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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Exactly right and though many keep saying models don't have a clue lol they have been right so far. We keep saying they have no clue and it's going to be April. Yes we still have a long way to go but in the SE you have a few chances. Been waiting for pattern flip on models for weeks. Before long it will be Fab Feb. Delayed but not denied.
 
John1122 said:
I believe I read that it takes 10-20 days for the 7-8-1-2 to propagate to the Eastern U.S anyway, so it's effects from the trip through there would likely be after January 10th. We can work with a +NAM/AO but need a cooperative Pacific at some point.
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My own research and maps I’ve seen for years show that there’s no lag and that the cold phases are called “cold phases” because they average cold right when they’re occurring, not 10-20 days later. On the same token, the warm phases are warm right when they’re occurring.

But other factors seem to be overwhelming the official MJO phases with -AAM apparently a big factor regardless of MJO phase. Add to that a very strong +AO and a +NAO and it is going to be very tough to get cold to come in more than in transitory fashion. I’d be happy with the transitory cold shots that models have.

IF the SE can somehow average close to normal in the first half of Jan, that would be a major victory. The place for persistent cold is once again the northern tier, especially N Plains and upper Midwest. I had been hoping that finally would change but no dice right now.
 
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GaWx said:
My own research and maps I’ve seen for years show that there’s no lag and that the cold phases are called “cold phases” because they average cold right when they’re occurring, not 10-20 days later. On the same token, the warm phases are warm right when they’re occurring.

But other factors seem to be overwhelming the official MJO phases with -AAM apparently a big factor regardless of MJO phase. Add to that a very strong +AO and a +NAO and it is going to be very tough to get cold to come in more than in transitory fashion. I’d be happy with the transitory cold shots that models have.

IF the SE can somehow average close to normal in the first half of Jan, that would be a major victory. The place for persistent cold is once again the northern tier, especially N Plains and upper Midwest. I had been hoping that finally would change but no dice right now.
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Never knew that, just read the Findlay paper that said the following.

In conclusion, the MJO is associated with substantial variability in continental U.S. temperatures and precipitation. This signal has been associated with a response to MJO convection in the atmospheric circulation that is expressed well in the streamfunction field. Results suggest that this signal takes about two weeks to reach the U.S
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I am likely misinterpreting what Findlay is stating here, he talks about MJO effects taking 12 days to reach the West Coast in the paper as well.
 
John1122 said:
Never knew that, just read the Findlay paper that said the following.



I am likely misinterpreting what Findlay is stating here, he talks about MJO effects taking 12 days to reach the West Coast in the paper as well.
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I’ve always read that MJO benefits is lagged at least 10 days.

The paper I referenced recently in one of my post speaks to a statistically significant negative temp anomalies over the east coast occurring 10-20 days after Phase 7, and that can’t be argued as it’s been proven to be statistically significant. Now, whether or not the data they used happened to show a propagation from phase 7 to 8-1-2 within 10-20 days is unknown at least by me, but the way the MJO typically behaves it’s believable that a good amount of those years studied had such behavior (7-8-1-2,etc)...so that backs up Larry’s statement of his studies of no lag when currently in the cold phases. Theoretically, that would line up well with the Baxter et al. Paper and his own research.


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Jon said:
I’ve always read that MJO benefits is lagged at least 10 days.

The paper I referenced recently in one of my post speaks to a statistically significant negative temp anomalies over the east coast occurring 10-20 days after Phase 7, and that can’t be argued as it’s been proven to be statistically significant. Now, whether or not the data they used happened to show a propagation from phase 7 to 8-1-2 within 10-20 days is unknown at least by me, but the way the MJO typically behaves it’s believable that a good amount of those years studied had such behavior (7-8-1-2,etc)...so that backs up Larry’s statement of his studies of no lag when currently in the cold phases. Theoretically, that would line up well with the Baxter et al. Paper and his own research.
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Jon,
Yeah, perhaps that is the key based on average amount of time spent in going from phase 7 to phase 2 and with the MJO often going 7-8-1-2. 20 days may be a reach because 20 days after a phase 7 should imo be on average past phase 2. But 10 days for sure and maybe even 15 would seem plausible to still not have gotten past phase 2 from phase 7 in most cases.

