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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

Headed to Hendersonville fri and Saturday. I’m big mad I’m not gonna see snow.
 
Really the first time I've focused on this threat. So we basically have the Canadian showing a bad ice storm. The euro has shifted north into VA, and the GFS(s) never really showed much. Looking at the 0Z NAM, it looks like it would at least have initial ice. Andaaab.JPG we also have the 0z CFS (it is, what it is):
 
DP right before this are very very low in the teens and right around 20 degrees. Call me crazy but I would think that would be a very good start to look at. That makes me nervous that as we get closer and with snow cover to our north and a meso high continually showing up in the NE and MA that this one will trend colder as we get closer.
 
So far through 51 on the NAM the CAD is building in more and the High is further south. The vort looks healthier and a bit slower but not by much.
 
DP right before this are very very low in the teens and right around 20 degrees. Call me crazy but I would think that would be a very good start to look at. That makes me nervous that as we get closer and with snow cover to our north and a meso high continually showing up in the NE and MA that this one will trend colder as we get closer.
Yeah, I think the very low dew points are the wildcard. Definitely out of my league in figuring out if an in-situ or hybrid CAD can win out. Here's Saturday's mid-day dewpoints (12z NAM):
aaab.JPG
 
NAM put ice down much further south. Went from the VA/NC border down to the I40 corridor at 1pm
 
Gonna take some big changes to get anything appreciable out of this for us here......been a very long time since we have seen a significant ice storm IMBY, that said the air mass in place is going to be pretty damn good, but need a lot of help to get more than a bit of snow and sleet going to rain this far east.
 
Gonna take some big changes to get anything appreciable out of this for us here......been a very long time since we have seen a significant ice storm IMBY, that said the air mass in place is going to be pretty damn good, but need a lot of help to get more than a bit of snow and sleet going to rain this far east.
Agreed. Right now I say if you’re west of 77 and along/north of 85 this is one you’re going to want to watch closely. Don’t know if it’s a trend yet but the NAM came in with a much better push of dryer DPs and had ice holding on longer and much further south. Still 3 1/2 days left so plenty of changes left to go.
 
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