Well, maybe the GFS from the other day wasn’t so crazy after all ??
..issa start
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
..issa start
Sometimes you wonder what happens if you ridge the whole thing from the Pacific into Siberia
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I assume you know this but for those readers who don't, the exact opposite of what this shows would normally be much more conducive to SE cold, a trough near and south of the Aleutians since a ridge there often teleconnects with a -PNA (cold W US into N Plains and upper Midwest) and a trough there often teleconnects with a +PNA. Move the ridge eastward 1,000 miles and I think we'd be in business. Unfortunately that is way easier said than done.
What this is showing is a La Ninaish -PNAish look, which is favored by -AAM, which is predicted to dominate in early Jan. even though it is slightly + today and for the next few days. This kind of look often gets it very cold in a places like Denver and MSP
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This still confuses me I think the models are still very very confused on the evolution of this pattern per these crazy different runs from run to run including their ensembles I definitely don’t believe people should be canceling anything with this much uncertainty but also I just remember Webber being consistent in saying if anything were in an El Niño year so I feel like if a La Niña type pattern try’s to set up it won’t have staying power or maybe it’s just down right wrong .. I think little jogs in the models can really put us in a good spot .. only problem is getting to that point but I think the euro eps put some light into the hope of thing
The main positive I see this winter is that the main cold air availability is and has been on our side of the globe instead of the usual Eurasia. Therefore it would not not take as much to tap into the cold, and we may have more leeway to avoiding a torch, or better yet score a wintry pattern. Frustrating thing is we cannot it buy good teleconnection that would drive the cold air anomalies our way. At least it may be less difficult to make some minor changes to go our way later in the winter.
50/50 low signal has been there, and even during a crap pattern can deliver wintry precip at the beggining of cutters at a minimum, or actually help out the Mslp pattern in the eastern US, if I’m not mistaken something like that happened last January during the last week, can’t remember tho
Guys I would like a to send a reminder think before you post. If it isn’t something you would say to your momma. It is probably something that doesn't to be posted on here. Thank you and continue on.
Six Mile Wx
Member
One things for sure, when ridging finally builds into Alaska they’re should be be plenty of cold air on tap to send our way!
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
How did jan 12 end up
ajr
Member
Nothing except a few minor events in the mountains unfortunately
cd2play
Member
Like Jan 19
It was warm to say the least. We kind of had that coming, we had just finished a 3yr BN winter stretch.
gotta admit, this is a weird map. 
I’ll cash in at this point
Gotta love the gefs cold bias 
Looking at the euro op tonight it is showing me what could become an amazing patter after the first week of Jan possibly. Active southern branch and high pressure building in Canada.
whatalife
Moderator
FWIW here is the 10-15 00z EPS 500 height anomalies...
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Six Mile Wx
Member
I’m not looking to January of 2012 as an analog unless that pattern becomes lasting. The latest 0z run of the EPS shows that cold starting to head our way in a week from today.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Looks a lot better! Now, if we could just get that Ridge over Europe to move towards Greenland to hold the cold in the south!FWIW here is the 10-15 00z EPS 500 height anomalies...
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FWIW here is the 10-15 00z EPS 500 height anomalies...
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Miller B/apps runner pattern right there with that 50/50 and a hint of higher heights nosing into the SE which over time will probably build up due to a smoother mean rn
Gfs hinted at it a couple times, and at times the ensembles, but some show that TPV splitting
If only the GFS stopped right here.
NCCWOP9077
Member
I'm Stephen and I'm also new to the discussion board. I enjoy the enthusiasm for winter weather on here. and weather in general. I've lived in NC for 39 years and I have seen warm days like the ones we are currently experiencing. It does make one wonder if winter makes a comeback. I honestly don't believe ( history tends to back this up) that we can go thru an entire winter without getting some sort of payback from mother nature. There is alot of cold air over Alaska/Siberia (-40 to -60F) and it has to get dislodged at some point. Now where exactly the core of this super cold air goes is up for debate, but do believe we can't go thru an entire winter and not get at least some snow/ice in the south. I'm model watching like y'all are, but let's give it time and be optimistic.
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Welcome to the SouthernWx weenie insane asylum! Great to have you a board.
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Jon
Member
Are you talking about the few days of the forecast? I wouldn’t trust it in the COD or anything outside Day 7 on the GEFS.
Check this out...(I know it’s not the bias corrected version but I didn’t have an old screenshot of that)we were supposed to be in the COD and we are obviously in a decent amplitude of phase 7 (map not updated yet)
The GEFS LR MJO diagram where the spread is increased as noted by the gray areas is notoriously terrible.
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Are you talking about the few days of the forecast? I wouldn’t trust it in the COD or anything outside Day 7 on the GEFS.
Check this out...(I know it’s not the bias corrected version but I didn’t have an old screenshot of that)we were supposed to be in the COD and we are obviously in a decent amplitude of phase 7 (map not updated yet)
The GEFS LR MJO diagram where the spread is increased as noted by the gray areas is notoriously terrible.
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Thus the bias corrected version. It’s been a couple runs in a row now that has reduced the amplitude in ph 5. That’s about the only thing I implied on that post.
Jon
Member
I don’t think the BC version performs any better at low amplitude (talking about the last few days) not sure though.
Also I’m more agreeing with you, drastic changes likely at the tail end of MJO phase diagram plots. So it’s a good thing.
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Jon
Member
I’m not taking them literally that’s my point. I think we are on the same page.
My point is it can ride the outside of that phase diagram and not enter phase 5 at all. Sorry if I’m not explaining myself correctly it’s early lol
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ghost1
Member
The models have consistently shown polar air advancing toward the SE in the long range only to be stopped by the Ohio River. It's like there is a anti arctic force field set up there.
Yes we call it the evil SER.
And the Weather channel chiming in...
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Really not easy to draw a much worse looking map than that.
And the Weather channel chiming in...
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People need to start living in reality instead of pahi
Is this for January?
And the Weather channel chiming in...
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I guess they could paint the entire CONUS in that brown color.