The MJO effects lagging 10+ days really doesn't sound right to me. All maps that show the cold (warm) temps for phase 8 (5), for example, are based on the temps that average cold (warm) right then and there, not 10 days later. And my own research confirmed this.
 
One constant over the past 20 years or so is the Jan +PNA. Since 2001 we have had 1 (2008) Jan with a -PNA.

It sure looks like we are going to have a great shot at another rare Jan -PNA.

F9FA2917-7873-4BB2-AF3A-F746EA6B9590.png38B9BDDB-670A-4C71-A9ED-4B3C34382896.png41FA161E-43BC-4E64-9CE5-CAB768240E9B.png
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Exactly right and though many keep saying models don't have a clue lol they have been right so far. We keep saying they have no clue and it's going to be April. Yes we still have a long way to go but in the SE you have a few chances. Been waiting for pattern flip on models for weeks. Before long it will be Fab Feb. Delayed but not denied.
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Am I dreaming or have we not seen the models fluctuate on long range from cold to warm to cold to warm several times this month?? Sure you can cherry pick one run or two and say it has been consistent but clearly this has not been the case. The endless shift from negative to positive on this board based on the varying model runs has been incredible. Now sooner or later one WILL get it right because the law of averages says so but I would not bet any money on which one it would be. I still think when all is said and done ( as I said in October) we will end up slightly above normal for the winter in the SE but I am not depending on the latest model run to verify it. I am not telling anyone not to look at the models because I do it too, but to live and die and make a final judgement on one 3-4 weeks away is suspect, whether it shows hot or cold
 
KyloG said:
Jan 2008 -PNA made a lot of sense, strong Nina with strong -PDO. We don’t have that now which makes me think this
upcoming -PNA will be short lived.

View attachment 29021
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I look forward to strong Ninas and Ninos. At least we have a better idea of the outcomes.


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No wonder no one has mentioned the EPS. Not sure where everyone gets the models are flip flopping. If you follow the EPS it's been steady with this crap look. I'm not saying it's right. But if that's what the pattern looks like on Jan 10th how could anybody feel good at that point about Jan? You don't have that on the 10th and be in a good pattern a week later. Just doesn't happen.Screenshot_20191226-170857_Chrome.jpg
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
No wonder no one has mentioned the EPS. Not sure where everyone gets the models are flip flopping. If you follow the EPS it's been steady with this crap look. I'm not saying it's right. But if that's what the pattern looks like on Jan 10th how could anybody feel good at that point about Jan? You don't have that on the 10th and be in a good pattern a week later. Just doesn't happen.View attachment 29022
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Ridging north of Hawaii. Pac jet setting records. Mjo wanting to stay in the warm phases. +AO, +NAO, -PNA. What more could go wrong if you want cold and snow?
 
Higher elevations up around Boone (Banner Elk, Sugar, Beech) with a shot at some NW flow middle of next week. Gotta crawl before we can walk52A0682B-0468-4410-B925-027E70F22DB6.png
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
No wonder no one has mentioned the EPS. Not sure where everyone gets the models are flip flopping. If you follow the EPS it's been steady with this crap look. I'm not saying it's right. But if that's what the pattern looks like on Jan 10th how could anybody feel good at that point about Jan? You don't have that on the 10th and be in a good pattern a week later. Just doesn't happen.View attachment 29022
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Not sure I agree with discounting a pattern 22 days from now based on a 15-day model solution, even if it is the EPS.

The euro has a verification score of <0.5 at Day 10, now imagine the eps verification score at Day 15 in the nhemi... probably <0.3
3bda768427de6da38d82e26e586583fc.jpg


I know it looks bleak, but there’s still some hope especially if we’re talking about after mid January.


