CAMs coming into range pretty aggressively, lol, they also still show that little front band 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah if your just looking at the map it even shows nearly .45 zr imby, but when I check the soundings, they show a brief window of ip followed by rain and not really a zr sounding there. Makes me suspicious
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
That model has a cold bias like the icon has a warm bias. Gotta add at least 2 to 3 degrees
how much snow will Columbia sc get
Does it have a cold bias in CAD setups? Or is it more likely to be realistic with its representation here?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Well for example, with that system in December. It was spitting out huge ice totals like it is right now. And most areas just got a cold rain.
Interesting battle set up with Globals and short-range/higher resolution. Allan Huffman alludes to it on his latest tweet. If interested
Wouldn’t want to clear out before stuff moves in, for example, notice where it’s more clear = Radiational cooling and lower temps 
Yeah, this model has shown this types of output in the past (and ended up wrong). The only thing that keeps me thinking things may end up a little more icy than what the other models are showing is the very low dew points that will be initially in place. This type of low level cold tends to over perform (more than modeled) with staying power. Maybe the CAMs look could be close to reality.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Global models for the most part can not handle CAD, esp the Euro and GFS because they parameterize a lot of local and mesoscale feedbacks that are necessary for the erosion of CAD. If you’re gonna look at global models with CAD, the CMC is usually the best
Nomanslandva
Member
Our last bad one was 94.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How did the cmc handle the cad event in December?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Its depiction of the areal extent of ZR was close to what actually happened. It was a tad on the cold side if anything but wasn’t that far off. Fram model adjusted ice was arguably the best with last December’s event
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I figured it may have been a bit too cold. We do have a much cooler air mass this time so the CMC may be much more accurate this go round.
Understood. It appears that NWS is leaning on Globals more? I know we say "toss" at this range on the globals...
Dec. 2002 is our benchmark ice storm out my way just south of GSO. 0.75”-1.00” ice accrual. Power was out for 2-3 weeks.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
One difference from that storm is this as well
I find it interesting if that front end area of precip endsup overperforming and locking in a CAD dome much quicker (3km does that in the foothills)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that doesn’t make any sense if they are, experienced forecasters in NC really should know better than to take the Euro and GFS over the CAMs when it comes to CAD. For winter storms like Jan 16-18 2018 that are largely driven by CVA, globals are still pretty useful in the short range imo.
iGRXY
Member
The CAMS are what I feared in terms of models not picking up just how dry and cold the surface really is with the DPs being spit out. Just seemed like the temps were not corresponding and falling even with those low DPs like they should on these model runs. Even the NAM and RGEM look like they're not falling enough with the wet bulb. Do I think it will be as south as the CAMS are showing? No but areas along and north of 85 definitely should keep a close eye.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah precipitation naturally helps lock in CAD (in-situ) thru condensational deposition in the mid levels coupled to sub cloud layer evaporation and sublimation, creates a low level inversion that increases static stability near the top of the cad dome, thereby reinforcing it.