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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Nick_boynton_ said:
Can someone explain what is the difference between the euro control and the operational euro??
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The Euro Control is the Main ECMWF data set. The OP runs off of the Control, so essentially the OP is about the same thing, but higher res and only runs out to 240hrs, while the control runs up to 360hrs. The EPS also runs off of the Control. Think of it as a family tree. The Control is the Parent and the OP and EPS are its kids.
 
The control also uses the same initialized conditions as the operational ECMWF whereas the rest of the ensemble members used perturbed conditions. Every ensemble (GEFS, GGEM, etc,) has a control run. Generally speaking, I don’t think there’s any value to looking at the control run aside from seeing snow porn and entertainment (which is what we’re all here for, so you know damn well I look at them, LOL).

This upcoming period looks exciting. Will we score? For a lot of us, probably in some capacity, but who knows in what degree, and we very well could strike out. A good pattern is no guarantee of anything. We live in the South.
 
superjames1992 said:
The control also uses the same initialized conditions as the operational ECMWF whereas the rest of the ensemble members used perturbed conditions. Every ensemble (GEFS, GGEM, etc,) has a control run. Generally speaking, I don’t think there’s any value to looking at the control run aside from seeing snow porn and entertainment (which is what we’re all here for, so you know damn well I look at them, LOL).

This upcoming period looks exciting. Will we score? For a lot of us, probably in some capacity, but who knows in what degree, and we very well could strike out. A good pattern is no guarantee of anything. We live in the South.
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And you and all of us know there's still no guarantee we'll even get the "good" (as in BN) pattern down in the SE but at least it is almost definite we'll get something better than the current torch.
 
GaWx said:
And you and all of us know there's still no guarantee we'll even get the "good" (as in BN) pattern down in the SE but at least it is almost definite we'll get something better than the current torch.
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Personally, I am a good law abiding citizen, but I do know of some folks that might just be willing to sell the GFS, the GEFS, and the EURO something brewed up on the side for a 3 week round-the-clock happy hour ...
 
Uh what.
GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_324.png
GEFSSE_prec_snens_336.png

Such weird members
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Euro Control is the Main ECMWF data set. The OP runs off of the Control, so essentially the OP is about the same thing, but higher res and only runs out to 240hrs, while the control runs up to 360hrs. The EPS also runs off of the Control. Think of it as a family tree. The Control is the Parent and the OP and EPS are its kids.
Click to expand...

I could be wrong but I always understood it as the operational run being the first “run”.

The operational is then ran at a lower resolution on purpose as to try and “smooth” it out a bit, which is the control.

Then, 50 ensemble runs are created from the low resolution operational aka Control, which is then averaged with the control to make the EPS mean.


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Jon said:
I could be wrong but I always understood it as the operational run being the first “run”.

The operational is then ran at a lower resolution on purpose as to try and “smooth” it out a bit, which is the control.

Then, 50 ensemble runs are created from the low resolution operational aka Control, which is then averaged with the control to make the EPS mean.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I believe this is correct.
 
Could be nothing but the models have been showing a deep south wintry threat in a couple of weeks which would be when we usually get these type of events.
 
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