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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

The 12Z Euro has a freeze to CHS and almost to SAV and GNV on 1/7. That day would average out 6-10 colder than normal in those locations if this verifes.
 
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Big differences at day 8-9 between GFS on the top and Euro below, especially out west and in the pacific. Euro with a beautiful look, especially with 1050 high just east of Rockies and reinforcing high near Yukon. That look is nearly golden along with PV nudging south into Hudson Bay. GFS with a cold shot but far less impressive wintry potential with too much ridging in Midwest and no reenforcing high. Would expect the Euro pattern to play out better down the road as well.
 
The 12Z EPS mean has a freeze for ATL and RDU for 1/7, 8, and 9 with the coldest 1/8-9. It looks mainly dry with only light precip for most areas of the SE once the cold front comes through prior to this (let's see what the bulk of the members show..I bet there will be a few interesting ones) although I wouldn't bet against NW flow snow flurries/showers, especially in the NC mountains as the cold air comes in.
 
The day 5 massive trough has me slightly intrigued.. both Gfs and euro have come into line with a better oriented axis and a deeper trough along with more and more rushing out west for that +PNA ... maybe we could get something sneaky there .... they do say our big storms always show up randomly within 5 days
 
Webberweather53 said:
A significant piece of the TPV starts to drop down towards the Baffin Bay by day 8-9 on the GFS. The evolution of the TPV is still the biggest wildcard the next few weeks and its predictability is severely limited. Just a week or so ago, it appeared that the TPV would park over Alaska, instead it’s going to end up going over Greenland
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Honestly that’s why I made my post the other day about how bad the models have been doing in the LR
 
Per the 12Z EPS, the nice cold snap of 1/7-9 still looks transitory with SER/A to MA for 1/11-13+
 
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Storm5 said:
Good thing the eps has sucked in the LR so far this season


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It hasn't done well, but no model has done well and the EPS still did the best/least bad for the US overall for the 11-15 during 12/1-15 with an average miss of 5.7-5.8 F vs ~7.5 for the GEFS. That's a significant difference.


GFS (FV3):
0Z 7.9
6Z 8.1
12Z 8.3
18Z 8.3

GEFS:
0Z 7.4
6Z 7.3
12Z 7.9
18Z 7.5

EPS:
0Z 5.8
12Z 5.7

- So, although not great by any means, the EPS by a rather wide margin did the best during the first half of Dec.
- The GEFS didn't do that much better than the GFS
- None of these had a warm bias then as even the EPS had a -1.2 F bias in the 11-15:

GEFS -4.8
GFS(FV3) -3.2 (so not quite as bad as the GEFS)
EPS -1.2 (easily the best of these 3 but even it has been slightly too cold overall)

- With the MJO likely headed toward 4-5 and the -AAM about to return after a brief hiatus, I'd be wary about betting against the SER influence after the upcoming cold shot. I mean even the strongly cold biased GEFS and GEPS are showing SE warmth then.

*Edited
 
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deltadog03 said:
So filter out all the noise.... pattern is changing again, how do I know (or think that) well... the models are all over the place.
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Even assuming that after the expected cold period that the SE gets warm again ~1/11-15 (I think the odds are very good at this point), the jury would still be out for the last half of January as that is too far out to see and that warmth could also be transitory, especially if the MJO gets out of 5 and the NAO and AO go back down toward neutral. We'll see.

So, in summary, I'm currently thinking N to A SE 1/1-15 (with higher chance of A deeper in the SE) and up in the air for 1/16-31.
 
deltadog03 said:
Honestly that’s why I made my post the other day about how bad the models have been doing in the LR
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Even in this day and age, there’s almost no predictability when it comes to the tropospheric polar vortex, it truly is a huge unknown in medium-long range forecasting. Seeing it continue to meander around the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the propensity for legitimate, highly amplified ridging in the North Pacific and Alaska which could send it southward in a hurry, should give most a good reason to be very cautious from the 3rd week of January and beyond. It would not take much at all for us to completely flip the switch from a mild pattern being modeled to an extremely cold one reminiscent of Feb 2014 & 2015.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even in this day and age, there’s almost no predictability when it comes to the tropospheric polar vortex, it truly is a huge unknown in medium-long range forecasting. Seeing it continue to meander around the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the propensity for legitimate, highly amplified ridging in the North Pacific and Alaska which could send it southward in a hurry, should give most a good reason to be very cautious from the 3rd week of January and beyond. It would not take much at all for us to completely flip the switch from a mild pattern being modeled to an extremely cold one reminiscent of Feb 2014 & 2015.
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Are you saying I should get a new jacket?
 
January 6-10 looks like a legitimate period for a storm to potentially appear on the horizon over the coming week, thereafter I would hedge my bets that we will be mild for at least a little while thru about the 15th, because these -EPO patterns usually dump cold into the west and Rockies before it shifts eastward (if at all). The second half of January is completely up in the air as far as I’m concerned and I could see how we turn insanely cold or end up with another rendition of last February, there just isn’t much of a difference between the two outcomes in a large scale sense
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even in this day and age, there’s almost no predictability when it comes to the tropospheric polar vortex, it truly is a huge unknown in medium-long range forecasting. Seeing it continue to meander around the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the propensity for legitimate, highly amplified ridging in the North Pacific and Alaska which could send it southward in a hurry, should give most a good reason to be very cautious from the 3rd week of January and beyond. It would not take much at all for us to completely flip the switch from a mild pattern being modeled to an extremely cold one reminiscent of Feb 2014 & 2015.
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Throw in the active southern jet and we could be in for some fun right? Or would that pv disrupt that and maybe shut off moisture supply ?? Kind of hard to believe this big wet pattern we’ve seen for the past several months will suddenly shut off but you know more than me what do u think?
 
