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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

DarkKnight said:
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1058mb High. Lol
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SD said:
Its not impossible to get something here
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Get that energy in OK/ ph of Texas to dig farther SW and perhaps become a cutoff, still lots of things can happen between then and now
 
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This is nothing to sneeze at. Some good blocking can dislodge that PV...or maybe a stout EPO, or even a wanna-be short lived faux -NAO. You can’t look at this frame and be giving up on the second week of Jan, and that’s why I like it! Hopefully we get some wild runs to come to bring everyone back down to earth. Prolonged cold maybe not, but we’re gonna have a pattern change first half of Jan!


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Should be interesting to watch the North Pacific storm track over the next few weeks. A deeper, equatorward, more persistent, & negatively tilted Sea of Okhtosk trough >>> stronger NE Pacific anticyclonic wave break & potential for a legit -EPO during the 2nd week of January.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_11.png


Now look at the GEFS, notice this trough is faster, lifting, & positively tilted compared to the EPS >>> downstream ridge is more suppressed >>> less -EPO & more -PNA. We should be able to resolve this evolution late next week.

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As
Webberweather53 said:
Should be interesting to watch the North Pacific storm track over the next few weeks. A deeper, equatorward, more persistent, & negatively tilted Sea of Okhtosk trough >>> stronger NE Pacific anticyclonic wave break & potential for a legit -EPO during the 2nd week of January.

View attachment 29165


Now look at the GEFS, notice this trough is faster, lifting, & positively tilted compared to the EPS >>> downstream ridge is more suppressed >>> less -EPO & more -PNA. We should be able to resolve this evolution late next week.

View attachment 29166
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As is often the case, subtle changes can have big effects downstream to our sensible weather. That trough can potentially alter the pacific high enough to therefore keep the low heights into the American continent and not just off shore like GEFS is showing. Honestly, it is just several hundred miles easterly for the wave pattern to move to give us the brunt of the trough and not the Rockies. Interesting find.
 
strongwxnc said:
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Snow Jam 82 in Atlanta! This was a rather rare winter storm in that it was as or more impactful in N GA than it was in most of NC. I'll never forget that one OMG. An absolutely massive traffic halt suddenly started at ~3:15 PM on Tue 1/12 that I got caught in due to HEAVY snow (huge flakes started within minutes of the first flakes, which was 4 hours early....I was at school looking out the window and it was a wtf moment; keep in mind this was well before the web and practically all cell phones). That immediately stuck everywhere like cake frosting because It was heavy, it had been brutally cold 36 hours earlier (-5, coldest since 1899), below 32 for nearly 72 hours straight, and it was still only in mid 20s then (high that day only 26). So, they then let us out of school. But even after running like crazy to my car while trying not to slip, it was already too late. It took me 5 hours to get home 12 miles way. I was very lucky to make it home and without an accident because it was very slippery. It snowed heavily the rest of the day (4") and then changed to IP and ZR the next day (Wed) with the high then still only 29. Then the following day (Thu 1/14), a 2nd Gulf low produced another snow with a high of only 30, the 5th straight high not exceeding 30! Total 3 day accum was a solid 7" of SN, IP, and ZR that hardly melted into the weekend, when a 2nd airmass brought us down to 0! ATL only started to come back to life the following Monday.

Of all of the ATL winter events I experienced, this was easily the most memorable week for me due to a combo of the heavy winter precip., the coldest there since 1899/first time I experienced below 0, being right in the middle of the traffic disaster, and the city totally closing for nearly a week.
 
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GaWx said:
Snow Jam 82 in Atlanta! This was a rather rare winter storm in that it was as or more impactful in N GA than it was in most of NC. I'll never forget that one OMG. An absolutely massive traffic halt suddenly started at ~3:15 PM on Tue 1/12 that I got caught in due to HEAVY snow (huge flakes started within minutes of the first flakes, which was 4 hours early....I was at school looking out the window and it was a wtf moment; keep in mind this was well before the web and practically all cell phones). That immediately stuck everywhere like cake frosting because It was heavy, it had been brutally cold 36 hours earlier (-5, coldest since 1899), below 32 for nearly 72 hours straight, and it was still only in mid 20s then (high that day only 26). So, they then let us out of school. But even after running like crazy to my car while trying not to slip, it was already too late. It took me 5 hours to get home 12 miles way. It snowed heavily the rest of the day (4") and then changed to IP and ZR the next day (Wed) with the high then still only 29. Then the following day (Thu 1/14), a 2nd Gulf low produced another snow with a high of only 30, the 5th straight high not exceeding 30! Total 3 day accum was a solid 7" of SN, IP, and ZR that hardly melted into the weekend, when a 2nd airmass brought us down to 0! ATL only started to come back to life the following Monday.

Of all of the ATL winter events I experienced, this was easily the most memorable week for me due to a combo of the heavy winter precip., the coldest there since 1899/first time I experienced below 0, being right in the middle of the traffic disaster, and the city totally closing for nearly a week.
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What area were you living in ? There is a website called snowjam82.com that details this storm.
 
