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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Stormdoc said:
View attachment 29008
GEFS shows what could happen at least for a more favorable pattern with colder anomalies throughout most of North America if we can tip the arctic air a little further south. EPS keeps it bottled up north. From this range it can certainly go either way but there is not a whole lot of difference between a possible wintry pattern and continued stale pacific air
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There’s very little predictability with TPV lobes like the one over Alaska right now, for the moment both the EPS and GEFS drop a chunk of it down towards the Lakes and SE Canada and another piece later digs south along the spine of the Rockies. Perhaps we could squeeze something out in the Jan 5-10th timeframe if a piece of the TPV actually does drop towards the lakes. My original time frame a week or so ago was for us to potentially sneak a storm in sometime around Jan 5-15 could remain relevant if the MJO continues gaining amplitude in subsequent forecasts like it has the last few days
 
From Maxar this morning:

"Shifting Pattern; Eastern Cold Lacks Durability

Models are projecting the establishment of a colder Canadian source region during the 11-15 Day period, even having a round of below normal temperatures into the Midwest and East. The forecast follows suit but is lacking more durable cold air into the Eastern U.S. This lack of durable cooling is a result of the pattern, which gains –PNA characteristics. Historically, the –PNA correlates warm in the South and East this time of year, keeping colder air bottled up in central and western Canada per pattern correlations. The atmospheric –GLAAM has a role in producing this pattern. The MJO is also within the atmospheric background, with the tropical forcing projected to emerge in phase 4 in the 11-15 Day period and perhaps progress eastward into phase 5 in the 16-20 Day. These phases likewise argue against durable cooling into the Eastern Half, while adding warmer risk to the longer range model projections."
 
GaWx said:
From Maxar this morning:

"Shifting Pattern; Eastern Cold Lacks Durability

Models are projecting the establishment of a colder Canadian source region during the 11-15 Day period, even having a round of below normal temperatures into the Midwest and East. The forecast follows suit but is lacking more durable cold air into the Eastern U.S. This lack of durable cooling is a result of the pattern, which gains –PNA characteristics. Historically, the –PNA correlates warm in the South and East this time of year, keeping colder air bottled up in central and western Canada per pattern correlations. The atmospheric –GLAAM has a role in producing this pattern. The MJO is also within the atmospheric background, with the tropical forcing projected to emerge in phase 4 in the 11-15 Day period and perhaps progress eastward into phase 5 in the 16-20 Day. These phases likewise argue against durable cooling into the Eastern Half, while adding warmer risk to the longer range model projections."
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So...February then.


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Haven’t really looked much at models past few days, but interesting evolution on the GEFS. All the cold over AK feeds a series of lows that traverse Canada and setup a transient 50/50 with HP filling in. This appears transient especially with big GOA ridge....that should lead to cold west warm east...-PNA. But, still a chance to theoretically time something perfectly.

4EE9045D-337C-4128-90CE-01CCC57726B8.gif4FC2AB59-136D-44B4-9801-3728BC092099.gif
 
KyloG said:
Haven’t really looked much at models past few days, but interesting evolution on the GEFS. All the cold over AK feeds a series of lows that traverse Canada and setup a transient 50/50 with HP filling in. This appears transient especially with big GOA ridge....that should lead to cold west warm east...-PNA. But, still a chance to theoretically time something perfectly.

View attachment 29011View attachment 29012
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Piggybacking off that and ignoring the fact that this is a 384hr GFS map, a progression such as this would make sense. Vortex rotates away from AK and into Greenland allowing a ridge to creep into the Aleutians and build. Wouldn’t benefit us right away but it would throw enough turmoil into the arctic region to allow the pattern to break down and set us up for a strong finish. Just my couple pennies CE3C592D-96B9-44A8-A5DD-5708F4F0407A.png
 
John1122 said:
If we get that track through 7-8-1-2 we should have something to work with in the next couple of weeks. Big if though and a few years ago during a bad overall pattern we had an 8-1-2 trip that didn't help us at all.
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That appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA/-AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Piggybacking off that and ignoring the fact that this is a 384hr GFS map, a progression such as this would make sense. Vortex rotates away from AK and into Greenland allowing a ridge to creep into the Aleutians and build. Wouldn’t benefit us right away but it would throw enough turmoil into the arctic region to allow the pattern to break down and set us up for a strong finish. Just my couple pennies View attachment 29013
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Yeah, a poleward building Aleutian ridge would work too. Not seeing that though.
 
Gefs has shown this somewhat favorable H5 setup around this timeframe, and little bit of members are presenting winter weather with it 6F08B093-FBFE-483E-BB4A-7547B056EACF.png
 
GaWx said:
That appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA/-AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
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Should be different seeming that we’re definitely not in a La Niña winter
 
Euro shows two big bouts of warmth with maybe some severe weather mixed in .. but the shots are fairly quick and by the end of the run things look fairly cool to cold across the area ... might not have a big winter weather pattern rn but it’s not that stinky tbh
 
GaWx said:
That appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA, and -AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
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I believe I read that it takes 10-20 days for the 7-8-1-2 to propagate to the Eastern U.S anyway, so it's effects from the trip through there would likely be after January 10th. We can work with a +NAO/AO but need a cooperative Pacific at some point.
 
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Rain Cold said:
We watch models. It's what we do. Otherwise, might as well just hold a finger up and see if your knees hurt. Models usually will start to agree on large scale pattern changes. Right now, they agree with a fairly non-wintry pattern for a good while. Eventually, that will change. Maybe. If and when it does, we'll be watching.
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