John1122
Member
Looks good for those of us West of the Apps. Most important thing to me is that it's a very cold run in spots. About all we can hope for is a well timed meeting of cold and moisture for the next couple of weeks.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Looks good for those of us West of the Apps. Most important thing to me is that it's a very cold run in spots. About all we can hope for is a well timed meeting of cold and moisture for the next couple of weeks.
Ilovesnow28
Member
18z gfs is nothing but garbage and more rain events that will definitely verify
Hurtful to look at. The Pacific ridge is just too far west so unless we have a -nao nothing else matters for us. The tpv is actually in a decent spot. Bah humbug
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0Z GEFS: mainly zonal/Pacific air in the extended portion. As I said earlier, we'll be lucky to be near normal the first half of Jan. I'd take that in a heartbeat if given the offer. Keep in mind that the GEFS' cold bias should be adjusted for by assuming it will be quite a bit warmer than the raw output, which is the usual case.
Mr. Golf
Member
Apparently the IOD weakening don't matter and the soi dropping dont matter either. What going on with our pattern? I dont know how we can get a sustainable cold pattern at all this winter. Transient wont cut it unfortunately. Its interesting to have a - pna in a elniño pattern. Is it too early to start the fab feb discussion? Why are we excited about the mjo 8 1 and 2 phases if we get there and its still warm? lol
Jammin’ January! Didn’t see this posted. I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet though. It could be wrong, but probably not
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Mr. Golf
Member
Jimmy, I'm ready for Fab feb discussion. Lets get this mo fo working lol.
not warm anyway: 
Skill scores are trash we toss
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Yesterday’s vs today’s run for New Years .. colder
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Jon
Member
Can’t tell if this is a dig at me but I’m the only one that has mentioned scores of the eps within the last 24 hours.
That post was only directed at someone canceling the next 22 days based on the very last frame of the EPS.
You can literally take any eps run at 360 hours from 15 days ago and compare it’s verification to see just how much changes. Blocking shows up/disappears, ridges are where troughs once were, etc. My point was very simple, to not take a 15 day prog of ANY model literally. I wasn’t saying to never use Day 10-15 on the EPS as a tool to forecast trends in temperatures or patterns.
Also, I’m not angry or mad, just wanted to point out my reasoning in case there was any confusion. I do believe the bad and warm patterns on the modeling, which is why I’m hoping we can get a pattern change started by Mid Jan.
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Here’s my question. Everyone questions the new GFS. Everyone says it’s garbage. Everyone says don’t pay attention to it because it never has a clue and never verifies. If that is the case, then why post what it’s showing? If it’s such a garbage model, why even look at it and complain? If it is only correct when it shows a heat wave, then realize that if it shows cold it won’t verify. I’m serious. It does ZERO good for someone to completely bash someone else’s post that has a GFS forecast (by saying it’s the GFS and don’t trust it) to only then turn around 10 posts later and post a GFS map of your own and say, “Hey look guys. There’s still hope. The GFS says...”
The living and dying with each successive model run is completely uncalled for. It’s getting old seeing it.
The living and dying with each successive model run is completely uncalled for. It’s getting old seeing it.
Agreed. I still believe a lot of it has to do with the fact the gfs is the only model most can see past D10. You add the fact that most of us hope that the next run changed for the better and it doesn't and it's a recipe for sadness. I do wonder what the boards would have been like in some of the ugly 90s winters even in 99/2000 around this time I'm sure the models wouldn't have been that pretty at this time
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I also wonder what boards would look like if we never posted or discussed fantasy maps, even if we know they most likely will not verify.... I guess I see both of your points but at the same time, you wouldn't have much traffic either Lol
As long as no one is actually "bashing" a poster or personally attacking them
That is the problem right there. I've mentioned this before. It makes no sense whatsoever for this, or any model for that matter, to be run past 10 days, because it can't even get the first 10 days right. It is useless and a complete fantasy, and we are better off throwing darts at a dart board to predict the weather at that point. I am a fan of the Euro but I admit that if they ran it past 10 days, it would probably be wrong a majority of the time also. I think they are smart for cutting it off at that point.
I like the idea of the ensembles running past 10 days though and the op stopping at D10, at least from a pattern recognition standpoint or an idea of the direction we may be headed.
I refuse to let this ruin my weekend, so I need to begin my hiatus before the 12z suite. But I have a question. What's causing that huge ridge in the GOA? It can't be the MJO because it'll be in favorable phases and the ridge persists. I wouldn't think it's the strong PV keeping it in place. As we know from following hurricanes lower pressures cant penetrate ridges. So knowing that the ridge may be keeping the tPV wound tight and at the pole. SST'S maybe?