GaWx said:
Snow Jam 82 in Atlanta! This was a rather rare winter storm in that it was as or more impactful in N GA than it was in most of NC. I'll never forget that one OMG. An absolutely massive traffic halt suddenly started at ~3:15 PM on Tue 1/12 that I got caught in due to HEAVY snow (huge flakes started within minutes of the first flakes, which was 4 hours early....I was at school looking out the window and it was a wtf moment; keep in mind this was well before the web and practically all cell phones). That immediately stuck everywhere like cake frosting because It was heavy, it had been brutally cold 36 hours earlier (-5, coldest since 1899), below 32 for nearly 72 hours straight, and it was still only in mid 20s then (high that day only 26). So, they then let us out of school. But even after running like crazy to my car while trying not to slip, it was already too late. It took me 5 hours to get home 12 miles way. I was very lucky to make it home and without an accident because it was very slippery. It snowed heavily the rest of the day (4") and then changed to IP and ZR the next day (Wed) with the high then still only 29. Then the following day (Thu 1/14), a 2nd Gulf low produced another snow with a high of only 30, the 5th straight high not exceeding 30! Total 3 day accum was a solid 7" of SN, IP, and ZR that hardly melted into the weekend, when a 2nd airmass brought us down to 0! ATL only started to come back to life the following Monday.

Of all of the ATL winter events I experienced, this was easily the most memorable week for me due to a combo of the heavy winter precip., the coldest there since 1899/first time I experienced below 0, being right in the middle of the traffic disaster, and the city totally closing for nearly a week.
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That’s was my dad’s favorite. He tells me the same story every year. I wish I was around to see it.


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SoutheastRidge said:
What area were you living in ? There is a website called snowjam82.com that details this storm.
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Thanks for the link to a site with great stories! But the main thing lacking in almost all the stories and even in the story of the guy who created the site is that it wasn't predicted by any TV or radio met to start until ~7 PM. I had already been into following wx very closely for years and vividly remember it came in ~4 hours early.

From the webmaster: "As predicted, snow started falling in the afternoon. The ground, frigid from record cold temps, ensured whatever fell, stuck. And fast."

This quote was accurate except it absolutely was not predicted to start in the afternoon. That's the only reason I had decided to go to my 3-6 PM college lab. I actually had contemplated not going to school to play it safe like some folks did. But the public was assured that even the normal rush hour would beat the storm and it was a lab, which was very hard to make up. And remember this was way before the internet/cell phones and even TWC had not quite started. Other than NOAA wx radio, about all we had for up to date wx info were local TV/radio, which didn't have as extensive and timely reporting in advance of wx threats as they do these days. Kirk Mellish hadn't yet started and the radio mets were largely out of town like with Accuwx. I recall seeing the noon TV newscasts and even then it appeared safe for me to go. So, I made what turned out to be a terrible decision to go. That's key to this becoming an utter traffic disaster because very few schools and businesses closed early thinking they could get in a full day before the snow! This is similar in that regard to 2014, which also started early.

Edit for @SoutheastRidge: I was going to college in midtown and lived just inside the NE perimeter off of I-85.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for the link to a site with great stories! But the main thing lacking in almost all the stories and even in the story of the guy who created the site is that it wasn't predicted by any TV or radio met to start until ~7 PM. I had already been into following wx very closely for years and vividly remember it came in ~4 hours early.

From the webmaster: "As predicted, snow started falling in the afternoon. The ground, frigid from record cold temps, ensured whatever fell, stuck. And fast."

This quote was accurate except it absolutely was not predicted to start in the afternoon. That's the only reason I had decided to go to my 3-6 PM college lab. I actually had contemplated not going to school to play it safe like some folks did. But the public was assured that even the normal rush hour would beat the storm and it was a lab, which was very hard to make up. And remember this was way before the internet/cell phones and even TWC had not quite started. Other than NOAA wx radio, about all we had for up to date wx info were local TV/radio, which didn't have as extensive and timely reporting in advance of wx threats as they do these days. Kirk Mellish hadn't yet started and the radio mets were largely out of town like with Accuwx. I recall seeing the noon TV newscasts and even then it appeared safe for me to go. So, I made what turned out to be a terrible decision to go. That's key to this becoming an utter traffic disaster because very few schools and businesses closed early thinking they could get in a full day before the snow! This is similar in that regard to 2014, which also started early.

Edit for @SoutheastRidge: I was going to college in midtown and lived just inside the NE perimeter off of I-85.
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That’s awesome. Love stories like this.
 
GaWx said:
Did he ever tell you that it came in much earlier than forecasted?
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Yes, he only had a motorcycle to drive at that time and he and my mom just moved in together that December. He went to work which was 2 miles away at 6am. He said it freezing. Dad said it starting to snow after lunch and the office closed at 1pm. By the time he got to his bike he said the snow was falling heavy and sticking on contact. He was stuck. So he walked the 2 miles home in the heavy snow . He said it took him 2 hrs to walk 2 miles on foot. To this day he said it’s never snowed that heavy. The only storm to come close is 93. The snow was supposed to come in around 5 so the plan was to work until 2-3pm.


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Can’t wait for these models to continue to see a colder pattern vs a “torch” I have a feeling we will see a lot of flip floppers in here in the coming days lol
 
If the GFS is to be believed we are headed for Northern stream dominance. Clippers/upslope in the upper south with Jacksonville to Savannah to the Outer Banks being in the game to see frozen because of the cold. Of course it's the GFS at 7+ days.
 
John1122 said:
If the GFS is to be believed we are headed for Northern stream dominance. Clippers/upslope in the upper south with Jacksonville to Savannah to the Outer Banks being in the game to see frozen because of the cold. Of course it's the GFS at 7+ days.
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It’s hard and sorta unlikely, but you could always score with some NS energy that brings a clipper phasing with some SS energy that’s just beginning to move out, it’s happened before
 
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