Cohen is almost always on the wrong side of the boat.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Dumpster juice, maybe that trough off Atlantic Canada will trend stronger meaning cooler WX /wedge for CAD areas
Maybe it was banter but either way, imho to throw away the month I think that’s silly. Yes the models don’t look great right now at all, but just 3-4 days ago we were forecasted to go in amazing phases of the MJO etc etc. all in all I’m just saying let’s see where we are next week and see if that pattern is holding in the short to medium range.
Personally the models that matter aren't that bad, they are just showing a progressive pattern which means we rely on timing. That said, we rely on timing even in "good" patterns.
I agree with this, but it does seem like the it's a little easier for the pattern to be disagreeable in winters of late. Not panicking or even saying things won't/can't turn around tomorrow. But man, it sucks to be seeing things look like they do, heading into the heart of winter again.
I agree. It really does.
Yea it does. Regardless of different long range indicators every year we end up with the same result it seems. Kicking the can down the road waiting on a favorable pattern in the heart of winter. No one knows why. Even HM has busted horribly with his cold December. Not bashing those guys. They are the reason this science will continue to improve and I'm grateful for them. But there is so much we don't know. And it's obvious the last 2 years. For some unknown reason it just wants to be warm down here.
I don’t think even BAMwx is throwing away the month with their new warmer Jan forecast. Instead, they’re throwing away the first half of Jan and are saying that is enough to force them to warm up Jan as a whole because they don’t see the back half being cold enough to overcome the warm start and make it a cold month. I applaud them and Cohen for not being stubborn like JB. I mean a +4 AO as well as a +NAO and a move toward the warm MJO phases is not good to see
Agreed. I think the overall winter verify above, but not as bad as in some years.
I predicted before the winter started several times a little warmer than normal DJF but not nearly as warm as last winter’s torch due to a less strong SER. I was using Maxar for guidance. I see no reason to switch to warmer than that as of yet. I also have alluded to thinking 20-21 has better potential.
Edit: a little warmer than normal vs current 1981-2010 normals would be near normal vs more recent averages.
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I think models are definitely seeing a major wild card in the pattern with this big low pressure system through the middle of the country in 4-5 days.. how this storm ends up playing out could prove significant with the eventual placement of things down the road
Likely no winter storm ofc, while the SE ridge will be somewhat weak from the active Southern stream, it’ll be there to the point to make storms cut or become app runners or miller Bs
While keeping in mind that it is significantly colder than other models near the north pole, the first image below shows how cold the 12Z GEFS is for 1/1/20 vs 1981-2010 normals on 1/1/2020 for the Arctic N of 80N (~-5C) and this is about how cold the last few GEFS runs have been. I can't recall the last time any model was so cold in the Arctic! OTOH, the 2nd image is the 12Z EPS for the same time. It is FAR warmer than the GEFS there with ~1C warmer than 1981-2010 normals although even that's a big cool-off from the current warmth. I'm sure the huge difference is because of the warm biased EPS for many areas vs the generally cold biased GEFS for certain areas. However, I admit I don't know the respective biases for the Arctic, itself.
The 3rd image is the daily avg temp/anomaly (but vs a colder period, 1958-2002) for N of 80N. Whereas it is still much warmer than 1958-2002 normals now (~+6C), look for it to drop a good bit based on the model consensus between now and New Years. If the EPS is right, it will still remain a bit warmer than the 1958-2002 normals. But if the GEFS were to be right, I think it would plunge to a bit colder than even the 1958-2002 normals as it has it down to ~5C colder than 1981-2010 normals. This will be a good test of the Arctic biases of the GEFS vs EPS. My guess for 1/1/20 is for somewhere near the middle because I think the EPS is too warm and the GEFS is too cold. So, I'm guessing it will get down to right at or slightly colder than 1958-2002 normal, which in itself would be a pretty rare event based on the last 5+ years.
IMAGE 1: 12z GEFS forecast anomalies for 12Z on 1/1/20: ~-5C (vs 1981-2010) for Arctic north of 80N.
IMAGE 2: 12z EPS forecast anomalies for 12Z on 1/1/20: ~+1C (vs 1981-2010) for Arctic north of 80N.
