pcbjr
Member
Nothing worth witing home about, but since we're sans Wiki right now, this is a good model comparison site if anyone is interested ... http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/
Last edited:
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
00z Gfs continues the same storm signal in the future around 240 hours ... we could score but timing has to be right .. then again it’s the Gfs blah blah blah all that hogwash
FWIW the cmc also has a similar type of look as the Gfs ... maybe there will really be a storm to track this time
Last few runs of the Euro has also been showing a big phaser off and on. Usually doesn't work out, but fun to track and model watch.
*Fantasy* 1055 high on the Colorado/Wyoming border and this is what it translates to..i’m afraid the writing is on the wall for the first 2/3 of January. There’s just nothing there to work with, although I would expect a BIG marginal mountain snow event sometime just before mid January. 
Yep, euro was a complete Fumpster dire, no good 850s in sight through 240 hours, that setup at the end was to warm, like almost all gefs members show (just rain), it also backed off ridging up towards the Aleutians, it’s seemed to be biased towards that to, and we also have a 591 DM ridge sighting on the GFS lurking towards our south, that active southern stream barreling into the SE is saving us from torching by knocking back ridging and providing cool/stale air afterwards
If there’s any good news, it’s this eh pattern the GEFS is hinting at around hour 300, not the best but things can be done with this I guess, it’s maddening just seeing that progressiveness around AK, you really just wanna see ridging up there crashing down that TPV or splitting that TPV 
If you haven't looked at any of the models overnight, don't bother, unless you just want to see what you already know. I'm hopeful that by the 3rd week or so in January, we'll start to see at least a few signs of winter coming back at some point.
MichaelJ
Member
Not really worried about whether the models show cold or warm 4 weeks ahead, they will fluctuate daily and even run to run as we have seen so many times already. The models are having a terrible time trying to figure out where the cold should be place in the US and I expect this to continue. Moral of the story is, "don't worry, be happy" quit living run to run or even day to day on the models
I am just checking daily to see when we may be moving away from a progressive pattern. In the heart of winter we can score without everything lining up just right, but we almost always need a little meriodinal flow or some jet stream buckling of some sort. Just a well time shortwave along with popping a PNA out west can do the trick. If the TPV just sinks a little to the Hudson Bay, this should give us some cold air to tap along with hopefully buckling the flow out west.
We watch models. It's what we do. Otherwise, might as well just hold a finger up and see if your knees hurt. Models usually will start to agree on large scale pattern changes. Right now, they agree with a fairly non-wintry pattern for a good while. Eventually, that will change. Maybe. If and when it does, we'll be watching.
GEFS shows what could happen at least for a more favorable pattern with colder anomalies throughout most of North America if we can tip the arctic air a little further south. EPS keeps it bottled up north. From this range it can certainly go either way but there is not a whole lot of difference between a possible wintry pattern and continued stale pacific air
Not sure they are having a terrible time...Models are in good agreement over the next couple weeks with the large hemispheric pattern. But I guess you could have somewhat of a point about one thing...we probably won’t see much change in the model runs over the next week or so.
Preaching to people on a weather discussion forum to not look at the models is like telling someone at a football game to not watch the game because your team is losing.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah the models are all we have.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
EPS MJO trends. Will be interesting to watch how this evolves...does it make the full trip and does it really evolve into high amp ph4/5. I'm weenie hoping it trends to low amp ph 4/5, or even better would be be follow what it did in Dec and dives back into COD before 4.
According to @GaWx research, inside the COD in phase 8 (I believe) is when we get our best cold in the SE. But boy, the upcoming pattern portrayed doesn't seem to show much cold making it down here, other than a transient shot ot two.
But I do wonder how much stock we can put in the MJO forecasts anyway. The other day, it was shooting straight vertical in Phase 6.
tennessee storm
Member
Really. Just go outside enjoy the early spring we have ... getting a lot outside work done myself
It's a beautiful day for pruning and mulching. Going to mow up the last of the leaves, so when we build a snowman later, it won't have leaves all in it. Then, it will be time to play some cornhole!
tennessee storm
Member
I was thinking same thing ... get leaves mulched and up good for our snow
️
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS is far from infallible with the MJO especially when it’s being initialized over the West Pacific or Western Hemisphere. It usually has a low amplitude bias and most nwp also have a low amplitude bias that gets larger with range esp when the MJO is near the COD or has weak amplitude. A coherent convectively coupled kelvin wave is propagating from the central pacific into the Western Hemisphere right now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There’s very little predictability with TPV lobes like the one over Alaska right now, for the moment both the EPS and GEFS drop a chunk of it down towards the Lakes and SE Canada and another piece later digs south along the spine of the Rockies. Perhaps we could squeeze something out in the Jan 5-10th timeframe if a piece of the TPV actually does drop towards the lakes. My original time frame a week or so ago was for us to potentially sneak a storm in sometime around Jan 5-15 could remain relevant if the MJO continues gaining amplitude in subsequent forecasts like it has the last few days
RollTide18
Member
I was thinking same thing ... get leaves mulched and up good for our March Flizzard
Fixed it for you
.
