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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

I'd bet it's colder in those areas because they have had precip and saturated the surface. If you want to know if your trending warmer/colder, you should really be comparing the wetbulb.
TW
 
When that front-end forcing moves over the column becomes nearly saturated from top to bottom (per the soundings). In its wake there is less potential for subfreezing (or well-below-freezing) wet bulbs for the main event. Something to watch, I suppose.
 
Wxrisk says he thinks Nam is too warm aloft, plus not reliable at this range. I agree that it’s not reliable, but it could be right with the temps aloft.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Wxrisk says he thinks Nam is too warm aloft, plus not reliable at this range. I agree that it’s not reliable, but it could be right with the temps aloft.
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This is the nams best time. I think it will crush the storm TBH. The temperatures are always pretty accurate on the nam. Now precip is another story
 
The 2m dew points do something weird in the 12z 3km nam. It's like a burp of warmer moist air gets trapped on the eastern side of the Mtns and gets pushed north. At hour 38 With no precip being depicted Spartenburg, Sc has a dew of 24, Hickory NC. has a dew of 33, and Burlington, Nc 16.

What's going on here?
 
Really depends on your location. Temps around my neck of the woods are very very close to freezing. One thing I am noticing is those DPs are really low prior to the event and that makes me wonder about this. I think this is going to be one of those systems where we honestly aren't going to know much until the day of by looking at DPs and how warm temps get in the day. Is precip moving in faster than modeled (which has been the case so far).
 
LukeBarrette said:
Should we trust Nam with CAD at this point?! it’s the only model here in Roanoke that is giving me significant icing. Not to mention 3km gives weak precip.
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Weak precip seems to be a thing with the NAMs even at this range. Soundings look ok on the 3K until noonish here but if the NAM does not trend a little colder, I would bet on mixing earlier than that. And yes, trust the warm nose on the NAM. 1611932913004.png
 
1611933007376.png.
This is probably the best guess as of right now where I could see some form of ICE in this scenario. Don't know how much, when and if anybody switches over at any point just. The best bet is likely the NW piedmont and the closer you get to the escarpment. DPs are really low and temps are in the mid 30's for most south of I40 which makes this a very difficult thing to pinpoint on where and how far south the cold air infiltrates.
 
smast16 said:
The 2m dew points do something weird in the 12z 3km nam. It's like a burp of warmer moist air gets trapped on the eastern side of the Mtns and gets pushed north. At hour 38 With no precip being depicted Spartenburg, Sc has a dew of 24, Hickory NC. has a dew of 33, and Burlington, Nc 16.

What's going on here?
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I think it has to do with the temp getting close to wet bulb under the front-end-band.
 
FallsLake said:
Lets hope the RDPS does not win this model war. It has me at 1.25" of freezing rain; but that's not the worse location. Looks like northern Orange / southern Person counties would "jack pot" (in a bad way) at ~2.25". Terrible outcome for something like that...
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I wouldn’t be worried about them totals of ZR. That most likely not happening! RDPS is always way over done with ZR totals, cut them by 1/2-3/4 you might be close. At least we hope it’s like usual


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