Next weekend January 4/5 time frame looks interesting on the gfs. Try to sneak a little piece of energy
 
accu35 said:
Next weekend January 4/5 time frame looks interesting on the gfs. Try to sneak a little piece of energy
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The 5th is my sons 4th birthday. It snowed a little the day he was born and on his 1st and 2nd birthdays. Last year has been the only year it hasnt been wintry on his birthday. Hope we can get back to getting wintry inis bday.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even in this day and age, there’s almost no predictability when it comes to the tropospheric polar vortex, it truly is a huge unknown in medium-long range forecasting. Seeing it continue to meander around the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the propensity for legitimate, highly amplified ridging in the North Pacific and Alaska which could send it southward in a hurry, should give most a good reason to be very cautious from the 3rd week of January and beyond. It would not take much at all for us to completely flip the switch from a mild pattern being modeled to an extremely cold one reminiscent of Feb 2014 & 2015.
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I agree, I still think we are in an unique situation where is could get very cold or torch.
 
18Z GEFS says operation thaw SE 1/11-14 after chill 1/7-8.
 
pcbjr said:
:(
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That's been the model consensus. So, that's nothing really new. And it shouldn't be a surprise with -AAM, MJO moving into 4-5. and still no -AO or -NAO.
The 2nd half of January is up for grabs as Webb said. But folks in the extreme SE like us will have our hands full hoping to get rid of the SER at least until the MJO can get out of the Maritime Continent.
 
Last 3 runs of the GEFS for 00z Jan 4th, look at the drastic changes starting w/ 12z run today. GOA trough, west coast ridge. This is 5-6 days away...EPS was hardly better, not as drastic but similar flip for EPS 00z to 12z today. Absurd...models are struggling with the tail end of the first week of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw such a pattern move at day ~5.5

6b958968f31015cefad65f73d15e7282.gif


Dare I say it...
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Jon said:
Last 3 runs of the GEFS for 00z Jan 4th, look at the drastic changes starting w/ 12z run today. GOA trough, west coast ridge. This is 5-6 days away...EPS was hardly better, not as drastic but similar flip for EPS 00z to 12z today. Absurd...models are struggling with the tail end of the first week of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw such a pattern move at day ~5.5

6b958968f31015cefad65f73d15e7282.gif


Dare I say it...
11d496fc59b3119590cc07c0813a374f.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Looking better for the Tuesday snow.
 
Jon said:
Last 3 runs of the GEFS for 00z Jan 4th, look at the drastic changes starting w/ 12z run today. GOA trough, west coast ridge. This is 5-6 days away...EPS was hardly better, not as drastic but similar flip for EPS 00z to 12z today. Absurd...models are struggling with the tail end of the first week of January. I can’t remember the last time I saw such a pattern move at day ~5.5

6b958968f31015cefad65f73d15e7282.gif


Dare I say it...
11d496fc59b3119590cc07c0813a374f.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah the height changes over the Pacific NW are laughable. Big trough to big ridge on an ensemble mean inside day 6 is inexcusable.
 
What’s driving this -EPO and it’s positioning? I mean it has to be more than “models just don’t know whether to place it to the east or to the west.”CBEF148D-C9E2-41E9-B0C4-B27C3293F085.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What’s driving this -EPO and it’s positioning? I mean it has to be more than “models just don’t know whether to place it to the east or to the west.”View attachment 29217
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Yes I’ve noticed the GEFS consistently for it seems a week now want to let that trough sit on the west coast and just die there, literally the map does not change at all from hr 240-384 without any movement. Either it is right and winter is over until February or it’s consistently off it’s rocker.
 
Stormdoc said:
Yes I’ve noticed the GEFS consistently for it seems a week now want to let that trough sit on the west coast and just die there, literally the map does not change at all from hr 240-384 without any movement. Either it is right and winter is over until February or it’s consistently off it’s rocker.
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Even if right:
- We should have winter ~1/7-9
- Winter could still return at any point after 1/15. The 2nd half of Jan is very much up in the air. Let's see if the MJO could then get its tail out of phase 5 for starters.
 
Stormdoc said:
Yes I’ve noticed the GEFS consistently for it seems a week now want to let that trough sit on the west coast and just die there, literally the map does not change at all from hr 240-384 without any movement. Either it is right and winter is over until February or it’s consistently off it’s rocker.
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Not really. As many of us has stated the mean is smoothed average of the ensembles which can be skewed by member strength and timing. I haven't checked but the GEFS may be seeing one shortwave in a progressive pattern yet because of timing differences be skewing the result over a week span.
 
GaWx said:
Even if right:
- We should have winter ~1/7-9
- Winter could still return at any point after 1/15. The 2nd half of Jan is very much up in the air. Let's see if the MJO could then get its tail out of phase 5 for starters.
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Oh I agree I was just using some hyperbole to express my view of the GEFS. I wouldn’t believe it at all if it were not for Feb 18, which really did have a pattern that did not budge for a month.
 
Arcc said:
Not really. As many of us has stated the mean is smoothed average of the ensembles which can be skewed by member strength and timing. I haven't checked but the GEFS may be seeing one shortwave in a progressive pattern yet because of timing differences be skewing the result over a week span.
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I expect you are right and I have noted over the years that the ensembles tend to repeat and ruminate on the same pattern after day 10
 
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