IMAGE 3: Arctic temps/anomalies vs 1958-2002: currently +6C anomaly
The 3rd image is the daily avg temp/anomaly (but vs a colder period, 1958-2002) for N of 80N. Whereas it is still much warmer than 1958-2002 normals now (~+6C), look for it to drop a good bit based on the model consensus between now and New Years. If the EPS is right, it will still remain a bit warmer than the 1958-2002 normals. But if the GEFS were to be right, I think it would plunge to a bit colder than even the 1958-2002 normals as it has it down to ~5C colder than 1981-2010 normals. This will be a good test of the Arctic biases of the GEFS vs EPS. My guess for 1/1/20 is for somewhere near the middle because I think the EPS is too warm and the GEFS is too cold. So, I'm guessing it will get down to right at or slightly colder than 1958-2002 normal, which in itself would be a pretty rare event based on the last 5+ years.
IMAGE 1: 12z GEFS forecast anomalies for 12Z on 1/1/20: ~-5C (vs 1981-2010) for Arctic north of 80N.
IMAGE 2: 12z EPS forecast anomalies for 12Z on 1/1/20: ~+1C (vs 1981-2010) for Arctic north of 80N.
IMAGE 3: Arctic temps/anomalies vs 1958-2002: currently +6C anomaly
Jon
Member
This warmth makes sense...
We were in Phase 3 December 15
Baxter et al. states that 5-20 days following Phase 3 during the winter months, the East coast experiences significant positive temperature anomalies.
See the lagged composites here of 850mb temperatures. Each lag (Pentad) is 5 days time.
So it’s verifying nicely here, this is the forecasted 850mb temperature 5 day mean 10-15 days after December 15th (which is the current 5 day forecast)
*****The good news:
Baxter et al. also says after phase 7 the East coast experiences cold anomalies 10-20 days after.
Which based on the original RMM method, would put us in a favorable pattern at the earliest after January 8 and at the latest January 16.
So if we’re to believe all this, expect a pattern change the second week of January. I think this is interesting because we always pay attention to favorable winter phases like 8,1,2 but other phases such as phase 3 & 7 can tell us about forthcoming winter patterns as well.
Cited article below:
We were in Phase 3 December 15
Baxter et al. states that 5-20 days following Phase 3 during the winter months, the East coast experiences significant positive temperature anomalies.
See the lagged composites here of 850mb temperatures. Each lag (Pentad) is 5 days time.
So it’s verifying nicely here, this is the forecasted 850mb temperature 5 day mean 10-15 days after December 15th (which is the current 5 day forecast)
*****The good news:
Baxter et al. also says after phase 7 the East coast experiences cold anomalies 10-20 days after.
Which based on the original RMM method, would put us in a favorable pattern at the earliest after January 8 and at the latest January 16.
So if we’re to believe all this, expect a pattern change the second week of January. I think this is interesting because we always pay attention to favorable winter phases like 8,1,2 but other phases such as phase 3 & 7 can tell us about forthcoming winter patterns as well.
Cited article below:
If I'm looking at that right we should have the 2nd half of January with a decent look right? By mid Jan it's in the warm phases and I'm guessing with lag the warmth would come back at the end of Jan or the 1st of Feb right?This warmth makes sense...
We were in Phase 3 December 15
Baxter et al. states that 5-20 days following Phase 3 during the winter months, the East coast experiences significant positive temperature anomalies.
See the lagged composites here of 850mb temperatures. Each lag (Pentad) is 5 days time.
So it’s verifying nicely here, this is the forecasted 850mb temperature 5 day mean 10-15 days after December 15th (which is the current 5 day forecast)
*****The good news:
Baxter et al. also says after phase 7 the East coast experiences cold anomalies 10-20 days after.
Which based on the original RMM method, would put us in a favorable pattern at the earliest after January 8 and at the latest January 16.
So if we’re to believe all this, expect a pattern change the second week of January. I think this is interesting because we always pay attention to favorable winter phases like 8,1,2 but other phases such as phase 3 & 7 can tell us about forthcoming winter patterns as well.
Cited article below:
Jon
Member
Just looking at the second week of Jan for a colder regime change. Could happen the third week as well and still be a correct forecast.
For MJO phase diagrams I don’t really look past a weeks time. I’ve seen, even recently, the MJO forecasted poorly in the long range just because of how low the amplitude is at the moment. But if we can make it thru 7 to 8 it will work out great.
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Anyone got eps h5 heights post D10? Gefs and geps weren't terrible in that time period. Jons ideas above match up pretty well with what you see on the geps/gefs with the tpv getting just north of hudson bay and cold building in over time. I may have been a little over zealous going all in for January BUT I doubt we are staring at a complete disaster.
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baroowoofr
Member