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
No wonder no one has mentioned the EPS. Not sure where everyone gets the models are flip flopping. If you follow the EPS it's been steady with this crap look. I'm not saying it's right. But if that's what the pattern looks like on Jan 10th how could anybody feel good at that point about Jan? You don't have that on the 10th and be in a good pattern a week later. Just doesn't happen.View attachment 29022
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agreed, models have gone from bad to worse. Like you said, that will take time to get out of. Not ready to punt the last half of Jan yet, wanted to see how models evolve first week of Jan.
 
Jon said:
Not sure I agree with discounting a pattern 22 days from now based on a 15-day model solution, even if it is the EPS.

The euro has a verification score of
3bda768427de6da38d82e26e586583fc.jpg


I know it looks bleak, but there’s still some hope especially if we’re talking about after mid January.


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Let's hope. Just like no two storms are alike hopefully no two winters are alike. But what we're staring at and where we were at this time last year is cringe worthy. I didn't mind last year because of the December snow. Anything more was bonus snow. But if this year follows last year from this point forward we'd get blanked.
 
KyloG said:
agreed, models have gone from bad to worse. Like you said, that will take time to get out of. Not ready to punt the last half of Jan yet, wanted to see how models evolve first week of Jan.
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Exactly. That's as bad as it can get so improvements are going to happen within the next few cycles. But its noteworthy that after a few encouraging runs this look quickly reappears.
 
DarkKnight said:
Amazed no one is talking about how much better 18z gfs is looking on mid to long range vs a few runs ago. View attachment 29024
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Looks good for those of us West of the Apps. Most important thing to me is that it's a very cold run in spots. About all we can hope for is a well timed meeting of cold and moisture for the next couple of weeks.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
No wonder no one has mentioned the EPS. Not sure where everyone gets the models are flip flopping. If you follow the EPS it's been steady with this crap look. I'm not saying it's right. But if that's what the pattern looks like on Jan 10th how could anybody feel good at that point about Jan? You don't have that on the 10th and be in a good pattern a week later. Just doesn't happen.View attachment 29022
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Hurtful to look at. The Pacific ridge is just too far west so unless we have a -nao nothing else matters for us. The tpv is actually in a decent spot. Bah humbug

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0Z GEFS: mainly zonal/Pacific air in the extended portion. As I said earlier, we'll be lucky to be near normal the first half of Jan. I'd take that in a heartbeat if given the offer. Keep in mind that the GEFS' cold bias should be adjusted for by assuming it will be quite a bit warmer than the raw output, which is the usual case.
 
Apparently the IOD weakening don't matter and the soi dropping dont matter either. What going on with our pattern? I dont know how we can get a sustainable cold pattern at all this winter. Transient wont cut it unfortunately. Its interesting to have a - pna in a elniño pattern. Is it too early to start the fab feb discussion? Why are we excited about the mjo 8 1 and 2 phases if we get there and its still warm? lol
 
Jammin’ January! Didn’t see this posted. I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet though. It could be wrong, but probably notB546E56B-CD2C-4D15-92D1-525B08FD5A90.png739F4F6A-3192-4354-B8F7-C67C84BA05B4.png
 
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Wow that is one very warm 0Z EPS! I mean absolutely fugly if you don't like warmth! It literally has a SE torch about every day through 1/11 (end of run) THE warmest run yet!
 
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Nick_boynton_ said:
Skill scores are trash we toss
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Can’t tell if this is a dig at me but I’m the only one that has mentioned scores of the eps within the last 24 hours.

That post was only directed at someone canceling the next 22 days based on the very last frame of the EPS.

You can literally take any eps run at 360 hours from 15 days ago and compare it’s verification to see just how much changes. Blocking shows up/disappears, ridges are where troughs once were, etc. My point was very simple, to not take a 15 day prog of ANY model literally. I wasn’t saying to never use Day 10-15 on the EPS as a tool to forecast trends in temperatures or patterns.

Also, I’m not angry or mad, just wanted to point out my reasoning in case there was any confusion. I do believe the bad and warm patterns on the modeling, which is why I’m hoping we can get a pattern change started by Mid Jan.

