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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

It's been cold since Wednesday, so it won't take much ice on top of snow to make the roads bad around here.
 
I was just awaken by the loudest crack of thunder. Apparently though, the cell was quite elevated and there's quite a bit of dry air through the column, because I only got a brief downpour. Probably the closest thing I've ever witnessed to a "dry" thunderstorm.

CAPE (100 J/KG) and LI's (-1) aren't impressive, but Mid-Level Lapse Rates are registering at 8.5 C/KM.
 
27/13 here after a low of 24. Clouds starting to roll in from the west. If it gets overcast early and holds temps down a few degrees below forecast, that could have a big effect on how low temperatures go when evaporational cooling starts
 
SouthATLwx said:
I was just awaken by the loudest crack of thunder. Apparently though, the cell was quite elevated and there's quite a bit of dry air through the column, because I only got a brief downpour. Probably the closest thing I've ever witnessed to a "dry" thunderstorm.

CAPE (100 J/KG) and LI's (-1) aren't impressive, but Mid-Level Lapse Rates are registering at 8.5 C/KM.
Click to expand...

Dry air confirmed:

FWD.gif
 
This is one of those events where the upstate could see more Sleet than anything.

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For this area the 3k was colder than the NAM but both models held temps at or just below freezing in the northern Triad through 10 a.m. The 3k had surface temps here around 31 while the NAM was at 32. But for whatever reason, the 3k accrual maps were less than the NAM (for the Triad)
 
Bsud said:
This is one of those events where the upstate could see more Sleet than anything.

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Click to expand...

I don’t think we get anything in the upstate. Except for close to the NC/SC border


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Bsud said:
This is one of those events where the upstate could see more Sleet than anything.

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Click to expand...
No, I am afraid that this will be mostly a rain event for a lot of folks. Nothing in the thermals right now that would indicate sleet will be the predominant p-type.
 
Can say in my area both NAMs are way too warm for both temps and DPs for 10am from the most recent run. I’m sitting at 32/21 and I should be up to 36/24 according to them. Don’t know how that unfolds throughout the day but if it’s off on the high end by that much right now, then this will be something to watch closely
 
Also I didn’t think clouds were supposed to be rolling in this fast? It’s getting thick here
 
I do not believe this output from the RGEM. It is much colder at the surface and the mid levels than the rest. This is the FRAM output. Posted for posterity sake.

fram_acc.us_ma.png
 
Poimen said:
I do not believe this output from the RGEM. It is much colder at the surface and the mid levels than the rest. This is the FRAM output. Posted for posterity sake.

fram_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
I think the location of the ice may be pretty accurate. Obviously the amounts are overdone
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I think the location of the ice may be pretty accurate. Obviously the amounts are overdone
Click to expand...
I think there will be a fine line from troutman north to where to ice is going to be. I'm just hoping for an overachieving front side band of snow lol
 
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