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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

Poimen said:
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Dewpoints (even with them being higher this run) are low enough to where many areas could see brief freezing rain to start at the very least, that’s a problem, and thats the big difference vs the December system, do not want to see any cold trends with this one
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Dewpoints (even with them being higher this run) are low enough to where many areas could see brief freezing rain to start at the very least, that’s a problem, and thats the big difference vs the December system, do not want to see any cold trends with this one
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But the trend lately seems to be the models and storms coming in bigger as we get closer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In the Triad, I think about a trace-1" of snow and ice accums somewhere in the ballpark of 0.1-0.2" or so. It wouldn't be a bad idea to test them just in case
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Thank you, we all LOVE winter weather. Some have to be concerned about ’certain” types of weather such as a loss of power event. Shows the critical role role of our meteorologists.

I, ADORE ALL weather like y’all. ... However, Loss of power adds additional concern for my nephew. Again, Thanks Eric.
 
SWVAwxfan said:
Surry County usually does well in winter. Although Roxboro and Roanoke Rapids are in the lead so far this winter.
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Give it time. Outside mtns, Mayberry will pull it off. Still got Feb/March
From eastern wx to Amx to here. The good ole days seeing BF and powerstroke with his $$$ signs racking up plowing. Now we chase flizzards and freezing drizzle
 
Lickwx said:
Really ? I didn’t think the last storm came in bigger .
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Euro and NAM didn't jump on board until a couple of days out. All of the models showed a better storm as it got closer to Wednesday.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro and NAM didn't jump on board until a couple of days out. All of the models showed a better storm as it got closer to Wednesday.
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Not saying what they showed for everyone actually happened. But the models did improve as we got closer.
 
WRAL calling for flurries in the Triangle to 1 inch of snow for northern counties Saturday night, and freezing rain Sunday morning up to .25 inch for northern counties.
 
WXRISK map is clowery, going way too high
 
Keep in mind these zr maps only show how much qpf falls in freezing conditions, not how much will actually accrue. ZR accumulation is most efficient with temps in the 20s and light to moderate rates at best. Models seem to indicate more marginal temperatures in the 30-32 range as the heavier precipitation moves in which will really cut down on how much can freeze on things. Still looks like a significant ice storm, but the RGEM is way too cold IMO.
 
iGRXY said:
The valley along pickens and oconee counties is always warmer than other parts of the upstate. Always heard it's due to the amount of Nuclear reactors on the lakes that warms the surrounding areas. Probably east of highway 178 in pickens towards GSP and Gaffney stand the best chance of seeing ZR at this time but if models continue to trend colder and colder like they have been and we get In-situ CAD from early precip into those low DPs then a lot of things are on the table here.
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There was a storm 4-5 years ago, HSP was the absolute southern extent forecasted to get ZR, it made it all the way to Athens GA, causing extensive damage there
 
Be interesting at sunset tommorow. What the sky conditions and dps are. That will tell the tale. On Cad /frzng rain I usually take the softest,least severe against the most severe short range and cam suites. Meet in the middle. Then examine the onset current obs and let the pendullum point toward the worst or softest short range model outputs depending on trends,radar and surface obs. Usually works out pretty good. Im pretty confident qpf will be there. Minimum.75 max prob 1.10 territory. H5 track is set in stone. About worse there is. Parent LP in Illinois to south of ocracoke coastal transfer. So well see supper time tomorrow night. Im fairly confident at this hour, all triad areas and to the n@ w meet wsw criteria. But thats off model casting. Again rubber meets road between 5 to 8pm tommorow night. When we see current obs, most importantly DP and WB temps,HP location etc. Also a front end half inch will do a lot to lock in a insutu cad. Those are the what ifs to be answered over next 18 hrs.
 
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