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Here’s my question. Everyone questions the new GFS. Everyone says it’s garbage. Everyone says don’t pay attention to it because it never has a clue and never verifies. If that is the case, then why post what it’s showing? If it’s such a garbage model, why even look at it and complain? If it is only correct when it shows a heat wave, then realize that if it shows cold it won’t verify. I’m serious. It does ZERO good for someone to completely bash someone else’s post that has a GFS forecast (by saying it’s the GFS and don’t trust it) to only then turn around 10 posts later and post a GFS map of your own and say, “Hey look guys. There’s still hope. The GFS says...”

The living and dying with each successive model run is completely uncalled for. It’s getting old seeing it.
 
tramadoc said:
Here’s my question. Everyone questions the new GFS. Everyone says it’s garbage. Everyone says don’t pay attention to it because it never has a clue and never verifies. If that is the case, then why post what it’s showing? If it’s such a garbage model, why even look at it and complain? If it is only correct when it shows a heat wave, then realize that if it shows cold it won’t verify. I’m serious. It does ZERO good for someone to completely bash someone else’s post that has a GFS forecast (by saying it’s the GFS and don’t trust it) to only then turn around 10 posts later and post a GFS map of your own and say, “Hey look guys. There’s still hope. The GFS says...”

The living and dying with each successive model run is completely uncalled for. It’s getting old seeing it.
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Agreed. I still believe a lot of it has to do with the fact the gfs is the only model most can see past D10. You add the fact that most of us hope that the next run changed for the better and it doesn't and it's a recipe for sadness. I do wonder what the boards would have been like in some of the ugly 90s winters even in 99/2000 around this time I'm sure the models wouldn't have been that pretty at this time

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SD said:
Agreed. I still believe a lot of it has to do with the fact the gfs is the only model most can see past D10. You add the fact that most of us hope that the next run changed for the better and it doesn't and it's a recipe for sadness. I do wonder what the boards would have been like in some of the ugly 90s winters even in 99/2000 around this time I'm sure the models wouldn't have been that pretty at this time

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I also wonder what boards would look like if we never posted or discussed fantasy maps, even if we know they most likely will not verify.... I guess I see both of your points but at the same time, you wouldn't have much traffic either Lol

As long as no one is actually "bashing" a poster or personally attacking them
 
SD said:
Agreed. I still believe a lot of it has to do with the fact the gfs is the only model most can see past D10. You add the fact that most of us hope that the next run changed for the better and it doesn't and it's a recipe for sadness. I do wonder what the boards would have been like in some of the ugly 90s winters even in 99/2000 around this time I'm sure the models wouldn't have been that pretty at this time

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That is the problem right there. I've mentioned this before. It makes no sense whatsoever for this, or any model for that matter, to be run past 10 days, because it can't even get the first 10 days right. It is useless and a complete fantasy, and we are better off throwing darts at a dart board to predict the weather at that point. I am a fan of the Euro but I admit that if they ran it past 10 days, it would probably be wrong a majority of the time also. I think they are smart for cutting it off at that point.
 
mrdaddyman said:
That is the problem right there. I've mentioned this before. It makes no sense whatsoever for this, or any model for that matter, to be run past 10 days, because it can't even get the first 10 days right. It is useless and a complete fantasy, and we are better off throwing darts at a dart board to predict the weather at that point. I am a fan of the Euro but I admit that if they ran it past 10 days, it would probably be wrong a majority of the time. I think they are smart for cutting it off at that point.
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I like the idea of the ensembles running past 10 days though and the op stopping at D10, at least from a pattern recognition standpoint or an idea of the direction we may be headed.
 
I refuse to let this ruin my weekend, so I need to begin my hiatus before the 12z suite. But I have a question. What's causing that huge ridge in the GOA? It can't be the MJO because it'll be in favorable phases and the ridge persists. I wouldn't think it's the strong PV keeping it in place. As we know from following hurricanes lower pressures cant penetrate ridges. So knowing that the ridge may be keeping the tPV wound tight and at the pole. SST'S maybe?
 
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