Ron Burgundy
Member
If that ULL were to drop 150 miles west and tap the gulf, what would be the implications for the Deep South?
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
It would pull poleward as a Miller A..but that’s neither here nor there. It’s off the table. Too progressive a pattern. We’ll get another Miller A bomb one of these days, but this ain’t it
More changes are probably going to happen in the next 48 hours since our energy is still out over water.
Stormlover
Member
Promising....
If you look at the shape of the trough, it's way to positively tilted. No moisture advection. If it were to do what you said and tap the Gulf, you'd see more of an outbreak of precipitation. Jimmy is right in that it would probably spawn a surface low farther west. I think it would still translate east, given the progressive pattern.
I'd like to see it continue to dig and close off more and maybe even become detached from the flow, but I don't think we'll get there. In the end, we're pretty much grasping at straws here for areas outside of the immediate coastal sections. But it's all we got.
Personally, I think it would take more than these incremental steps that we're seeing over the time we have remaining. We are getting to the point where we need something to be really modeled wrong, if we're going to be in for a surprise. That's my opinion, based on observing systems like this through the years. But it doesn't mean I will turn out right. It's weather, and the uncertainty makes it fun.
FWIW, NAM little more consolidated and a touch west with our energy
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Meh... in the end it really means nothing. Gonna take something major, like the whole flow shifted west about 500 miles to allow this to get significant precip inland. Its painful to watch, nothing slowing down the flow, positive tilt all the way to the coast and then way ots....boom. Every runFWIW, NAM little more consolidated and a touch west with our energy
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In the end your right...there really isn't any moisture, no WAA to help with that process. I still find it funny that the euro is still the strongest solution with the energy....but damn..I feel like this will be a wasted opportunity....
Fountainguy97
Member
nailed it. So close but so far. In this case it’s not the simple NW trend but we need the entire pattern to just shift west significantly.
We needed that 7-9 days out and we still need that this close.
It’s not going to happen. Still some flakes could fly for some coastal sections though.
This makes me want to scream....
Mr. Golf
Member
I know most of you have heard of ISOTHERM from American Weather. He is really smart with weather patterns. He now is basically saying winter is over for most of us outside the west and upper midwest. He said it dont matter what phase the mjo is in that it will still be warm. I am thinking march will be balls to the walls cold most likely.
Yep, ICON is continuing to trend closer to getting back to the coast. Here’s 500 mb:
Compare to the prior run:
Whats interesting to me is how far away the SFC low is to the upper support.
Ridge axis a little further west on the GFS so far.
What we have going for us is he nailed the first half of winter. Odds he nails the second half is not near as likely. Although, betting warm and rainy is a pretty good bet. It would only take one good storm to change this winter for the better
wave is a little slower as well too
ATLwxfan
Member
Saying winter is over is fashionable given current model trends. Hardly a hot take, pun intended.
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And fail. Lol
While in the end it's still a failure, you can once again see how the GFS is late to the party... huge shifts but all it does is get it close to other modeling
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Might have to drive down to Cape Hatteras
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BHS1975
Member
Might have to drive down to Cape Hatteras
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Looks like some sound effect snow.
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Ilovesnow28
Member
What's it showing @accu35
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Anyone order a monster +EPO? Hope you like mild pacific air and lots of rain!
The extremely large WP MJO event obviously has a lot to do w/ this.
The extremely large WP MJO event obviously has a lot to do w/ this.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Will this ever end?? Fr omg
Brent
Member
Yay more rain
BHS1975
Member
Lol I knew this storm was not coming back once it was hour 172 and getting more suppressed on Globals/ENs, had that look, SFC low won’t get going until it’s at least neutrally tilted, that’s why it’s far from the ULL
Well, this is clearly not going to make it back like we all want....Either way, looks like a cold start to the week. Obviously the flow is very progressive and it is what it is. On to the next one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This storm is clearly done for, no chance even for coastal sections of the Carolinas & SE US.
Did I also mention that we're running a solid +10F anomaly in the first half of January?
Did I also mention that we're running a solid +10F anomaly in the first half of January?
I wanna bet we’re gonna end off at 4-7 AN from that big ol cool down, which is still nonsense, I wonder with the MJO possibly returning in bad phases, we’re gonna start seeing a GOA ridge signal soon
Even our 3 day cold snap has moderated a lot from what it once was. We were supposed to have temps struggling to make it above freezing with lows in the teens and now we are looking at 40s for highs and almost pushing 50. This winter blows.
Stormlover
Member
surprised to see this for me at Huntsville Mon night/Tue am
if the track indeed holds we would not be surprised to see very
light snow showers across the TN Valley
if the track indeed holds we would not be surprised to see very
light snow showers across the TN Valley
Soooo the last few frames of the NAM.....
So wait, did the CFS finally flip?
I was hoping we could make a run at that salmon color at the top of the scale
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pants bursting winter!
Low solar activity + modoki El Nino must = blocking galore! Maybe we haven't sloshed the tub enough.
Low solar activity + modoki El Nino must = blocking galore! Maybe we haven't sloshed the tub enough.
Just look at all of the positive anomalies in the US and North America. Maybe 10-20% cold? I thought the west would have been cold but even they are normal to above. I guess it is a combination of the new base state plus the vigorously positive AO. El Niño’s ain’t like they used to be.