From Maxar this morning:
"Shifting Pattern; Eastern Cold Lacks Durability
Models are projecting the establishment of a colder Canadian source region during the 11-15 Day period, even having a round of below normal temperatures into the Midwest and East. The forecast follows suit but is lacking more durable cold air into the Eastern U.S. This lack of durable cooling is a result of the pattern, which gains –PNA characteristics. Historically, the –PNA correlates warm in the South and East this time of year, keeping colder air bottled up in central and western Canada per pattern correlations. The atmospheric –GLAAM has a role in producing this pattern. The MJO is also within the atmospheric background, with the tropical forcing projected to emerge in phase 4 in the 11-15 Day period and perhaps progress eastward into phase 5 in the 16-20 Day. These phases likewise argue against durable cooling into the Eastern Half, while adding warmer risk to the longer range model projections."
"Shifting Pattern; Eastern Cold Lacks Durability
Models are projecting the establishment of a colder Canadian source region during the 11-15 Day period, even having a round of below normal temperatures into the Midwest and East. The forecast follows suit but is lacking more durable cold air into the Eastern U.S. This lack of durable cooling is a result of the pattern, which gains –PNA characteristics. Historically, the –PNA correlates warm in the South and East this time of year, keeping colder air bottled up in central and western Canada per pattern correlations. The atmospheric –GLAAM has a role in producing this pattern. The MJO is also within the atmospheric background, with the tropical forcing projected to emerge in phase 4 in the 11-15 Day period and perhaps progress eastward into phase 5 in the 16-20 Day. These phases likewise argue against durable cooling into the Eastern Half, while adding warmer risk to the longer range model projections."
ATLwxfan
Member
tennessee storm
Member
But the sun angle ... lol
No, I’d say: So, 2nd half of January then.
If today’s GFS is right we won’t have to wait that long. Of course, that is a big “if”.
John1122
Member
If we get that track through 7-8-1-2 we should have something to work with in the next couple of weeks. Big if though and a few years ago during a bad overall pattern we had an 8-1-2 trip that didn't help us at all.
Haven’t really looked much at models past few days, but interesting evolution on the GEFS. All the cold over AK feeds a series of lows that traverse Canada and setup a transient 50/50 with HP filling in. This appears transient especially with big GOA ridge....that should lead to cold west warm east...-PNA. But, still a chance to theoretically time something perfectly.
Piggybacking off that and ignoring the fact that this is a 384hr GFS map, a progression such as this would make sense. Vortex rotates away from AK and into Greenland allowing a ridge to creep into the Aleutians and build. Wouldn’t benefit us right away but it would throw enough turmoil into the arctic region to allow the pattern to break down and set us up for a strong finish. Just my couple pennies
That appears highly unlikely per model forecasts that agree to quickly bring it back to the warmer phases. Couple that with +AO, +NAO, -PNA/-AAM and you’re not going to get more than a cold shot here or there with a warmer than average SE overall favored at least through 1/15 or so. This has a La Niña look to me.
Let’s hope the second half of January is different.
Last edited:
Yeah, a poleward building Aleutian ridge would work too. Not seeing that though.
Gefs has shown this somewhat favorable H5 setup around this timeframe, and little bit of members are presenting winter weather with it 
Should be different seeming that we’re definitely not in a La Niña winter
Euro shows two big bouts of warmth with maybe some severe weather mixed in .. but the shots are fairly quick and by the end of the run things look fairly cool to cold across the area ... might not have a big winter weather pattern rn but it’s not that stinky tbh
-AAM tends to favor -PNA/La Niña pattern. Hopefully this changes for second half of January.
NoSnowATL
Member
Feels like we keep switching from a Nino to Nina pattern. Would that be because we are weak ENSO?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That seems like a reasonable guess. But we’ve also been having a predominant -SOI. #conflictingIndicators
Perhaps the extra Indo-Pacific centered warmth is screwing up things.
John1122
Member
I believe I read that it takes 10-20 days for the 7-8-1-2 to propagate to the Eastern U.S anyway, so it's effects from the trip through there would likely be after January 10th. We can work with a +NAO/AO but need a cooperative Pacific at some point.
Last edited:
