place. Some show big +PNA and some have the ridge just off the coast allowing the trough to dig in. From my perspective, all I'm seeing is a very progressive pattern.

Also am I the only one who wonders why in all that is good and snowy is the FV3 or GEFS being mentioned at all such as from Cohen above?
 
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